Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ An immediate 'energy ceasefire' is reported to have been agreed between Russia and Ukraine in talks in Abu Dhabi, supposedly ending Russian strikes on Ukrainian power and heating infrastructure. Russian warbloggers are angry about the move. ⬇️

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2016835488263426146

2/ Vladimir Romanov writes about the (as yet unconfirmed) rumours about the agreement:

"We are receiving information that, as of 07:00 today, the Russian Armed Forces have imposed a ban on firing:

– against any targets in Kyiv and the Kyiv region;

3/ "– against any infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine.

/Whether this information is accurate will be become clear in the next 24 hours, depending on the dynamics of the strikes (or lack thereof)."

4/ The news has been met with dismay among the more martial warbloggers, who see it as a capitulation. "Callsign 'LEON'" complains:

5/ "Fuck, I hope this is just a Ukrainian's wet dream. There's no way we can stop when most of the work is done and now we need to finish off the rest."

Similarly, the Wagner-linked "Alex Parker Returns" calls it a "disgrace".

6/ 'Belarusian Silovik' says that "a verbal (!) order not to attack Ukraine's energy sector has already been issued to various units by a certain date (I can't write it down, in case the source is compromised)."

7/ "Not everyone is aware of this order yet; it might get through, or it might be implemented locally. It's still unknown.

8/ "For example, one military unit received the order and the moratorium is already in effect this morning, while another hasn't, and there have been no restrictions so far."

9/ 'Two Majors' comments that the reported agreement is "certainly bad. Just when the real consequences (and even then, Kyiv has clearly exaggerated them) began to be felt, we're essentially giving them time for repairs and stabilisation."

10/ "On the other hand, [Russia's] leadership has committed to resolving/freezing the conflict, and this commitment must be demonstrated in action. Why this course was taken is a different question, not for us [to answer]. There are clearly economic and other reasons."

11/ "It's encouraging that the decision to suspend (rather than cease completely) is temporary, and while it's in effect, strikes on other targets will continue, and the Geran missiles [sic] will continue to accumulate."

12/ 'DSHRG Rusych' says they "don't understand the point of such a move, as winter will be over in a month or two, and the enemy's primary concern is to hold out and not freeze."

13/ "After that, Ukraine can easily break any ceasefire and, having stockpiled both long-range drones and air defense systems, continue military operations as usual.

Why was it necessary to start destroying the energy sector and then stop? It's not entirely clear."

14/ "Although, we hope Russia will finally switch to attacks on bridges, transport infrastructure, and other targets that, for unknown reasons, were either not hit or were hit only sporadically."

15/ 'Rybar' is likewise sceptical of the merits of an energy targeting moratorium, and implicitly acknowledges that the people that Russia claims to want to liberate are in fact not on Russia's side:

16/ "Since this morning, both Russian and Ukrainian media outlets have been buzzing with news that an agreement has allegedly been reached on a mutual cessation of attacks on energy facilities.

17/ "[I]f we piece together the information, it appears to be a temporary ban on such attacks. It seems to be linked to the next round of negotiations with the delegation from Ukraine, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi.

18/ "Does this make sense? If we are talking about a format of “you see the consequences, agree to our terms, or we will shut everything down,” then it is understandable.

19/ "A week-long break will not have much impact, as it is not much different from the usual technical pause between massive strikes.

20/ "If it's about sparing the Ukrainian population in cold weather, then it's pointless and will achieve nothing except giving the Kyiv regime the opportunity to boast about its ability to survive a harsh winter and reassure its populace that the war can continue.

21/ "As has been noted many times, strikes on the energy system, shipping, and other sectors of the already weakened Ukrainian economy are now a very good lever of pressure on the Kiev regime, even on the issue of territories. It is simply irrational not to use it.

22/ "And for those who want to argue that “in the center and east of so-called Ukraine, it is mainly our people © who live there, but they are simply intimidated, how can they be left without heat and electricity?”…

23/ …we suggest visiting Ukrainian city channels and reading the comments of those very same 'our people ©' there." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/romanov_92/509…
🔹 t.me/pozyvnoy_leon/…
🔹 t.me/apwagner/54517
🔹 t.me/belarusian_sil…
🔹 t.me/dva_majors/872…
🔹 t.me/rybar/77063
🔹 t.me/dshrg2/4540