The gold and silver crash wasn’t a coordinated plot by Wall Street or governments.
Kevin Warsh wasn’t the cause — just the match.
As Ray Dalio warned, capital wars are here — and we likely just witnessed one.
The sequence matters. I’ll walk through it 🧵
Kevin Warsh wasn’t the cause — just the match.
As Ray Dalio warned, capital wars are here — and we likely just witnessed one.
The sequence matters. I’ll walk through it 🧵
For decades, global finance ran on one quiet habit:
Japan lent money for free.
Borrow yen at ~0%.
Buy anything else.
Keep the spread.
Hedge funds, pensions, commodities — trillions leaned on this.
Japan was the rich grandmother who never asked for it back.
Japan lent money for free.
Borrow yen at ~0%.
Buy anything else.
Keep the spread.
Hedge funds, pensions, commodities — trillions leaned on this.
Japan was the rich grandmother who never asked for it back.
On Jan 20, that changed.
PM Sanae pushed for fiscal expansion to help the Japanese middle class & strengthen defence.
Long-term yields on the yen jumped.
Cheap yen stopped being cheap.
Suddenly savers could earn real returns & Japan's capital started returning home.
PM Sanae pushed for fiscal expansion to help the Japanese middle class & strengthen defence.
Long-term yields on the yen jumped.
Cheap yen stopped being cheap.
Suddenly savers could earn real returns & Japan's capital started returning home.
When funding tightens, money looks for safety.
That’s why gold and silver didn’t crash first —
they spiked, something that most conspiracists miss.
Gold up ~30%.
Silver up ~60%.
Not because things were great.
Because stress was building fast across institutions.
That’s why gold and silver didn’t crash first —
they spiked, something that most conspiracists miss.
Gold up ~30%.
Silver up ~60%.
Not because things were great.
Because stress was building fast across institutions.
Then came the moment that closed the door.
On Jan 30, Trump picked Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.
Markets didn’t hear a biography.
They heard: strong dollar, no quick rescue.
Now the yen was tightening and the dollar was firm.
That combo is brutal for leverage.
On Jan 30, Trump picked Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.
Markets didn’t hear a biography.
They heard: strong dollar, no quick rescue.
Now the yen was tightening and the dollar was firm.
That combo is brutal for leverage.
After that, nothing was colluded. It was automatic.
Higher funding costs. Margin calls triggered.
Gold and silver were liquid amidst the currency turmoil
+
Warsh signalled a collapse in the devauled dollar trade (gold/silver)
Both were sold rapidly (paper rather than spot)
Higher funding costs. Margin calls triggered.
Gold and silver were liquid amidst the currency turmoil
+
Warsh signalled a collapse in the devauled dollar trade (gold/silver)
Both were sold rapidly (paper rather than spot)
This looks like what Ray Dalio called "capital wars"
Japan pulling money home for security and tech.
The U.S. defending the dollar and industrial stability.
No conspiracy. Just national priorities in the real economy overruling speculators.
Full story: tanviratna.substack.com/p/gold-silver-…
Japan pulling money home for security and tech.
The U.S. defending the dollar and industrial stability.
No conspiracy. Just national priorities in the real economy overruling speculators.
Full story: tanviratna.substack.com/p/gold-silver-…
I’ve spent a decade working at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and technology.
If you found this insightful, follow me here on X & Substack for sharp, no-fluff breakdowns of the forces shaping our world.
If you found this insightful, follow me here on X & Substack for sharp, no-fluff breakdowns of the forces shaping our world.
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