Let's recap the INSANE week in markets:
Monday: MLK holiday (markets closed)
Tuesday: 870-point Dow crash on tariff/Fed fears
Wednesday: SCOTUS signals Fed saved, relief rally
Thursday: Intel surges, P&G disappoints, markets digest
Here's what it all means... 🧵 What this week taught us:
Lesson 1: Markets overshoot on fear (Tuesday's -870 point crash)
Lesson 2: Information resolves quickly (SCOTUS signals within 24 hours)
Lesson 3: Quality matters more than ever (earnings divergence)
Lesson 4: Multiple risks exist simultaneously

Procter & Gamble just reported Q2 2026 earnings (fiscal Q2).
Results: BEAT on revenue, MISS on EPS
Stock reaction: DOWN 2% pre-market
This is your real-time consumer health check. Here's what it reveals... 🧵 The numbers:
Revenue: $21.9B (beat by $100M)
EPS: $1.72 (missed $1.88 estimate)
Organic sales growth: +3% (slowest in 2 years)
Beat on top line, miss on bottom line = Margin compression
Consumers are buying, but P&G can't pass all costs through.

Two days ago, everyone was convinced:
"SCOTUS will destroy Fed independence!"
"Markets will crash!"
"Gold to $5,000!"
"Constitutional crisis!"
Today:
SCOTUS signals Fed protected.
Markets rallying.
Gold consolidating, not mooning.
Here's what we got wrong (and right)... 🧵 What we got RIGHT:
✅ The Cook case was a genuine institutional risk
✅ Precious metals were correct hedge
✅ Markets would react to SCOTUS signals
✅ Dollar reserve status concerns were real
✅ Powell attending arguments was significant
The risk identification was spot-on.

After yesterday's SCOTUS signals that Fed independence will hold, gold should have crashed 5-10%.
It didn't.
Gold: $4,700 (down only 0.4%)
Silver: $94 (down only 1%)
The fact that precious metals are HOLDING tells you something important... 🧵 The thesis was:
SCOTUS protects Fed → Institutional risk off → Gold crashes
That's what SHOULD have happened if gold's rally was ONLY about the Cook case.
But gold barely budged.
Why?

This is THE earnings week of Q1 2026:
Intel (today after close)
P&G (today)
GE Aerospace (today)
Abbott Labs (today)
Capital One (today)
Plus SCOTUS Fed signals + Greenland relief.
Here's what actually matters... 🧵 The pattern so far this earnings season:
✅ 70%+ beating expectations
❌ Stock reactions: Muted or negative
Why?
Valuations at 22x forward earnings mean beats are PRICED IN.
What's NOT priced in? Guidance uncertainty.

What "caused" Tuesday's crash:
Trump's Greenland tariff threats + Supreme Court Fed case = "RISK OFF!"
Investors sold:
U.S. stocks (SPY -2%)
Dollar (weakened)
Treasuries (yields spiked)
Gold surged. Silver surged. Flight to safety. This is the 2026 playbook on repeat:
Step 1: Trump announces something extreme (tariffs, threats, fires someone)
Step 2: Markets panic, sell off 2-3%
Step 3: Reality sets in (courts block, deal announced, threat softens)

Intel reports Q4 earnings in 4 hours.
The stock is up 10% pre-earnings, hit a 2-year high of $53, and is up 145% in the past year.
This is either the greatest comeback story in tech—or a massive bull trap. Here's what to watch... 🧵 The setup:
Intel was left for DEAD in 2024:
Stock hit $17 (lowest in a decade)
Losing to Nvidia in AI
Losing to TSMC in manufacturing
Losing relevance entirely
Then everything changed.