Giancarlo Sopo Profile picture
Feb 16 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Secretary @marcorubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference is the most significant address by an American statesman this decade and one of the most conservative articulations of foreign policy in a generation. There's a lot of justified excitement about it on the right for good reason. Too often our intellectual tradition has been reduced to bumper sticker slogans from 1980, and that's not what his speech is at all, so let's unpack what makes it so distinct.

Burkean Diplomacy

The dominant philosophy in Rubio's worldview is Burkean conservatism. Most Americans outside of think tanks have never heard of Edmund Burke, and frankly too much of the modern American right bears little resemblance to his thought. But Burke is the 18th century Irish statesman who is the intellectual forefather of conservatism as we know it. His core insights animate this speech: civilization is a sacred inheritance and our identity is something received rather than invented. When Rubio talks about settlers carrying "the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors," that's Burke on a diplomatic stage. The idea that society is a partnership between the dead, the living, and the unborn runs throughout his address and it's as Burkean as it gets.

Huntington as the Structural Backbone

If Burke is the speech's philosophical North Star, Samuel Huntington is the meat and potatoes. The entire address is organized around civilizations, not institutions or ideologies. "Armies do not fight for abstractions. Armies fight for a people, a nation, a way of life." That's Burkean thought combined with Huntington's Clash of Civilizations as diplomacy. Rubio outright dismisses the post-Cold War bet that trade and institutions would replace identity as the organizing principle of politics.

What the Speech Rejects

The rejection of Francis Fukuyama's "end of history" as a "dangerous delusion" is the speech's polemical anchor. Rubio argues that what should replace it isn't amoral great-power competition, but a vision of the West as a particular civilization with a particular inheritance worth defending. Not because it embodies universal truths, but because it's ours.

Catholic Social Teaching in Diplomatic Language

Rubio's remarks also reflect a deep Catholic sensibility that has gone largely unnoticed. His invocation of Christianity, the Sistine Chapel, Cologne Cathedral, and Columbus bringing faith to the Americas is doing serious intellectual and spiritual work. And when he dismisses "dogmatic free and unfettered trade" that deindustrialized Western societies, he's directly channeling Catholic social teaching. Leo XIII's Rerum Novarum, to be exact, in diplomatic language.

What's Absent

There is no Locke in this speech. No social contract. No universal rights language. That an American Secretary of State defended Western civilization without once invoking the Enlightenment framework that has grounded American diplomacy since Truman is noteworthy, and I'm not sure it has a precedent.

Right-Wing Critiques

Some on the right have pushed back against Rubio's skepticism of abstractions, interpreting it as a rejection of the American founding. I think that's a misreading. First, it's textbook Burke, so it should be intimately familiar to conservatives. Second, Rubio is obviously not against liberty. He's arguing that its defense should be rooted in the national interest and in the cultural inheritance of a people. Yes, many have died throughout history defending Christianity, but Rubio would argue that faith is not an abstraction. It is the spiritual and moral inheritance of a civilization, and defending it is fundamentally different than dying for a regulatory framework from Brussels. Also, none of this is isolationism. It's foreign policy grounded in national and civilizational interests, rather than the defense of liberalism for liberalism's sake.

A Novel Synthesis

None of these ideas are separately new to American politics. What is novel in the post-Cold War era is their synthesis into a single coherent foreign policy vision. Burke, Huntington, Catholic social thought, and foreign policy realism don't naturally sit together and they do have some internal tensions, but Rubio resolves this by making Western civilization the intellectual framework that holds them all in place. The postwar alliance remains, but on sovereigntist rather than post-national liberal terms. That's the real pivot, and it's why this speech matters far beyond the moment.Image

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More from @GiancarloSopo

Nov 28, 2024
I’m a media strategist who watches hundreds of movies a year. Straddling cinema and political comms, I constantly think about visual storytelling.

Every frame tells a story — and Kamala Harris’s much-panned DNC video tells the wrong one.

