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Jompy Profile picture
@Jonpy99
Jan 24 • 88 tweets • 27 min read • Read on X
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1/ As promised, here’s the second part of the tank refurb and production research and BTRZ tank refurb/modernization capabilities! Since this has turned out waaaay too long, this first thread is mainly about T-90s! Image
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
3/ Then IFVs:
4/ And finally the first half of the thread about tanks, were we discussed T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s:
5/ And as always, first I want to thank @CovertCabal and @A36848080 in particular for helping with the sat imagery. Check Covert’s video on the topic as well!
6/ DISCLAIMER: many people will read this thread expecting to have all the answers and all claims properly backed by quantified data. Unfortunately, there’s a limit to OSINT, so I don’t have answers for questions like whether a T-72B hull can be made into a T-90"M" (obr. 2023).
7/ As I already explained several times in previous threads, Russia has switched to infantry-intensive tactics, as they have yielded better results when it comes to taking bigger amounts of Ukrainian territory:
8/ Therefore, it’s not surprising that the share of Russian AFV losses, including tank losses, has dramatically decreased:
9/ That said, they have most clearly risen in the last quarter of 2025, with more mechanized attacks:
10/ This was already much discussed, so now we’ll focus on the specifics of T-72 and T-90 production/refurb/modernization and the likely future of the Russian tank fleet.
11/ Unlike most types of tanks, T-72Bs and T-90s were the backbone of the Russian tank fleet before 2022 (tho small numbers of T-80s were also active), which means most units were staffed with these.
12/ This also means that, for the most part, T-72Bs and T-90s were present in storage depots in relatively small numbers: Image
13/ In the case of T-72s, almost half of those in storage were older T-72 Urals/As, pretty obsolete and mostly out of service bar some tank units of the Central Military District. In the case of T-90s, mostly original T-90s from the 1990s.
14/ Which means that, for over 4,319 tank losses according to Oryx, and with just ~3,000 tanks in service before the war, Russia had to press back into service a lot of older tank types, as we already saw in the previous thread to replenish losses.
15/ But of course, the most important thing when it comes to T-72s and 90s is that they are still being produced (refurbed and modernized in the case of 72s). Not just repairs like other tanks.
16/ So, let’s see how things have developed lately: we can see that overall T-72s and T-90s have remained at stable shares of the Russian tank losses over the war. Image
Image
17/ Examining production rates will help us solve the enigma of how Russia is replenishing losses and how many of these tanks do they still have and produce. Image
18/ But, before starting with the actual analysis of UVZ and its production capabilities, it’s worth looking at the how the industry managed to scale up T-90M production. Image
19/ By now I think we all know about the classified UVZ documents leaked by @Tatarigami_UA and his Frontelligence Insight team.
20/ According to the leaked Russian procurement documents, there are plans to maintain and even slightly scale up Russian T-90M production and T-72B3 refurb/modernization rates.
21/ Despite many people’s skepticism, we have ample proof that by 2025 Russia has managed to scale up T-90M production (not refurb from older T-90s1) to ~200-250 units per year.
22/ Many people claim that we don’t have footage of these deliveries and that it’s all a Russia propaganda ruse. But we do have a lot of footage of T-90M and T-72B3 trainloads leaving UVZ.
23/ I’m just gonna post a bunch of videos to back it up, predicting a lot of answers to this thread saying that I’m a deluded idiot.
24/
25/
26/ Obviously not everything is recorded, after all this is a military affair. Even just what we’ve seen is not all officially listed.
27/ For what my word is worth, I too have seen trainloads of tanks coming from UVZ that haven’t been published, nor I can share publicly.
28/ Some will claim that we have no proof of actual new production, that it’s all older original T-90s obr. 1992, T-90As and even T-90Ss seized from third countries like India that had ordered them.
29/ True, a batch of Indian T-90Ss in UVZ were seized when the war started, and some T-90As were modernized to T-90Ms.
30/ But the catch is that there were never that many older T-90s for all T-90Ms to be modernizations of the former. At all. Barely 1:2 T-90Ms were modernizations before the war.
31/ There were never enough older T-90s produced (and not exported to other militaries) for T-90M numbers to make sense if they were all modernizations of older hulls.
