Raylan Givens Profile picture
Feb 16 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
⭕️🧵In a few hours, the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran will begin. Here is a guide explaining how a “Turkish Bazaar”—or, more accurately, a Middle Eastern bazaar—works and how to avoid its pitfalls. By the way, 'bāzār' is a Persian word, meaning "place of prices."
📌 The item you are selling: Most of the time, the item you want to sell is not even worth a fraction of the price you’re asking for, but you make it seem like it’s the best thing since sliced bread. You also play the game of claiming “these items are not for sale” to increase their perceived value.
📌 Now comes the pre-negotiations: First, you play hard to get, forcing the other side to make compromises before talks even begin.
📌 Second, you publicly take an uncompromising stand and advertise it everywhere: “I refuse to even negotiate about certain items.” But at the negotiation table, you "suddenly" agree to the other side's "asking price," which you deny publicly. You have no issue giving the other side their asking price, because you have no intention of actually giving them the “real item for sale”—you will most likely sell them a fake item instead.
📌 Third, stall—prolong the negotiation as much as possible to discourage the other side and make them offer a higher price for your merchandise.
📌 In the Middle East, the only language that counts is strength. It’s survival of the fittest—the more people fear you, the stronger your position. Making threats or showing off your powerful army is not as effective as actually using it. The US needed to do two things: First, strike Iran hard and consistently to instill fear, then play hard to get until they beg you to stop. Second, send skilled Middle Eastern negotiators who know how to negotiate in the region; sending real estate developers is doomed to fail.
📌 To summarize: Watch everything that has unfolded so far, and what will unfold in the coming weeks, and you will see this is a classic Middle Eastern bazaar.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Raylan Givens

Raylan Givens Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JewishWarrior13

Jun 17
⭕️🧵WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE US AND ISRAEL? A new axis of evil has just formed before our eyes: Iran, Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey. Shockingly, Trump now fully supports them and considers them allies. Israel's security concerns are no longer a priority for Trump; he cares little for Israel. Let’s examine the fronts Israel is fighting on, along with my predictions for each:
📌 Iran: Israel will return to covert warfare, fighting the regime from within and continuing to damage its terror infrastructure, eliminating key IRGC figures, and seeking to destabilize the leadership. The Mossad will assume a leading role, operating beyond the use of IDF jets.
📌 Lebanon: Israel will accelerate the destruction of all terrorist infrastructure and villages along the Israeli border to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing positions and launching another 10/7-style attack. Trump will force Israel to withdraw in order to preserve his surrender deal with Iran. Israel, however, will strike in Lebanon on its own terms after any withdrawal.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 17
⭕️ 🧵Many good people correctly point out that we defeated Iran militarily. I agree, but what was the point? All we did was kick the can down the road—while not only giving Iran a huge amount of money, but also handing them the most powerful weapon they could have dreamed of: control over the Strait of Hormuz. A thread. 👇
📌 Before the war started, the Strait of Hormuz was open. Iran was economically broken—the sanctions were crippling the regime from within. Protests were increasing and threatened the regime’s survival. Their nuclear program had been set back at least 5–7 years. Both the US and Israel were closely monitoring enriched uranium 24/7 after it was bombed, and any attempt by Iran to recover it (which is complicated, even for Iran) would have been met with a strike.
📌 During the war, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. About 85% of Iran’s military defense complex and supporting industries were destroyed. Most of their ballistic missiles—about 70%—were eliminated, and the majority of their military was wiped out. The nuclear program remained unchanged from before the war. The blockade was demolishing what was left of their economy. The proxies were on their knees. All that was needed was some patience.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
⭕🧵 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi is giving an interview on Iranian television about the emerging deal with the US, here is what he said:
📌 The best time to end a war is when we have the upper hand. We are indeed winning on the battlefield. We have stood for 40 days against what is considered the world's superpower. An agreement and an end to the war will anchor this victory.
📌 The final agreement has not yet been reached. If it is completed, I promise to explain every clause in it. The agreement includes two phases, and we have moved the nuclear issue to the second phase.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 8
⭕️🧵Full details from last night's marathon of talks and consultations between Bibi and Trump and senior US leadership: In Israel, there was a desire to carry out a more "significant" attack in terms of the targets to be hit. Among other things, last night there was a discussion with the US leadership about the possibility of attacking energy facilities—the US message was unequivocal: NO
📌 As is known, PM Netanyahu spoke last night with President Trump, but not only him; there was a marathon of talks held last night by PM Netanyahu, including with Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegeseth, where they went into the details and targets to be attacked.
📌 Senior Israelis briefed on the Netanyahu-Trump conversation say President Trump told the PM: attack and move on.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5
🧵REVEALED - THE IDF'S PLAN FOR LEBANON: Earlier today, IDF Radio revealed the detailed plan that the IDF has come up with for a new security zone in Southern Lebanon. This will likely shape the region for the coming years so let's dive in.
The core of this plan is the COMPLETE destruction of the first line of villages along the Lebanon-Israel border and the creation of a *depopulated* “security zone” where Lebanese residents would not be allowed to return.
The IDF says that Hezbollah has spent the past year trying to rebuild terror infrastructure near the border and the entire belt roughly 3–4 km from the border must become a cleared security area with a new forward line of Israeli positions.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 19
⭕️🧵Senior IDF Air Force official: During 18 days of fighting, air activity was carried out equivalent in scope to a "whole year of operational activity." A Thread.
📌 Air Force pilots conducted more than 8,500 strikes across Iran in less than three weeks, using over 12,000 bombs. About 3,600 munitions were dropped in Tehran alone.
📌 In the "Rising Lion" operation in June, the IDF focused its efforts on three areas in Iran, while in the "Roar of the Lion" operation, the IDF operated throughout Iran. One-fifth of the air strikes change their targets while the aircraft are in the air.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(