Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 26 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Stubb: We need to reverse the narrative that Putin is winning the war in Ukraine. He is not.

He tried to take over Ukraine. He failed. He tried to stop NATO from expanding. Also failed. He tried to keep NATO’s defense spending down. It’s now at 5%. 1/
Stubb: My big fear is that the Russians are going to say “nyet” [no to a deal on Ukraine].

Ukraine, the US, and Europe are now on the same page, there is a clear some progress in negotiations. But it is still unclear what the Russians are going to do. 2/
Stubb: The US is able to project power, but Russia is not.

Put simply, what the US did in Venezuela in less than 24 hours is what Putin tried — and failed — to do in Kyiv four years ago.

One million died in casualties later, here we are. 3/
Stubb: If the war in Ukraine ends, Russian soldiers go home and likely receive no bonuses.

There is little incentive for Putin to end the war — not because he is winning, but because he knows he will lose. This creates a catch-22 negotiators have to deal with. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 28
Russian strikes leave apartments icy. People wake up shivering, warm their hands by ovens, and wear 3-5 pairs of socks just to get through the day.

Tetiana from Kyiv: Cold. Very cold. Everything is icy. I turn on the oven and stand there to warm myself. That’s life.

1/
Daria: With a child, it’s impossible to stay in the apartment. We came yesterday for two or three hours, and I froze so badly my throat started to hurt.

2/
Yeva: How many pairs of socks? One, two, three and boots. At home, I put on two more pairs. It’s extremely cold.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 28
Ben Hodges: It's naive to believe Russia wants to be a responsible global player.

The Kremlin represents a government killing Ukrainians daily, including civilians and children. To say they were “almost friends” is absurd and deeply misguided. 1/
Hodges: U.S. has not shown real commitment to Ukraine, and Ukrainian leaders rightly doubt any promises.

Trump administration hasn’t delivered weapons or guarantees. European allies must show their support, as the U.S. risks destroying trust with its inconsistent actions. 2/
Hodges: If Russia gets more of Donbass, Ukraine won’t be satisfied, and Russia won’t stop.

The U.S. should provide security guarantees, but this requires acknowledging Russia as the aggressor — a stance the Trump administration hasn’t shown willingness to take. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 28
Russian strike drones hit a passenger train in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. If we call things by their names, this was another act of terrorism.

As of now, 4 people are confirmed dead. 1/
In any country in the world, a drone strike on a civilian train would be classified the same way — as a terrorist attack.

There is no military objective, and there can be none, in killing civilians inside a train car. 2/
More than 200 people were on board the train. In the car hit by one of the Russian drones, there were 18 passengers. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
Snyder: The United States in its current form wants to undermine European democracy.

In particular, it wants to undermine European Union, and those two things work together. The Union helps create the conditions for democracy. 1/
Snyder: There’s no moment when we were innocent and everyone else was guilty. History’s never like that.

History gives us a sense of possibility. The more you know about the past, the more scenarios you see. All kinds of things have actually been tried and did happen. 2/
Snyder: The EU is a positive example where state sovereignty is strengthened because states are working together.

Some Americans and lots of Russians want to break up the EU to weaken European states, not because they care about European nations. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 27
Ukraine’s drone and cyber attacks inside Russia set the reference for MI6.

Britain’s MI6 is shifting from intelligence collection to active covert action against Russia — FP.

This includes sabotage, resistance support, and grey-zone operations.

1/ Image
New MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli explicitly invokes WWII-style SOE tactics: disrupting enemies, supporting resistance, and operating “between peace and war.”

Ukraine is described as the only country that has successfully fought back in this grey zone.

2X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 27
Kuleba: Russia uses talks to buy time, not to stop the war.

They are open to talks, but too far from settlement to stop.

They will keep bombing and advancing. For Ukraine, nothing has changed — we must survive what may be the hardest winter of our independence.

1/
Kuleba: A ceasefire is impossible without three detailed agreements approved by Ukraine: security guarantees, Ukraine’s reconstruction, and EU membership.

Without these, there are no real guarantees the deal will hold — and no reason for Ukraine to make concessions.

2/
Kuleba: EU accession is first of all about money. The EU budget runs in 7-year cycles, and the next one starts in 2028.

If funding for Ukraine’s enlargement isn’t built into that budget by 2027, adding it later will be extremely hard.

2027 is discussed in the EU itself.

3X
Read 4 tweets

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