Honza Černý Profile picture
Jan 28 14 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 THREAD: China just pulled the emergency brake on silver leverage. Here’s why stackers should smile. 🪙🔥 Image
1/
China just announced a MAJOR margin hike on precious metals futures.

Starting Jan 29, 2026, margin on silver (Ag T+D) jumps from 44% → 60%.

That’s not a tweak.
That’s a warning shot.
2/
When exchanges raise margin this aggressively, it means only one thing:

👉 Volatility is coming
👉 Risk is rising
👉 Leverage is being punished

Paper traders are about to feel it.
3/
Higher margin = less leverage.
Less leverage = forced liquidations.
Forced liquidations = weak hands flushed out.

This is how exchanges clean the casino before the real move.
4/
Official excuse?

“Market volatility”
“Investor protection”

Real reason?

👉 The market is too tight
👉 Physical supply is stressed
👉 They don’t want defaults
5/
Notice something important:

This does NOT affect physical silver holders.

No margin calls.
No forced selling.
No liquidation risk.

Only paper players bleed here.
6/
This is the difference between:
📄 Paper promises
vs
🪙 Metal in hand

One needs permission to exist.
The other doesn’t.
7/
China doesn’t raise margins when markets are calm.

They do it when pressure is building and control matters.

And they even warned:
👉 Further margin increases may follow.
Translation: buckle up.
8/
Every margin hike widens the crack between paper and physical.

Every rule change confirms the same truth:

Silver isn’t volatile —
👉 the system around it is.
9/
Stackers don’t panic on margin hikes.
We don’t use leverage.
We don’t chase charts.

We accumulate reality.
10/
If you hold physical silver:

Relax.

If you trade paper silver:

Pray.

Same metal.
Very different outcomes.
11/
This isn’t bearish.
This isn’t neutral.
This is structurally bullish for physical silver.
The tighter the rules, the closer we are.
12/
Stack quietly.
Hold patiently.
Let the paper system eat itself.

🪙 Silver doesn’t need leverage. It needs ownership.

#Silver #SilverStackers #PhysicalSilver #PaperVsPhysical #China #Ag #Commodities #Stackers
@threadreaderapp unroll

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Honza Černý

Honza Černý Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @honzacern1

Jan 27
🧵What if the West tried to cap silver while China trades +$20/oz?Image
1/
What happens if the West keeps “spot” suppressed while China trades +$20/oz higher?

That spread isn’t a market condition. It’s a vacuum cleaner. 🧲🥈
2/
A $20/oz premium is a flashing sign to every producer, refiner, wholesaler:

“Sell physical here, not there.”
Metal flows to the highest bid. Always. 🌏➡️🇨🇳
Read 17 tweets
Jan 25
“Strategic Reserves Sound Great — Until You Ask: Where’s the Silver?” Image
1️⃣
The U.S. just proposed a $2.5B strategic reserve for critical minerals.
Sounds strong.
Looks decisive.

But every serious silver stacker should ask one simple question:
👉 Where will the silver come from?
2️⃣
This isn’t the year 2000.
We are in a structural physical shortage.

• inventories are thinning
• deliveries are tight
• recycling isn’t enough
• new mines don’t appear overnight

Paper promises don’t fill vaults.
Metal does.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 24
🧵 THREAD: Why Silver Is Not “Going Up”… It’s Being FORCED Up 🥈
1/
China’s banks will see ¥37.9 TRILLION in deposits mature in 2026.

That’s dormant capital looking for safety.
If just 5% moves into physical silver → 1,718 TONNES of demand.

Let that sink in.
2/
1,718 tonnes = ~7% of GLOBAL annual mine supply.
Not ETF flows.
Not paper contracts.
Not “sentiment”.

PHYSICAL. METAL.
The market doesn’t have it.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 19
🧵 THREAD: Japan just broke the bond illusion — and Silver knows it Image
1/
Japan’s bond market is quietly screaming.

3M → 0.70%
3Y → 1.38%
10Y → 2.27%
20Y → 3.26%
30Y → 3.61%

This is not “normalization.”
This is loss of control.
2/
Japan is the most indebted major economy on Earth (~260%debt-to-GDP).

Its system only works if yields stay artificially low.
They’re not.

When long-end yields rise like this, the math breaks — fast.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 18
🧵 THREAD: Silver & the End Game nobody wants to talk about 🧵Image
1️⃣

Trump just announced 10% tariffs on EU & UK starting Feb 1, 2026, rising to 25% by June 1, 2026.

The UK hosts the LBMA.
This is not politics.
This is a physical metals logistics shock.
2️⃣
We’ve seen this movie before.
Last time tariff risk appeared:

physical silver rushed out of London
into the U.S.

silver traded in steep backwardation

COMEX came dangerously close to breaking

Today the system is far weaker.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 18
🧵 THREAD: Trump’s Tariff Playbook works for stocks — but breaks on Silver 🥈
1️⃣
The Kobeissi Letter just laid out President Trump’s exact tariff playbook.

They’re right about how markets react.
But they miss what breaks when tariffs become structural.
Stocks trade headlines.

Silver trades reality.
2️⃣
Yes — Trump’s tariff playbook is real:
• Weekend threats
• Delayed implementation
• Emotional selloffs
• Relief rallies
• “Deal coming” narrative

This has worked repeatedly for equities.

But silver is not an equity.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(