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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Dec 17, 2025

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/2001371211985748284

Extremely funny watching people react to this AOC tweet by saying the poll is biased towards making progressives look good at the expense of moderates when the pollster is *literally me*.

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/2001371211985748284

My interpretation — based on the fact that Newsom also outran congressional Dems by a similar amount in our last poll — is that:

1) Vance is weak.
2) AOC/Newsom are very similar electorally but with slightly different coalitions. Newsom's better with whites, AOC with Latinos.

Newsom leads Vance by 7 (53.47 to 46.53, lol — rounding at the edges).

In that same poll, Dems led 52.9-47.1. The gap between Newsom and congressional Dems is basically ~identical to the gap between AOC and congressional Dems.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 20, 2025

I had a strong prior that the COVID response had tarnished the Democratic brand, and that it was doing lasting damage to them.

But our poll suggests, again, that what drives elite discourse aren't necessarily the same things that voters cared about.

theargumentmag.com/p/the-covid-po…

You've heard that line about 40% of America loving Trump no matter what and being his strongest soldiers on everything, right?

Just 13% of people strongly approve of how Trump handled COVID-19. (Voters have actual minds of their own.)

What do they think about the school closures?

It's certainly complicated, but mostly, they think it was quite understandable and necessary, even after all the time that's passed.

Read 6 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Oct 16, 2025

We did the math and the net effect of the Supreme Court nerfing the Voting Rights Act, after all the other gerrymandering, is likely that the maps take a consistent, pro-Republican bias roughly matching 2018’s — breakable, but it would be tough.

theargumentmag.com/p/is-the-supre…

It’s important to be clear about what would and wouldn’t happen. The maps do not give Republicans a permanent majority. They do make it very hard for Democrats to win the chamber (especially in presidential years). The net effect would probably be a return to 2018’s House bias.

We chose to game out one of the more aggressive scenarios: Republicans gain 11 seats (+ NC-01, which they may get anyway) post-VRA, along with all the other mid-cycle redistricting, and then Dems retaliate in IL/CA.

NY is tougher legally but could drag it down to D+4.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Oct 11, 2025

Bookmark it because it will probably blow up in my face: From polling and advertising data, neither Virginia nor New Jersey are tracking to be GOP wins and I remain baffled by the amount of people on X who think Republicans are within striking distance (~3 points) in either.

- The national generic ballot is D+3 right now, which is a 5 point shift left from 2024.
- Both states were Harris +6 in 2024.
- Democrats generally tend to have a turnout advantage in off-year elections.
- Democrats are leading polls.
- Democrats have big spending edges.

????

Republicans could obviously win the Virginia *ATTORNEY GENERAL* race, but that is because Jay Jones has dug himself a huge hole and is on track to monumentally underperform. Sears is not on the verge of beating Spanberger right now.

Read 4 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Apr 5, 2025

If you want a quick temperature check on how the political realities of this are unfolding in his administration, consider that Elon Musk has said absolutely nothing on Trump's signature policy (the tariffs) today, despite usually being Trump's #1 defender.

Bessent is reportedly looking for a way out, Tillis and *French Hill* are suddenly expressing openness to congressional laws on tariffs, and Republicans mostly seem shell-shocked. Another day or two of drops and you might see things shift, because this is a self-inflicted wound.

Basic reason is this: it seems callous to say, but while not everyone cares about transgender children, not everyone cares about immigrants, and not everyone cares about social justice, *everyone* cares about money. Recessions and depressions cripple every administration.

Read 7 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Mar 29, 2025

We have not and will not model Florida's 6th (FL-06). Split Ticket will not make any prediction here. But the race is close, as both sides acknowledge, and though a Democratic win would still be a HUGE upset, it is a possibility the GOP has braced for.

🧵on some things to note:

Firstly: this seat is Trump +30. Randy Fine is a terrible candidate and is probably costing the GOP quite a bit across the board in both turnout and persuasion.

But again: it was Trump +30. So keep that in mind for everything. An upset here would be monumental and unprecedented.

Secondly: the ELECTORATE that shows up on Tuesday will obviously not be Trump +30 (or the R+26 by registration that it was in 2024). Right now, we have an electorate that is a tick under R+8 in early voting, with two days to go, and it's ticking up at a pace of ~R+1 per day.

Read 8 tweets

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