Here's why.🧵
The lighting in the DNC video is flat and harsh, giving the frame a dull, washed-out appearance. It creates shadows that emphasize tiredness rather than vitality. Proper soft lighting could have softened the look and conveyed warmth and energy. Compare this with her campaign ads.Image
Image
Wardrobe: Harris’s brown blazer blends into the beige background. What story does this tell? She's fading. Contrast this with the vibrant use of color in Visconti's The Leopard. Delon’s crisp white shirt and Cardinale’s shimmering gown stand out against rich golden hues, elegantly drawing you to them.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 10, 2024
🚨🚨

Eye-popping numbers among likely voters in the NYT / Siena Swing State Poll:

Combined: Harris +5
MI: Harris +5
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +6

Whites: Even
Blacks: Harris +68
Suburbs: Harris +11
White College: Harris +23

$0.02: It's early but the warning lights are flashing.Image
My take: I don't get hung up on cross-tabs in August but...

- Minority data seems right
- The +65 data is too rosy for Dems
- Dems are prob doing better than +18 with Gen Z (won them by ~30 in 2022)
- Shifts w/ college-whites and suburbs make sense
FWIW, in case you've missed my other tweets outside this thread: I think this poll overstates Harris' margins in these three states.

Trump carried whites by 11 points in MI, PA, and WI in 2020. It's plausible that the Democrats have made gains with this demographic, but I don't think they're tied now — inconsistent with a lot of other data.

Conversely, I think Harris is probably running 10 points ahead with young voters and blacks than where this poll shows.

If you make reasonable adjustments on both sides, this poll goes from Harris +5 to about Harris +2 or 2.5.

Statistical tie with a lot of ball left to play. Republicans shouldn't panic, but it is a more competitive race now and some recalibration may be warranted.
Read 4 tweets
May 19, 2023
As I've been saying: One of the country's top Disney reporters (yes, this is a beat) just confirmed Ron DeSantis had little to do w/ the Orlando project cancelation.

(1) Too costly
(2) Relocation issues
(3) Iger hated it

If they lie about this, what else are they lying about?
When this reporter says this project's cancelation was expected, that's because Iger himself suggested it back in November.

People who cover Disney (not political reporters) have known this has been in the works for months. Image
The HR issues were huge. Disney lost talent.

If you've ever held a senior level marketing role, you know how hard it is to find A-list creative talent.

It's especially hard outside of NYC and LA. Disney was going to have to spend a ton on perks and partnering w/ local schools.
Read 4 tweets
May 18, 2023
I'm going to walk through these poll numbers in this thread.

Long story short: The numbers strain credulity. We are not winning Hawaii by 57 points. 😂

Please follow along...
The first red flag is the presence of a "third candidate." But it doesn't say whom.

Was it a Democrat who siphons votes off of Biden? We don't know.

Either way, the fruit of the poisonous tree rule applies: the rest of the poll is tainted by this, but let's continue. Image
Next, let's look at the gender breakdown here.

Trump won men by 2 in 2020. This has him +10.4.

Biden won 55% of women in 2020. This has him at 38%. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 1, 2023
The past 24 hrs have been enlightening.

Team Trump insists Ron DeSantis must stop and pontificate on the Tucker-Fox separation.

Meanwhile, DeSantis enacted the death penalty for child rape.

One of them is serious about governing. The other sees politics as entertainment.
Like I've said, Tucker is successful, talented and he is going to land on his feet.

The job of a leader isn't to go out of his way to engage in media industry punditry.

Our country has serious problems. The time for f-ing around is over.
It is a free country. You have a right to believe the country lacks serious issues and our leaders should spend their time engaging in media gossip, rather than addressing Americans' concerns.

But if you believe this, your choice in 2024 is clear — and it is Joe Biden.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
The Democrats’ first reaction to their losses with Hispanics is to deny them. “It’s just Florida" (aka "it’s just Cubans"), they’re arguing.

Next, they’ll blame "Spanish disinformation.”

An overview of election and polling data debunks both contentions.
The national polls are clear: Whether you prefer the AP’s D+16 or the network exit poll’s D+21 margin, Republicans just had their best midterm performance ever with Hispanics.

The previous best was D+22 in ‘94, a landslide year for the GOP.

Kudos to @Danielle_Alva and her team.
Let’s look more closely at non-Cubans in Florida.

DeSantis won 58% of the total Hispanic vote. 2/3 of the FL Hispanics are not Cuban (he won 69% of them).

He won 56% of Puerto Ricans and about half of the remaining Hispanics, who are mostly Mexicans and Colombians.
Read 11 tweets

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