Thread by @Mylovanov

Stubb: We need to reverse the narrative that Putin is winning the war in Ukraine. He is not.

He tried to take over Ukraine. He failed. He tried to stop NATO from expanding. Also failed. He tried to keep NATO’s defense spending down. It’s now at 5%. 1/

Stubb: My big fear is that the Russians are going to say “nyet” [no to a deal on Ukraine].

Ukraine, the US, and Europe are now on the same page, there is a clear some progress in negotiations. But it is still unclear what the Russians are going to do. 2/

Stubb: The US is able to project power, but Russia is not.

Put simply, what the US did in Venezuela in less than 24 hours is what Putin tried — and failed — to do in Kyiv four years ago.

One million died in casualties later, here we are. 3/

Stubb: If the war in Ukraine ends, Russian soldiers go home and likely receive no bonuses.

There is little incentive for Putin to end the war — not because he is winning, but because he knows he will lose. This creates a catch-22 negotiators have to deal with. 4X

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