Honza Černý Profile picture
Feb 9 14 tweets 2 min read Read on X
CHINA CURBS U.S. TREASURIES — AND THE SILVER SIGNAL NOBODY WANTS TO SEE 🧵Image
1/
China is quietly telling its banks to limit exposure to U.S. Treasuries.

Official reason? “Concentration risk & volatility.”
Real reason? They don’t trust the exit.
2/
Treasuries are no longer “risk-free.”
They’re policy tools, weaponized by deficits, geopolitics, and refinancing stress.

China sees what’s coming — too much debt, too little real demand.
3/
Here’s the key part everyone skips:

When large holders reduce sovereign bonds, they don’t move into cash.

They move into real assets or strategic materials.
4/
Gold gets the headlines.
But silver is where the system breaks.

Because silver isn’t just money —it’s energy, electronics, defense, solar, AI, and grids.
5/
China already dominates silver refining and industrial demand.

Reducing Treasury exposure while controlling silver flows is not diversification.

It’s positioning.
6/
Now connect the dots:

• China limits U.S. debt exposure
• Physical silver availability tightens globally
• Paper silver price stays “stable”

That’s not balance.
That’s decoupling in progress.
7/
Paper markets price silver as a financial asset.
China treats silver as a strategic input.
Those two views cannot coexist forever.
8/
When Treasuries lose credibility, collateral chains snap.

When collateral snaps, derivatives scramble.
And silver sits right in the middle of that plumbing.
9/
This is why physical silver keeps disappearing —
even while the paper price pretends nothing is happening.

Same movie.
Different asset.
10/
China isn’t “dumping America.”
It’s hedging against a disorderly reset.

And silver?
Silver is the asset that doesn’t need permission to reprice.
11/
Treasuries can be rolled.
Currencies can be printed.
Narratives can be managed.
Physical silver can’t.
12/
This isn’t about China vs the U.S.
It’s about what survives when trust evaporates.

And Beijing just told you:
Trust is thinning.

#Silver #PhysicalSilver #Macro
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More from @honzacern1

Feb 8
1/9

🚨 STACKERS, WAKE UP.

This is the moment we’ve been watching for years.
The silver paper house of cards is starting to crack.
February 2026 set the stage — March could be HISTORIC.Image
2/9

📦 February 2026 deliveries: INSANE.
In just the first few days:

➡️ ~19 MILLION ounces taken physically.

That’s nearly ALL of last February’s deliveries — in under a week.

Even more telling: ~98% of open interest stood for delivery.

Buyers don’t want paper. They want REAL METAL.
3/9

📊 Now look at March 2026:

• Open Interest: ~80,500 contracts
• That’s OVER 400 MILLION ounces demanded
• COMEX registered (deliverable) silver: ~103 MILLION ounces

Do the math.
If even 25–30% stands for delivery like we’re seeing now…

👉 THERE ISN’T ENOUGH SILVER.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 7
🧵 THREAD:

This Executive Order isn’t about weapons.

It’s about physical scarcity. 🪙Image
1/

The America First Arms Transfer Strategy isn’t a foreign-policy memo.

It’s an industrial command.

The key phrase isn’t “arms.”
It’s production capacity.

And capacity runs on physical inputs, not paper.
2/
The order explicitly says the U.S. will use foreign money to expand domestic production.

That means:

– new factories
– new lines
– new inventories

You can’t finance that with ETFs.
You need metal.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 7
PHYSICAL SILVER CRISIS — WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING 🧵Image
1️⃣

Physical silver is breaking away from paper markets.
Since early 2026, demand exploded while supply chains simply can’t keep up.
2️⃣

Major European wholesalers and dealers admit they’re overwhelmed.

Daily orders often exceed what they can process — even at higher prices.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 6
🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.
1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.

Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.

That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 5
🧵 SILVER REALITY CHECKImage
1️⃣
Paper smackdowns are loud.
Physical demand is quiet.

But guess which one decides the endgame.

February COMEX silver just printed massive early deliveries.

That’s not noise. That’s intent.
2️⃣
As of early February:

➡️ 3,500+ delivery notices
➡️ ~18 million ounces of silver tied to delivery
➡️ Over 550 tonnes moving through the delivery mechanism

February is not a major delivery month.
Yet here we are.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 4
🧵 THREAD: The winners are already decidedImage
1/
The U.S. is hosting 50+ countries to talk about loosening China’s grip on critical minerals.

Translation:
👉 the system already lost control.
When governments meet about supply chains, the shortage is real.
2/
China doesn’t just mine minerals.

China controls processing, refining, and delivery timing.

That’s the choke point.

And no amount of speeches can rebuild that overnight.

Years, not months.
Read 10 tweets

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