Honza Černý Profile picture
Jan 30 14 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 Paper is panicking. Physical is disappearing. 🧵 Image
1/ A lot of old & silver miner stocks just hit limit down. That’s not a signal of weak metal. That’s a signal of forced selling and paper stress.
2/
Here’s the part that actually matters 👇

Major Chinese banks report that available gold bar vaults have been reset to ZERO.

Zero.
Not “low.”
Not “tight.”
Zero.
3/
Withdrawals are no longer instant.

A one-month advance booking is now required —
with no guarantee of delivery time.

That’s not normal market behavior.
That’s rationing.
4/
If gold were plentiful…
If supply were abundant…
If inventories were “fine”…

You wouldn’t need to wait a month
and still be told “maybe.”
5/
This is the split they don’t want you to see:

📉 Paper assets selling off
📉 Miner stocks crashing
📈 Physical metal becoming unavailable

Same market.
Two completely different realities.
6/
When banks restrict withdrawals, it’s not because metal is worthless.

It’s because metal suddenly matters more than money.

Screens can show any price.
Vaults can only show what’s actually there.
7/
Paper holders panic first.
Physical holders wait calmly.

Why?
Because you can’t margin-call a coin in your hand.
8/
Stacking physical metal isn’t about timing tops or bottoms.

It’s about owning something that doesn’t need permission to exist.
9/
Every time delivery gets delayed…
Every time vaults go “temporarily unavailable”…
Every time paper sells while metal vanishes…

Your thesis gets stronger.
10/
This is why stackers don’t chase noise.
We watch flows.
We watch availability.
We watch who’s locking the vault doors.
11/
Paper can be printed.
Contracts can be rolled.
Excuses can be made.

Physical metal?
It either exists — or it doesn’t.
12/
Stay patient.
Stay disciplined.
Keep stacking real metal.

Because when access disappears,
price is just the last thing to catch up.
#Silver #Gold #PhysicalMetal #Stackers #SoundMoney #RealAssets
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More from @honzacern1

Jan 29
🧵 THREAD: Silver isn’t rising. The system is thinning.Image
1️⃣
Silver at $113 and deliveries are still happening.
Not paper rolls.
Not cash settlement.

Physical delivery.
35 contracts issued.
35 contracts stopped.

175,000 oz taken — at triple-digit prices.

That’s not speculation.
That’s need.
2️⃣
Look at who is involved.
BOFA → issuing metal
Wells Fargo → taking delivery
Morgan Stanley, StoneX, ADM → also stopping

These aren’t Reddit traders.
These are system players moving real metal.

Big money isn’t watching charts.
Big money is securing supply.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 28
🧵 THREAD: China just pulled the emergency brake on silver leverage. Here’s why stackers should smile. 🪙🔥 Image
1/
China just announced a MAJOR margin hike on precious metals futures.

Starting Jan 29, 2026, margin on silver (Ag T+D) jumps from 44% → 60%.

That’s not a tweak.
That’s a warning shot.
2/
When exchanges raise margin this aggressively, it means only one thing:

👉 Volatility is coming
👉 Risk is rising
👉 Leverage is being punished

Paper traders are about to feel it.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 27
🧵What if the West tried to cap silver while China trades +$20/oz?Image
1/
What happens if the West keeps “spot” suppressed while China trades +$20/oz higher?

That spread isn’t a market condition. It’s a vacuum cleaner. 🧲🥈
2/
A $20/oz premium is a flashing sign to every producer, refiner, wholesaler:

“Sell physical here, not there.”
Metal flows to the highest bid. Always. 🌏➡️🇨🇳
Read 17 tweets
Jan 25
“Strategic Reserves Sound Great — Until You Ask: Where’s the Silver?” Image
1️⃣
The U.S. just proposed a $2.5B strategic reserve for critical minerals.
Sounds strong.
Looks decisive.

But every serious silver stacker should ask one simple question:
👉 Where will the silver come from?
2️⃣
This isn’t the year 2000.
We are in a structural physical shortage.

• inventories are thinning
• deliveries are tight
• recycling isn’t enough
• new mines don’t appear overnight

Paper promises don’t fill vaults.
Metal does.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 24
🧵 THREAD: Why Silver Is Not “Going Up”… It’s Being FORCED Up 🥈
1/
China’s banks will see ¥37.9 TRILLION in deposits mature in 2026.

That’s dormant capital looking for safety.
If just 5% moves into physical silver → 1,718 TONNES of demand.

Let that sink in.
2/
1,718 tonnes = ~7% of GLOBAL annual mine supply.
Not ETF flows.
Not paper contracts.
Not “sentiment”.

PHYSICAL. METAL.
The market doesn’t have it.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 19
🧵 THREAD: Japan just broke the bond illusion — and Silver knows it Image
1/
Japan’s bond market is quietly screaming.

3M → 0.70%
3Y → 1.38%
10Y → 2.27%
20Y → 3.26%
30Y → 3.61%

This is not “normalization.”
This is loss of control.
2/
Japan is the most indebted major economy on Earth (~260%debt-to-GDP).

Its system only works if yields stay artificially low.
They’re not.

When long-end yields rise like this, the math breaks — fast.
Read 12 tweets

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