Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Feb 11 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
FT: Ukraine plans to announce elections on February 24 after the US told Kyiv to hold them by May 15 — or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.

At the same time, the Zelenskyy Office says elections are impossible without proper security conditions. 1/ Image
According to the FT, Kyiv is considering holding presidential elections alongside a national referendum on any peace deal with Russia.

Ukrainian and Western officials familiar with the discussions confirm active planning. 2/
The May 15 deadline comes amid White House pressure to finalize a peace framework by June.

Zelenskyy said on February 9 that Washington wants a “clear schedule” and aims to close the war before US midterm campaigning intensifies in November. 3/
February 24 marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Officials say Zelenskyy may use that date to formally present the election-and-referendum plan. 4/
The legal barrier is martial law. Ukrainian law prohibits national elections during wartime. Around 20% of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation.

Hundreds of thousands of troops are deployed at the front. Millions of citizens are displaced. 5/
Under the working timeline, parliament would amend legislation in March–April to enable wartime voting. Without a ceasefire, polling stations would remain exposed to drone and missile attacks. 6/
Olha Aivazovska, head of OPORA: “Six months of preparation is not the maximum — it is the minimum.”

She warns that rushing the vote risks damaging legitimacy and future democratic integrity. 7/
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko: “Political competition during war is bad. We can destroy the country from inside. That is Russia’s goal.” 8/
Western officials say at least half of the pre-war registered electorate must participate for the result to be internationally recognized. Lower turnout would give Moscow grounds to question legitimacy. 9/
US officials signal that security guarantees are linked to a broader peace deal, potentially involving territorial concessions in Donbas.

Zelenskyy has publicly rejected ceding territory, stating Ukraine will “stand where we stand.” 10X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 11
$1.1B flowed from the state budget into the pockets of ministers, police generals and judges. Now Russia claws it back.

Over 5–7 years, authorities seized 100B rubles in corruption cases.

In total, the state grabbed 4T rubles ($44B) in assets. It sold only 8%. ––Moscow Times.1/ Image
Example: billionaire Konstantin Strukov.

The state seized his gold company Yuzhuralzoloto. He had funded United Russia for years. Now he sits in pretrial detention. 2/
Mid-level officials fell too. Former Ural road chief Alexei Borisov owned: 19 land plots, 15 houses, 26 apartments, 40 commercial spaces. Authorities moved to confiscate them. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 11
Former CIA Director Petraeus: I said from the start Russia would not take Kyiv. Others predicted it would fall in 3–5 days. Kyiv is a vast city with brave defenders.

It would be extremely hard to break in — and Ukraine’s actions denied Russia the airfield north of the capital.1/
Petraeus: The Budapest Memorandum was a major failure.

Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK and those guarantees weren’t upheld. This is Ukraine’s war for independence — a fight for its very survival.

2/
Petraeus: US sanctions are under Senate review.

If paired with the EU’s 19th package and continued military support, the pressure could be strong enough to push Putin toward a ceasefire by the end of the year.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
Former CIA Director Petraeus: When about 20 drones violated Polish airspace, Warsaw didn’t call Brussels or Washington, it called Kyiv.

Ukraine is the most advanced in building a “drone wall,” showing how to defend vast front lines.

1/
Petraeus: I don’t think Russia will move against a NATO country until it achieves its aims in Ukraine — and likely takes Moldova next.

Russian troops remain in Transnistria. After that, a Baltic state, possibly Lithuania, could be targeted.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
Angela Stent, Former National Intel Officer: Every time Witkoff claims progress on Ukraine, the next day Putin or Lavrov restate the same demands — withdrawal from Donbas and “denazification”.

They also cite an “Anchorage formula” no US official confirms. It’s obfuscation. 1/
Stent: Russia's negotiations are entirely performative.

They follow Soviet and post-Soviet tactics: negotiate to create a process and wear people down. Putin wants to humor Trump to avoid more punitive actions from the US administration. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
Former Amb. to Ukraine, William Taylor: Putin can't break Ukraine’s will. He’s tried for 4 years.

They don’t show signs of breaking. Soldiers, civilians, people in and out of government know that if they lose, there’s no Ukraine. They have to win and stop the Russians. 1/
Taylor: We want to see Ukrainians stop the Russians. Europeans want the same because Russia is a clear threat to them.

They’re stepping up with a $100B loan and continued funds. If big neighbors invade little ones and prevail, that’s not the world we want to live in. 2/
Taylor: Zelenskyy says Europeans have to step up more and prepare for a time when Americans are not there. He’s probably right.

Trump may not change. Europeans need to build up, provide weapons, and strengthen the defense industrial base. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 11
Macron: Russian energy stopped in 2022. There is no way back.

China as a supermarket for our export is over, and during the past 2 years we were overwhelmed by the Chinese export.

The US is imposing tariffs on us and a series of economic coercion mechanisms. 1/
Macron: End of Russia as a permanent provider of local energy. End of China as a main export market. The US is imposing tariffs on our economy and a coercion mechanism.

This is a game changer. This is not just a transition. None of these factors will change in the short run. 2/
Macron: China is an authoritarian regime, no offense, this is a collective choice. The US is becoming an unpredictable economy and governance.

In the middle of that — the EU. It remains a place where the rule of law and predictability remain valid. 3X

Read 4 tweets

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