Stalin expected to crush Finland in 10 days. It took 105 days and 400,000 Soviet casualties. He got 10% of Finnish territory.
Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a quick victory parade. 4 years later, Russia controls just 20% of pre-war Ukrainian territory — WP. 1/
Stalin's USSR had 170 million people vs Finland's 3.5 million. A Soviet general told Stalin it would take 10 days max.
Molotov said Stalin wanted to celebrate his birthday "on the steps of Finland's Parliament in precisely 20 days." 2/
The war ended March 13, 1940 — over three months later with massive Soviet losses the Kremlin concealed.
Stalin had to settle for a fraction of what he wanted. Sound familiar? 3/
Putin's "special military operation" (calling it a war means prison) has now lasted longer than Russia's entire involvement in WWII.
Russia controls just 20% of Ukrainian territory it held four years ago. Putin has "surely defined success down." 4/
Before Stalin attacked Finland, Molotov admitted negotiations were "never anything but a long fuse."
If Finland accepted Soviet demands? "We'll only ask for more until we've taken the whole country." Today's Stalinist in the Kremlin is no different. 5/
Any Ukraine deal without real security guarantees — permanent troop deployments, access to frozen Russian assets, real enforcement — is just "a sizzling fuse."
Putin, like Stalin, won't stop unless forced. 6/
Russia's most stolen book in 2023 was Orwell's "1984." In 2025? The Russian constitution guaranteeing free speech.
Russians "read Orwell for reality, the constitution as a beautiful utopia." History repeating as tragedy and farce. 7X
FT: Zelenskyy at Munich said he'd hold elections but only after two months of ceasefire and with security guarantees in place.
He's pushing back hard on US pressure to hold votes by May 15. 1/
Washington wants elections and a peace deal by mid-May, with security guarantees contingent on the broader settlement. Kyiv insists security guarantees must come before any peace deal is signed. 2/
White House is pressing — “hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace deal by May 15 or risk losing US security guarantees entirely.” That's the ultimatum hanging over Zelenskyy in Munich. 3/
Xi Jinping purged 5 of 6 generals in China's top military body over past three years. He reaches back to Maoist tactics of "rectification."
Only two members left in Central Military Commission: Xi and Vice Chairman who oversees purges — The NYT. 1/
In January, Xi called on China to remember Yan'an, where Mao transformed guerrilla fighters into disciplined force through campaign of political terror that eliminated rivals and cemented his absolute authority. 2/
Last year 983,000 officials punished for violating party rules — highest number on record.
John Garnaut, Garnaut Global founder: "Xi believes he needs to build foundation of absolute ideological unity and personal loyalty for future battles." 3/
Finland Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen: Russia has most of its biggest strategic capabilities in nuclear, submarines, and long-range bombers in the Kola Peninsula area.
They are building new military facilities along our border, same as in the Cold War — United24. 1/
Kola Peninsula hosts most of Russia's sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal — submarines and long-range aviation assets.
Häkkänen: "It would be wise to watch the Arctic and build Arctic capabilities for deterrence. High North should have been treated as priority years ago." 2/
Finland's forces are "fully Arctic" and ready to share expertise with allies. Finland requested funding under $177.8b EU defense loan scheme.
$1.19b approved by European Commission last month. Big part of money will go to land forces: armored vehicles and drones. 3X
Hodges: Nobody believes that if Russia gets that last bit of Donbas they will be satisfied and stop.
I’ve listened to Putin, Medvedev. They haven’t backed down on anything. Why should anybody think that’s all they wanted? 1/
Hodges: I can’t imagine Putin admitting his war was a huge mistake. Maybe people say, “You are destroying us.” Or maybe he doesn’t know what’s going on.
For years we were told the ex-KGB officer is smart, playing three-dimensional chess. If he doesn’t know, that’s his fault. 2/
Hodges: Casualties don’t matter to Putin. What matters is whether he can stay in power and whether the economy can generate enough money to keep the war going.
That’s why destroying Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure is a good strategy. 3/
At Munich Security Conference world leaders declared post-1945 world order is dead — Ray Dalio.
Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists. We are in a period of great power politics. Freedom is no longer a given". 1/
Macron: Europe's old security structures tied to previous world order don't exist. Europe must prepare for war.
Rubio: We are in a new geopolitics era because the old world is gone. 2/
Ray Dalio: We are in Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from a period where there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers.
This is the stage where international relations follow the law of the jungle. 3/
Russia's foreign intelligence service planned military coup in Senegal.
Leaked documents show Moscow recruited local military figures to seize power and prepared political and logistical support for new regime — United24. 1/
After Prigozhin's death, Russia brought Wagner under direct control of foreign intelligence service.
76 internal documents from 2023-2024 show transfer of Wagner's assets to state structures. Key figures include Sergei Mashkevich, Sergei Klyukin, Artem Gorny. 2/
Russia created "African Political Science" with $750K monthly budget.
Uses St. Petersburg offices to coordinate operations in 30+ countries. Organization divided into political operations for lobbying and media operations for manipulative social media content. 3/