32/
33/
34/ Russia has lost so far 48 T-90As, 11 T-90s and 152 T-90Ms. And to this we should add another 20-30% unseen losses, as always. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack… x.com/front_ukrainia…
35/ Before the war some original T-90s and T-90As had been converted to Ms, some T-90As given to Syria and in 2021 they had around 85 T-90Ms and converted more T-90As once the war started.
36/ We also found 112 older T-90s stored in the 22nd Central Tank Storage Base, which by 2023 were gone. Image
37/ And it’s likely there were some more indoors and in other places, like these seen T-90As stored in Crimea in 2022 and given to Wagner:
38/ But then, Russia is estimated to field over 370 T-90Ms at the start of 2025 according to TMB2025. We see production of these new MBTs at UVZ.
39/
40/
41/
42/ We see them everywhere in the rear, from Rovsgardia (let’s remember that after the Wagner coup in 2023 they started to receive tanks as well):
43/ In the rear everywhere (@WillKnowler for lots more proofs in this regard):
@WillKnowler 44/ And of course in the frontline. Yes, losses have decreased a lot, but so have all tank losses in the last year and half. Image
Image
@WillKnowler 45/ Tho it’s worth pointing out that the last loss occurred a while ago and it didn’t have the most recent iteration of the T-90M, but rather an older upgrade package.
@WillKnowler 46/ Then again, with the increasing danger of drones and a static front, tanks have increasingly been used as artillery pieces, which makes them less visible:
@WillKnowler 47/ Some reliable proof from the actual frontline:
@WillKnowler 48/ And also, turtle tanks usually are of the more modern types of tanks, despite some thinking they’re rather old, decrepit tanks that have no other use:
@WillKnowler 49/
@WillKnowler 50/ For those saying that Russia not launching a massive mechanized attack is a sign of them having run out of hardware. See this: concentrations of assets are easily destroyed before they even reach the frontline.
@WillKnowler 51/ And, while it’s been said many times before, I’ll say it again: these new tactics have proven more cost-effective at taking Ukrainian positions. Mobility is the key now, at all costs, and they don’t care about their own men.
@WillKnowler 52/ Finally, the massive Russian army size expansion since late 2022 has too much to do with formations having less armor than what the doctrine says.
@WillKnowler 53/ And with new formations are created and implemented, the same amount of armor has to be distributed among them:
@WillKnowler 54/ As @Rebel44CZ explained so well yesterday in the quoted thread, Russia probably has a roughly equal tank fleet in size as it was prewar (with some caveats):
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ 55/ Tho I agree with @KofmanMichael here:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 56/ In any case, this fits precisely with what’s been discussed many times: Russia is reconstituting and replenishing its core army far from the front, while using cheap meat and obsolete equipment to keep pressuring Ukraine. Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 57/ Here’s a recent interview with some Russian tankers from the 1st GTA. Interesting to note that a commander says: “"With the advent of drones, we lost some of our equipment. We're now rebuilding our complement”. kp.ru/daily/27750.5/…
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 58/ To be honest, it shoudln’t come as a surprise:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 59/ But back to the matter of whether new T-90M are actually produced or mere modernizations, it’s also worth pointing out that despite unfeasible low numbers, T-90As are still seen, tho very rarely:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 60/ Just like some other systems like T-80Us, they’re a critically endangered species, probably in the low dozens ballpark left in service.
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 61/ And also in UVZ, but not being modernized, but rather just merely repaired.
