FT: Ukraine plans to announce elections on February 24 after the US told Kyiv to hold them by May 15 — or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.
At the same time, the Zelenskyy Office says elections are impossible without proper security conditions. 1/
According to the FT, Kyiv is considering holding presidential elections alongside a national referendum on any peace deal with Russia.
Ukrainian and Western officials familiar with the discussions confirm active planning. 2/
The May 15 deadline comes amid White House pressure to finalize a peace framework by June.
Zelenskyy said on February 9 that Washington wants a “clear schedule” and aims to close the war before US midterm campaigning intensifies in November. 3/
February 24 marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Officials say Zelenskyy may use that date to formally present the election-and-referendum plan. 4/
The legal barrier is martial law. Ukrainian law prohibits national elections during wartime. Around 20% of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation.
Hundreds of thousands of troops are deployed at the front. Millions of citizens are displaced. 5/
Under the working timeline, parliament would amend legislation in March–April to enable wartime voting. Without a ceasefire, polling stations would remain exposed to drone and missile attacks. 6/
Olha Aivazovska, head of OPORA: “Six months of preparation is not the maximum — it is the minimum.”
She warns that rushing the vote risks damaging legitimacy and future democratic integrity. 7/
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko: “Political competition during war is bad. We can destroy the country from inside. That is Russia’s goal.” 8/
Western officials say at least half of the pre-war registered electorate must participate for the result to be internationally recognized. Lower turnout would give Moscow grounds to question legitimacy. 9/
US officials signal that security guarantees are linked to a broader peace deal, potentially involving territorial concessions in Donbas.
Zelenskyy has publicly rejected ceding territory, stating Ukraine will “stand where we stand.” 10X
Former CIA Director Petraeus: I said from the start Russia would not take Kyiv. Others predicted it would fall in 3–5 days. Kyiv is a vast city with brave defenders.
It would be extremely hard to break in — and Ukraine’s actions denied Russia the airfield north of the capital.1/
Petraeus: The Budapest Memorandum was a major failure.
Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK and those guarantees weren’t upheld. This is Ukraine’s war for independence — a fight for its very survival.
2/
Petraeus: US sanctions are under Senate review.
If paired with the EU’s 19th package and continued military support, the pressure could be strong enough to push Putin toward a ceasefire by the end of the year.
Angela Stent, Former National Intel Officer: Every time Witkoff claims progress on Ukraine, the next day Putin or Lavrov restate the same demands — withdrawal from Donbas and “denazification”.
They also cite an “Anchorage formula” no US official confirms. It’s obfuscation. 1/
Stent: Russia's negotiations are entirely performative.
They follow Soviet and post-Soviet tactics: negotiate to create a process and wear people down. Putin wants to humor Trump to avoid more punitive actions from the US administration. 2X
Former Amb. to Ukraine, William Taylor: Putin can't break Ukraine’s will. He’s tried for 4 years.
They don’t show signs of breaking. Soldiers, civilians, people in and out of government know that if they lose, there’s no Ukraine. They have to win and stop the Russians. 1/
Taylor: We want to see Ukrainians stop the Russians. Europeans want the same because Russia is a clear threat to them.
They’re stepping up with a $100B loan and continued funds. If big neighbors invade little ones and prevail, that’s not the world we want to live in. 2/
Taylor: Zelenskyy says Europeans have to step up more and prepare for a time when Americans are not there. He’s probably right.
Trump may not change. Europeans need to build up, provide weapons, and strengthen the defense industrial base. 3X
Macron: Russian energy stopped in 2022. There is no way back.
China as a supermarket for our export is over, and during the past 2 years we were overwhelmed by the Chinese export.
The US is imposing tariffs on us and a series of economic coercion mechanisms. 1/
Macron: End of Russia as a permanent provider of local energy. End of China as a main export market. The US is imposing tariffs on our economy and a coercion mechanism.
This is a game changer. This is not just a transition. None of these factors will change in the short run. 2/
Macron: China is an authoritarian regime, no offense, this is a collective choice. The US is becoming an unpredictable economy and governance.
In the middle of that — the EU. It remains a place where the rule of law and predictability remain valid. 3X