Honza Černý Profile picture
Feb 5 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 SILVER REALITY CHECKImage
1️⃣
Paper smackdowns are loud.
Physical demand is quiet.

But guess which one decides the endgame.

February COMEX silver just printed massive early deliveries.

That’s not noise. That’s intent.
2️⃣
As of early February:

➡️ 3,500+ delivery notices
➡️ ~18 million ounces of silver tied to delivery
➡️ Over 550 tonnes moving through the delivery mechanism

February is not a major delivery month.
Yet here we are.
3️⃣
When deliveries surge early in a non-major month, it usually means one thing:

👉 Someone wants metal NOW.
Not March.
Not “rolled paper”.

NOW !
4️⃣
And here’s the part paper traders hate:

Paper price can be smashed.
Algorithms can dump contracts.
Headlines can scream “sell-off”.

But delivery notices don’t lie.
They show real stress where it matters.
5️⃣
This is how repricing starts — not with fireworks, but with logistics.

First:

• rising delivery demand
• tightening availability
• longer lead times
• vanishing dealer inventory

Only later:

• higher prices
6️⃣
Stackers always live in Phase 1.
Paper traders only react in Phase 3.

That’s the edge.
7️⃣
If you’re shaken by a paper smackdown, remember:
Price is what prints.
Availability is what counts.

When metal refuses to sell, paper becomes irrelevant.
8️⃣
This isn’t about calling tops or bottoms.
It’s about understanding the cycle.

Paper can lag reality.
Physical leads.

Always has.
9️⃣
Every smash is just one more chance to exchange paper promises
for something that actually settles.

No counterparty risk.
No margin calls.
No forced liquidation.

Just metal.
🔟
Stay patient.
Stay liquid in ounces.
Ignore the noise.

The silver market doesn’t break all at once.

It tightens…
then snaps.

#SilverStackers #PhysicalSilver #COMEX #SoundMoney
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More from @honzacern1

Feb 6
🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.
1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.

Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.

That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 4
🧵 THREAD: The winners are already decidedImage
1/
The U.S. is hosting 50+ countries to talk about loosening China’s grip on critical minerals.

Translation:
👉 the system already lost control.
When governments meet about supply chains, the shortage is real.
2/
China doesn’t just mine minerals.

China controls processing, refining, and delivery timing.

That’s the choke point.

And no amount of speeches can rebuild that overnight.

Years, not months.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1
🧵 THREAD: This drop was not “price discovery.”
It was a test of your resolve and intellect.

What we just witnessed in silver was not a market accident.

It was a message.
And it was meant for March delivery holders. 👇Image
1⃣

📉 They smashed the paper price. Hard.
Right before delivery pressure builds.

Classic move.

The goal was simple:

👉 scare longs
👉 force rollovers
👉 delay physical stress

Not to “find a fair price.”
To buy time.Image
2⃣

📊 But here’s the part they didn’t like:

After a violent paper dump, March Open Interest dropped only ~6,100 contracts.

That’s it.

No mass capitulation.
No panic exodus.
No collapse.

Just… resistance.Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 31
🧵 THREAD: The Jieworui Lesson — Why Physical Metal MattersImage
Image
1/
China just gave the world a masterclass in what paper gold really means.

The collapse of Jieworui wasn’t a “scam gone wrong”.
It was a structure failing under stress.

And that matters.
2/
Jieworui marketed itself as gold exposure.

What users actually owned was:

• locked prices
• leveraged positions
• delayed delivery promises
• platform credit

Not metal.
Not possession.
Not control.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 30
🧵 THREAD: Critical Minerals, Fake Dips & Why Stackers Aren’t Impressed 🧵Image
1/
Czech FM Petr Macinka is heading to Washington for a Critical Minerals Ministerial on Feb 4.

Supply chains. Security. Strategic metals.

Translation: “We have a problem getting real stuff.”
2/
The conference is hosted by the United States Department of State.

Not Reddit. Not Twitter.

Governments don’t organize ministerial summits over minerals that are “abundant and cheap.”
Read 12 tweets
Jan 30
🧵 SILVER REALITY CHECK FOR STACKERS 🥈

finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-sh…
1/
Silver futures > $117 (yesterday)
+275% YoY.

But price isn’t the story.
Coverage is.

COMEX registered inventory covers just ~14% of outstanding futures.

That’s not a market.
That’s leverage with a thin physical floor.
2/
Registered silver: ~108M oz
Open interest: ~760M oz

If only a fraction stands for delivery,
the system feels stress immediately.

Eligible ≠ deliverable.
Paper ≠ metal.
Read 10 tweets

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