Honza Černý Profile picture
Feb 7 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 THREAD:

This Executive Order isn’t about weapons.

It’s about physical scarcity. 🪙Image
1/

The America First Arms Transfer Strategy isn’t a foreign-policy memo.

It’s an industrial command.

The key phrase isn’t “arms.”
It’s production capacity.

And capacity runs on physical inputs, not paper.
2/
The order explicitly says the U.S. will use foreign money to expand domestic production.

That means:

– new factories
– new lines
– new inventories

You can’t finance that with ETFs.
You need metal.
3/
Another key word: reindustrialization.

Reindustrialization means:

❌ no just-in-time
❌ no empty shelves
✅ stockpiles
✅ redundancy
✅ physical availability

That’s the opposite of COMEX logic.
4/
The order repeatedly stresses supply-chain resilience and priority components.

Translation:
Some inputs will be treated as non-optional.

If you’re short physical metal into that demand,
price stops matter less than availability.
5/
Defense manufacturing is price-insensitive demand.

When the buyer is the state:

– there is no “wait for the dip”
– there is no substitution
– production does not stop

This is the worst environment imaginable for paper shorts.
6/
Notice what’s missing from the strategy.

There is no talk of:

– futures markets
– hedging efficiency
– price discovery

Because none of that matters when delivery is strategic.

Only who has the metal matters.
7/
This isn’t about war tomorrow.
It’s about preparing for a long rivalry,
where material security beats financial engineering.

That’s why this order targets:

– capacity
– resilience
– physical supply
8/
Paper silver works…
until it doesn’t.

Industrial policy doesn’t settle in cash.
It settles in components.

And components don’t come from screens.
9/
If you’re holding physical silver,
you’re not speculating on price.

You’re positioning for availability.

And in this environment, availability is power.
10/
This is why:

– margins rise
– delivery stress grows
– paper volatility increases

The system senses what’s coming.
You can margin paper.

You can’t margin-call scarcity.
🪙🔥

#Silver
#PhysicalOverPaper
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More from @honzacern1

Feb 8
1/9

🚨 STACKERS, WAKE UP.

This is the moment we’ve been watching for years.
The silver paper house of cards is starting to crack.
February 2026 set the stage — March could be HISTORIC.Image
2/9

📦 February 2026 deliveries: INSANE.
In just the first few days:

➡️ ~19 MILLION ounces taken physically.

That’s nearly ALL of last February’s deliveries — in under a week.

Even more telling: ~98% of open interest stood for delivery.

Buyers don’t want paper. They want REAL METAL.
3/9

📊 Now look at March 2026:

• Open Interest: ~80,500 contracts
• That’s OVER 400 MILLION ounces demanded
• COMEX registered (deliverable) silver: ~103 MILLION ounces

Do the math.
If even 25–30% stands for delivery like we’re seeing now…

👉 THERE ISN’T ENOUGH SILVER.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 7
PHYSICAL SILVER CRISIS — WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING 🧵Image
1️⃣

Physical silver is breaking away from paper markets.
Since early 2026, demand exploded while supply chains simply can’t keep up.
2️⃣

Major European wholesalers and dealers admit they’re overwhelmed.

Daily orders often exceed what they can process — even at higher prices.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 6
🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.
1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.

Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.

That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 5
🧵 SILVER REALITY CHECKImage
1️⃣
Paper smackdowns are loud.
Physical demand is quiet.

But guess which one decides the endgame.

February COMEX silver just printed massive early deliveries.

That’s not noise. That’s intent.
2️⃣
As of early February:

➡️ 3,500+ delivery notices
➡️ ~18 million ounces of silver tied to delivery
➡️ Over 550 tonnes moving through the delivery mechanism

February is not a major delivery month.
Yet here we are.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 4
🧵 THREAD: The winners are already decidedImage
1/
The U.S. is hosting 50+ countries to talk about loosening China’s grip on critical minerals.

Translation:
👉 the system already lost control.
When governments meet about supply chains, the shortage is real.
2/
China doesn’t just mine minerals.

China controls processing, refining, and delivery timing.

That’s the choke point.

And no amount of speeches can rebuild that overnight.

Years, not months.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1
🧵 THREAD: This drop was not “price discovery.”
It was a test of your resolve and intellect.

What we just witnessed in silver was not a market accident.

It was a message.
And it was meant for March delivery holders. 👇Image
1⃣

📉 They smashed the paper price. Hard.
Right before delivery pressure builds.

Classic move.

The goal was simple:

👉 scare longs
👉 force rollovers
👉 delay physical stress

Not to “find a fair price.”
To buy time.Image
2⃣

📊 But here’s the part they didn’t like:

After a violent paper dump, March Open Interest dropped only ~6,100 contracts.

That’s it.

No mass capitulation.
No panic exodus.
No collapse.

Just… resistance.Image
Read 12 tweets

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