The Abu Dhabi talks won't end the war—but they're far from pointless. Here's what they could actually achieve, and why Putin may be forced to soften his demands within months: 🧵[1/8]
Previous rounds of talks have led to some important, albeit limited results. First and foremost, I'm talking about prisoner exchanges - the UAE has mediated 17 of them in the past four years, allowing thousands of captured soldiers to return to their families
[2/8]
[2/8]
Secondly, such negotiations are important because they formalize the rules of engagement. Yes, these are often violated by Putin, but it is important that they be documented nevertheless, because this allows such breaches to be identified easily
[3/8]
[3/8]
Thirdly, even if peace remains out of reach for the time being, it may prove possible to force Putin to cease his terroristic approach to the war. I'm talking about bombing cities and civilian infrastructure - these are unconscionable acts and have to stop
[4/8]
[4/8]
How to achieve this? Not by offering Putin something - he sees compromise as weakness, as I have said - but through coercion. If the US were to offer long-range weapons to Ukraine, this may not radically change the course of the war, but it could cause real problems for Putin
[5/8]
[5/8]
If these things can be achieved during these latest talks, then we can call them successful. As for convincing Putin to end his aggression entirely, I see it as unlikely right now, but achievable in a few months' time
[6/8]
[6/8]
The ability of both sides to maintain the current intensity of warfare is quickly dwindling. We see how, for Russia in particular, the economic situation, the prospect of more mobilization and the shifting public mood are making things uncomfortable
[7/8]
[7/8]
This cannot continue indefinitely - at some stage, probably in the not too distant future, we will reach a point where Russia will be forced to soften its demands out of sheer necessity. At that stage, there will be a real chance of success at peace talks.
[8/8]
[8/8]
Putin’s playbook is no mystery if you know where he came from and how he thinks. Follow for more
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
