1/ In January 2026, Ukraine reported killing 34,000 Russian soldiers – on average 1,096 a day, or 7,846 per week. Thousands of Ukrainians have likely died in the same period. Last month in Ukraine was much bloodier than the average monthly death toll at Auschwitz. ⬇️
2/ The extraordinary lethality of the Ukraine war stands out in comparison to recent wars and mass killings:
🔺 At least 7,000 people are reported to have been killed in the recent Iranian uprising. More have died in Ukraine in each week of last month.
3/🔺 At least 84,000 people died in the Gaza war between 7 October 2023 and 10 October 2025 – an average of 3,500 per week. The number of weekly fatalities in the Ukraine war last month alone was more than twice Gaza's monthly average.
4/ 🔺 8,372 Bosnian Muslims were killed at Srebrenica in July 1995 – at the time, the worst European massacre since the Holocaust. Ukraine has seen an equivalent of a Srebrenica for each week of January 2026.
5/ 🔺 During the 8-year long Iran-Iraq war, monthly fatalities ranged from an estimated 1,216 to 2,432 per month. That is equivalent to between two or three days' fatalities in Ukraine last month.
6/🔺 At the peak of the Vietnam War in 1969, the US lost an average of 521 soldiers a month. Russia lost on average twice that number on every single day of January 2026.
7/ 🔺 During World War II, the monthly number of deaths across the entire Nazi concentration camp system (excluding the extermination camps) was usually far lower than in Ukraine in January 2026.
8/🔺 The SS recorded camp system-wide death tolls between July 1942 and June 1943. In no month were more than 12,217 deaths recorded – only a little more than a third sustained by the Russians in January 2026.
9/🔺 Dachau concentation camp became infamous for the huge numbers of deaths recorded in the final four months of the war in 1945. However, the number of fatalities in that time was "only" 2,600 to 4,000 per month – equivalent to a few days' worth of Russian losses.
10/🔺 Even at Auschwitz, the most notorious of the extermination camps, monthly deaths were usually considerably less than those recorded in Ukraine in January 2026. During the 56 months it was in operation, an average of 19,500–20,000 were killed per month.
11/ In short, the Ukraine war is currently incurring a monthly dead toll far higher than anything seen since 1945, outside of outright genocides such as in Rwanda. Its only real point of comparison is the two World Wars, which – not coindentally – saw intense fighting in Ukraine.
12/ It's also worth noting that the Russians, according to most estimates, have suffered far higher losses than the Ukrainians – and many of these losses have been born disproportionately by economically disadvantaged ethnic minorities. It's a self-genocide for Russia. /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ The Russian ultranationalist community has exploded into a fit of apoplectic rage over Volodymr Zelenskyy's decree 'permitting' Russia to hold its Victory Day parade. They condemn it as a humiliation for Russia and call for maximum retaliation. ⬇️
2/ Russian Telegram channels have had a meltdown over Zelenskyy's decree declaring Red Square to be off-limits for attacks on 9th May in order "to permit the holding of a parade in the city of Moscow (Russian Federation)." Many helpfully translate it for their readers.
3/ 'DSHRG Rusych' grumbles: "Is this denazification or demilitarisation? (We can't figure it out)."
'Novorossiya militia reports' is furious: "Is this what the Russian government was aiming for?"
1/ A recent video filmed by Russian soldiers shows Ukrainian AI-controlled Hornet drones hunting for Russian targets near Mariupol. A Russian UAV specialist warns that advanced AI processing will soon turn the Hornet into a fully automated system. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine introduced the US-designed Hornet into large-scale battlefield use in the last few months. It is already being described by the Russians as a game-changer and a severe threat to their rear logistics, due to its advanced design and AI systems.
2/ This photo shows the Project 06363 (Kilo class) submarine Mozhaisk and Project 877EKM (Kilo class, built for tropical waters) submarine Dmitrov, equipped with anti-drone protection, in Kronstadt near St. Petersburg.
3/ The first submarine's defensive armament consists of a heavy machine gun, likely intended for use against unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which is mounted on a turret aft of the keel, and a searchlight on the navigation bridge.
1/ A high-profile figure in Russian drone development has been arrested on charges of large-scale fraud. It's another illustration of how Russia's pervasive corruption is hampering its efforts to become a leading developer and producer of drone technology. ⬇️
2/ On Friday 8 May, the Sverdlovsky District Court of Belgorod arrested Yuri Kozarenko, former CEO of Transport of the Future LLC, and sent him to a pre-trial detention centre. He is under investigation for alleged large-scale fraud; details have not yet been released.
3/ Kozarenko, 36, is a native of the Belgorod region and did his military service in the Russian Naval Infantry (Marines). He joined the EFKO Group of Companies in 2012 and rose to become the head of the corporate university and innovation centre.
1/ A new military treaty between Russia and Nicaragua has gone into force, enabling Russia to base troops, special forces, and surveillance facilities in the Central American country. However, warns a warblogger, it's now potentially Russia's last strongpoint in the Americas. ⬇️
2/ Russia and Nicaragua have maintained close defence ties for decades, dating back to Soviet-era support for the Sandinista government in the 1980s. Cooperation has deepened under President Daniel Ortega, with a new agreement signed in November 2025 and now ratified by Russia.
3/ Nicaragua relies heavily on Russian (and former Soviet) military equipment—reportedly about 90% of its arms imports—and has received recent donations such as helicopters, transport aircraft, air defence systems, and tanks.
1/ With Donald Trump ("our Trumpushka") increasingly seen as irrelevant to the war in Ukraine, Russian warbloggers are increasingly calling for "demonstrative strikes" on the EU, UK and Canada to force them to cease support for Ukraine and negotiate a peace settlement. ⬇️
2/ On 15 April 2026, Russia’s Ministry of Defence published detailed lists of European companies and facilities it claimed were producing strike drones (UAVs) and components for Ukraine. It explicitly framed these joint production sites as "potential targets".
3/ This has led to calls from Russian warbloggers to attack the facilities. Alexey Zhivov posted a particularly lurid example of this a couple of weeks ago (see thread below). 'Pint of Reason' provides a strategic rationale for Russia to do so.