Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Feb 11 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
FT: Ukraine plans to announce elections on February 24 after the US told Kyiv to hold them by May 15 — or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.

At the same time, the Zelenskyy Office says elections are impossible without proper security conditions. 1/ Image
According to the FT, Kyiv is considering holding presidential elections alongside a national referendum on any peace deal with Russia.

Ukrainian and Western officials familiar with the discussions confirm active planning. 2/
The May 15 deadline comes amid White House pressure to finalize a peace framework by June.

Zelenskyy said on February 9 that Washington wants a “clear schedule” and aims to close the war before US midterm campaigning intensifies in November. 3/
February 24 marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Officials say Zelenskyy may use that date to formally present the election-and-referendum plan. 4/
The legal barrier is martial law. Ukrainian law prohibits national elections during wartime. Around 20% of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation.

Hundreds of thousands of troops are deployed at the front. Millions of citizens are displaced. 5/
Under the working timeline, parliament would amend legislation in March–April to enable wartime voting. Without a ceasefire, polling stations would remain exposed to drone and missile attacks. 6/
Olha Aivazovska, head of OPORA: “Six months of preparation is not the maximum — it is the minimum.”

She warns that rushing the vote risks damaging legitimacy and future democratic integrity. 7/
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko: “Political competition during war is bad. We can destroy the country from inside. That is Russia’s goal.” 8/
Western officials say at least half of the pre-war registered electorate must participate for the result to be internationally recognized. Lower turnout would give Moscow grounds to question legitimacy. 9/
US officials signal that security guarantees are linked to a broader peace deal, potentially involving territorial concessions in Donbas.

Zelenskyy has publicly rejected ceding territory, stating Ukraine will “stand where we stand.” 10X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 12
The IOC disqualified Ukrainian skeleton racer Vladyslav Heraskevych from the Winter Games minutes before his race.

Vladyslav Heraskevych's "helmet of remembrance" honors the two dozen Ukrainian athletes killed since Russia's invasion, Reuters. 1/ Image
The IOC ruled it violated Rule 50.2, which bans political messaging on the field of play.

Heraskevych: “They were killed, but their voice is so loud that the IOC is afraid of them.” 2/
IOC President Kirsty Coventry met him at the start gate and proposed compromises: a black armband or showing the helmet before and after racing.

They didn’t reach agreement. Heraskevych was stripped of accreditation and removed from the venue. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12
Russian opposition figure Kara-Murza in WP: Russians have returned to PACE to shape what Russia must look like after Putin and to draft a roadmap for democratic transition

The Council of Europe admitted 15 anti-war Russian opposition figures, four years after expelling Russia.1/ Image
The delegates replace former Kremlin MPs like Pyotr Tolstoy and ex-ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Petra Bayr, President of the Assembly, opened the session by stating: “Russia is not only a regime.” 2/
Russia joined the Council of Europe in 1996. Membership gave Russian citizens access to the European Court of Human Rights.

Over the years, the court issued thousands of rulings in favor of Russians challenging unlawful state actions. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 12
Europe must build its own army to counter Putin. The continent has 450 million people — yet it cannot defend itself without the U.S., writes Max Bergmann in FA.

Raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP will not replace American ground power in Europe. 1/ Image
In its 2025 National Security Strategy, the Trump administration signaled that the U.S. no longer sees itself as Europe’s long-term security guarantor.

Washington reduced support for Ukraine, imposed tariffs on allies, and questioned NATO’s future role. 2/
Europe’s problem is structural. The continent has around 30 separate militaries, built to operate as auxiliaries under U.S. command. Without American logistics, intelligence, airlift, and command systems, NATO becomes hollow. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Feb 11
$1.1B flowed from the state budget into the pockets of ministers, police generals and judges. Now Russia claws it back.

Over 5–7 years, authorities seized 100B rubles in corruption cases.

In total, the state grabbed 4T rubles ($44B) in assets. It sold only 8%. ––Moscow Times.1/ Image
Example: billionaire Konstantin Strukov.

The state seized his gold company Yuzhuralzoloto. He had funded United Russia for years. Now he sits in pretrial detention. 2/
Mid-level officials fell too. Former Ural road chief Alexei Borisov owned: 19 land plots, 15 houses, 26 apartments, 40 commercial spaces. Authorities moved to confiscate them. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 11
Former CIA Director Petraeus: Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones this year, compared to roughly 300,000 in the US. It’s at the forefront of modern warfare.

If you want to see the future of war, come to Ukraine — on both sides, innovation is moving fast.

1/
Petraeus: Ukraine’s innovation is extraordinary. I’ve never seen anything like it. The speed at which new drone capabilities are deployed is remarkable.

It has helped offset Russia’s advantages — five times more manpower and an economy 10–15 times larger.

2/
Petraeus: In Ukraine, those who design, build, and use drones are the same people, working fast.

The US system is far more cumbersome. Ukraine is creating tomorrow’s tech for today’s war. We need to transform much of our force.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 11
Former CIA Director Petraeus: I said from the start Russia would not take Kyiv. Others predicted it would fall in 3–5 days. Kyiv is a vast city with brave defenders.

It would be extremely hard to break in — and Ukraine’s actions denied Russia the airfield north of the capital.1/
Petraeus: The Budapest Memorandum was a major failure.

Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK and those guarantees weren’t upheld. This is Ukraine’s war for independence — a fight for its very survival.

2/
Petraeus: US sanctions are under Senate review.

If paired with the EU’s 19th package and continued military support, the pressure could be strong enough to push Putin toward a ceasefire by the end of the year.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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