Thread by @Mylovanov

$129 million a month. That is what Russia’s steel lobby wants to remove from the budget in tax relief.

Bloomberg: Moscow faces mounting corporate rescue demands as wartime spending strains state finances. 1/

A steel industry group asks to scrap the raw steel excise and iron ore extraction tax. The move would cost about $129M per month. Profits at top steelmakers have fallen, though they remain globally profitable with low debt. 2/

The Transport Ministry seeks 65 billion rubles for Russian Railways. The state monopoly had requested 200 billion rubles in emergency aid in late 2025 to sustain operations and investment under rising costs and heavy debt. 3/

Samolet Group, Russia’s largest property developer, asks for 50 billion rubles in state support. It is building 300 projects totaling 4.72 million square meters and argues aid would prevent housing price hikes. 4/

The budget is already under pressure. Oil prices weaken. Discounts on Russian crude widen. A strong ruble cuts export revenues.

Officials scramble to raise 1.2 trillion rubles to stabilize a key fiscal metric. 5/

The sovereign wealth fund’s liquid reserves approach what officials consider a critical floor for financial stability. To finance the deficit, Moscow turns to expensive domestic debt issuance. 6/

In 2025, the economy cooled for the first time since the full-scale invasion. The central bank raised rates to a record 21% to curb inflation, then lowered them only to 16%. High rates choke borrowing and squeeze corporate margins. 7/

In 2008 and after Crimea in 2014, Russia used accumulated reserves to stabilize the system. In 2026, those buffers shrink while war spending continues.

The state now faces a hard choice: finance the war at scale or stabilize the civilian economy. 8X

Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…