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 62/ And we can also tell apart newly made T-90M hulls from T-90A modernizations, and T-90a modernizations aren’t too common: Image
Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 63/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 64/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 65/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 66/ Even field repairs suggest active productions, as otherwise these spare parts would be extremely hard to find in the rear direct to the actual frontline:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 67/ Russia also anticipated the problem of using Western-made components and switched to other sources not threatened by sanctions:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 68/ With ALL THIS EVIDENCE to back up that there’s actual newly made T-90M production, let’s go back to Tatarigami’s info. See what the planned production figures are:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 69/ We can also see what’s actually produced vs refurbed/modernized:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 70/ And the types of tanks, which surprisingly includes T-72B/B1s and T-72B3/B3Ms for T-90M2s:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 71/ True, 2026 is an odd year for some unclear reason with minimum planned output, but the overall trend matches the current 200-250 T-90M rate. And it also shows intention of further improving T-90M capabilities, with the M2 version:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 72/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 73/ Some more information on the T-90M2:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 74/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 75/ Which fits too with the ongoing research and production of new upgrade packages for T-90Ms (and also T-80BVMs and T-72B3s):
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 76/
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 77/ It’s also notable that past 2029 there is no more planned actual production, but only overhauls and modernizations:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 78/ While not mentioned at all, we also have to consider armored vehicles based on the T-90, like engineering ones:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 79/ There’s no shortage of data about the actual technicalities of procuring parts for the production and modernization of all these tanks:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 80/ Not just Western, OSINT and Russian sources back up this production rate, but also Ukrainian ones:
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 81/ And also the appearance since mid 2025 of ~40 T-90s in the yards outside UVZ, probably there precisely to be modernized according to this plan. Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 82/ AND also ~100 T-72Bs coming from the 1311th central tank storage base, which hadn’t seen activity for over 2 years.
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 83/ Coincidentally, the amount of T-72Bs to be modernized to T-90M2s, as seen before, is similar to the amount in the 1311th at the start of 2025: 263 T-72Bs. Now it’s dropped since a hundred were already shipped to UVZ. Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 84/ As a temporary conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine.
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 85/ In conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine. Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 86/ Just to make it clear, there is my estimation: Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 87/ Now, I don’t know how exactly they're gonna turn T-72Bs into T-90M2s, that’s far from my expertise. But there’s something else to consider, and that’s stored T-72s… Image
@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 88/ That’s for now! More on that in the (I hope) third and last part of tanks, particularly T-72s, and BTRZs! Kudos to everyone, in this case specially @WillKnowler, @Rhaescuporis and @T_90AK for obvious reasons, and also Raptorama for making the graphics! Thanks everyone!

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More from @Jonpy99

Jompy Profile picture
Jan 20
There clearly has been a huge movement of stored towed artillery pieces since late summer/early autumn 2025, but unfortunately we lack footage. Image
Just look at all those barrels cannibalized at artillery arsenals like Planovyi and compare them with the prewar situation or even just over a year before late 2025: Image
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And also an increasing number of barreless pieces, like these 2A36s: Image
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Read 11 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Nov 20, 2025
Just got another update from the 111th. Some interesting things: by now most tanks in this base are the ones in this spot (pics are from September on Google Earth): Image
Like in most bases, the scrapyard has been mostly cleaned out: Image
And most of the refurbed BMPs have been dispatched and are no longer in the 111th: Image
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Read 6 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Nov 13, 2025
The pace at which these BMPs are being pulled out of this base is so unexpected. Most rows are already half empty, and it's only been 2 months since they started. I was never expecting this from the 111th, it's so noticable yoh don't even need high res imagery to see it.
T-54/55s as well, but that's not so surprising.
Just to make it more clear, these were the rows of BMPs in the main area of the 111th base that didn't look (for the most part) like were missing structural components such as turrets or engines back in 2022: Image
Read 7 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Nov 6, 2025
1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part. Image
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
3/ Then IFVs:
Read 87 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Oct 30, 2025
Lyman looking as bad as Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.
There's one fundamental reason for everything that we're seeing lately, and it's been in the making for 2 years already: Zelensky & co refusing to understand that this is a war of survival and not enacting a proper mobilization. Corruption, incompetence, political interests...
Call it whatever you want, but at some point it's not even Syrskiy's fault anymore. YOU CAN'T HOLD GROUND WITHOUT INFANTRY. Everything and everywhere is atrociously undermanned.
Read 8 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Oct 8, 2025
Since some people are wondering how many of the "poor" and "worse" tanks can ever be brought back to service, let me explain it once more: ALL OF THEM. It's just a matter of money and time, and how willing the Kremlin is to waste its assets. Image
Take for example the 2456th tank storage base. The main facility is the one already known, but to the right there's the old scrapyard. Right when the war started they were scrapping T-62s and 64s there, but they stopped for obvious reasons: Image
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We included this tanks in our count, as explained by @CovertCabal in his video about the 2456th, because the ones remaning weren't yet scrapped, tho they're in a terrible state. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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