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Stephen Barlow Profile picture
@SteB777
Feb 5 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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"Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn"

@ProfSteveKeen has been pointing out the flaws in William Nordhaus fatally flawed DICE model for a very long time. They should now give that prize to Steve Keen.

1/🧵theguardian.com/environment/20…
I have been pointing out that the climate crisis will crash the global economy, for over 3 decades. However, I lacked @ProfSteveKeen economics expertise, to explain why, in economic terms. My analysis was derived from ecology and systems theory.
2/
It was only when I read @ProfSteveKeen systematic demolition of William Nordhaus' intellectually dishonest DICE model, that I realized why governments had been. misled to believe the impacts of climate change on our system, would be slight.
3/
I was horrified at the ecologically naive reasoning, Nordhaus had used to come to his conclusions. Nothing more clearly exposed why economists need educating on the basics of science, ecology and environmental science.
4/
Are Professor Richard Tol, and Bjorn Lomborg, now going to admit they were totally wrong, and have been misleading the world?

I mean everything they claimed, was totally mistaken.

5/profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p289812-richar…
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More from @SteB777

Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Feb 7
The reason I am getting very frustrated about this, is that this is the single biggest danger facing humanity. That there is a complete failure to understand how no one has ever investigated how biodiversity and natural ecosystems, sustain our society.
1/🧵
Everyone, including most senior scientists, just seem to assume:

1) That science, and experts understand how natural systems sustain our societies/civilization.

2) How stable and resilient our societies/civilization, will be to the collapse of these natural systems.

2/
This is because of an entirely false assumption, in modern Western culture, that our societies/civilization, somehow exist, independent of natural systems (biodiversity, ecosystems, the climate).
3/
Read 21 tweets
Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Feb 6
Hi Caroline, I agree, if the report has been redacted, the full version should be made available. However, as I have been trying to explain to @GreenRupertRead the thinness of the report, is not really due to redaction, and anyone with insight, should know that this is as serious as it gets.

However, the real problem, is that there is absolutely no field of expertise here, no field of science, no institute studying this, no experts, that could tell you what this actually means for our societies/civilization.

I'm a graduate in scientific ecology, I have spent over 30 years investigating this, and trying to alert people to the fact, that there is no field of science, no institute, and no experts, who know what this actually means for our societies, because absolutely no one is studying.

Everyone, including scientists, wrongly assumes there are experts and research on this, but there are none. I have challenged leading scientists, to point to who is doing the research, and where, and none can tell me.

I am being so totally ignored on this, that I feel like giving up, and I have vastly more education and insight into this, than those ignoring me, and stonewalling me.

I will put a peer reviewed paper, in the tweet below, that absolutely proves, that absolutely no one is studying the threat to our civilization, which the climate and ecological crisis poses. Talk about denial. Well, just wait until you start starving to death, and remember I did warn you about it.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/2018757…
1/2
This should be the biggest story in the world today. If anyone states billions could starve to death, in the not so distant future, a lot of techno-optimist climate scientists will come along, and falsely accuse you of being alarmist, because there is no scientific evidence, that says climate change, poses this sort of risk to our societies.

Actually, they are right that there is no scientific evidence, the climate change could collapse our civilization. But that's because:

1) There's no research at all into the resilience of our societies/civilization, to climate/ecological shocks. So of course there's no science to support these concerns.

2) Secondly, the threat to us is from a combination of biodiversity and ecological collapse (which climate scientists are not qualified to comment on) and climate change. No one is researching the combined impact of both. There is no field of science that studies this.

Scientific ecology, only studies the interaction of populations of non-human organisms, with the natural environment, including climate change. It deliberately excludes humans, and human society. I know, because I'm a graduate in it.

The main reason this is not studied, is the complexity, which is many more magnitudes greater than anything else humanity studied. But just because it is complex, doesn't mean we should be ignoring it, as our lives depend on it, and there could be mass starvation in the near future, if we do not get real.
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
2/2
PS. - For crying out loud, will someone please respond to this, and stop ignoring what I am saying, just because it is too complex for you to understand. I don't mind people disagreeing with me, calling me an alarmist, if only they will support why they are saying this, with references and evidence. Stop the denial. We can avert catastrophe, if only we investigate this and acknowledge the problem.

I am not a doomer. I am saying we can avert catastrophe, if only we first investigate the situation, and it will be discovered that what I am saying is true. Secondly, upon this realization, we not only totally change our system, but abandon artificially induced competitive, induced for economic growth, and switch to a cooperative system, which would avoid total system collapse, as people would work together, not against each other.

I will not let anyone pretend that they are really concerned about the ecological and climate crisis, until they acknowledge this situation. Otherwise, you are just trying to look good.

As I say, if people dispute what I say, and try to claim I am wrong and don't know what I am talking about, support your point. But every time someone has tried in well over 30 years, I totally destroy their arguments, and they have to concede, that what I am saying is correct. But then they just go quiet, and don't want to discuss it.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Feb 3
I'm making a very serious point here. The way natural ecosystems and biodiversity, support our societies and economies, has never been systematically studied, despite us destroying the natural systems our lives depend on, and no one is the slightest bit interested in that?
1/3
Very few people, almost no one, is aware of what I'm saying here. Most people, including most scientists, wrongly assume somewhere it's known, how natural ecosystems and biodiversity sustain us. That there is expertise in this. But where is it? The cat got your tongue?
2/3
In my lifetime of investigating this, the only people I've come across who truly understand the total unsustainability of our modern systems, and how natural ecosystems and biodiversity sustain us, are indigenous cultures. Our culture seems free of this insight.
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Jan 31
I wrote a thread on the ecological impacts to our societies, explaining climate change was just one small, but very significant part of those ecological impacts. Remember, in 2024, UK farming suffered big losses in yield, because of rain.

1/🧵theguardian.com/news/ng-intera…
This was the thread I wrote, and without a huge amount of words, I can only partially explain what I was getting at. That we need to urgently develop a holistic, joined up way of thinking, who understand all these serious challenges we face as a whole.

2/
There are 2 very different ways of looking at the increased flooding we are experiencing in the UK, and other parts of the world. The first is to look at it as a singular problem, in terms of specifics of flood engineering. This is relevant, but only part of it.
3/
Read 18 tweets
Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Jan 30
This is reality, within the near future, I mean the next few years/decades, we are going to get hit, by cascading ecological impacts, and climate change is just one part of this.

Whether we act on this, is up to us, but if we ignore it, we face catastrophic consequences.
1/🧵
I have been warning about the ecological impacts, this report, essentially by the UK intelligence services, warns of, for decades. I suppose I better dig out some links to prove it. But what I said doesn't matter.

2/gov.uk/government/pub…
What matters, is that it is going to happen, it already is happening, and there is massive evidence for global ecosystem collapse. Everything, our civilization, our lives, our economies, totally relies on ecosystems, which are collapsing.
3/
Read 20 tweets
Stephen Barlow Profile picture
Jan 26
A big thanks to Rupert Read for sharing this. This is the latest in a long line of reports, highlighting the the unsustainability of our present system, and that serious problems lie ahead. Last week, we had the Nature Security Assessment on biodiversity.
1/🧵
There is nothing particularly new about this, there is a long line of similar such assessments, by all manner of institutions, from military, government, corporate, financial institutions going back decades.

All are essentially ignored by governments, our politicians.
2/
Here's the outline of assessment by UK Intelligence services, on the threats from biodiversity collapse, ecosystem collapse. Apparently it is redacted.

I'll put a link to the government website below.

3/theguardian.com/environment/20…
Read 12 tweets

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