⭕️🧵In a few hours, the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran will begin. Here is a guide explaining how a “Turkish Bazaar”—or, more accurately, a Middle Eastern bazaar—works and how to avoid its pitfalls. By the way, 'bāzār' is a Persian word, meaning "place of prices."
📌 The item you are selling: Most of the time, the item you want to sell is not even worth a fraction of the price you’re asking for, but you make it seem like it’s the best thing since sliced bread. You also play the game of claiming “these items are not for sale” to increase their perceived value.
📌 Now comes the pre-negotiations: First, you play hard to get, forcing the other side to make compromises before talks even begin.
📌 Second, you publicly take an uncompromising stand and advertise it everywhere: “I refuse to even negotiate about certain items.” But at the negotiation table, you "suddenly" agree to the other side's "asking price," which you deny publicly. You have no issue giving the other side their asking price, because you have no intention of actually giving them the “real item for sale”—you will most likely sell them a fake item instead.
📌 Third, stall—prolong the negotiation as much as possible to discourage the other side and make them offer a higher price for your merchandise.
📌 In the Middle East, the only language that counts is strength. It’s survival of the fittest—the more people fear you, the stronger your position. Making threats or showing off your powerful army is not as effective as actually using it. The US needed to do two things: First, strike Iran hard and consistently to instill fear, then play hard to get until they beg you to stop. Second, send skilled Middle Eastern negotiators who know how to negotiate in the region; sending real estate developers is doomed to fail.
📌 To summarize: Watch everything that has unfolded so far, and what will unfold in the coming weeks, and you will see this is a classic Middle Eastern bazaar.
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🚨🧵From Israel Hayom: Israeli frustration with Witkoff: Pushing for a non-military solution to Iran—despite the evidence
A senior Israeli official confirms that Witkoff is the mediator with Iran: "Witkoff brought Trump a WhatsApp message from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and added a written promise from President Massoud Pazakhsian in order to convince him to postpone the attack."
This may not be the only reason for the postponement, as preparations for a serious operation were incomplete two weeks ago, but it also affected the president's mood. "Even now, when intelligence information and testimonies from Iranians are reaching Israel and intelligence agencies in other countries in the region, as well as the United States itself, even now, Witkoff is trying to convince them to follow the diplomatic path to solving the Iran problem," the senior Israeli official says with apparent frustration.
🧵An Iran expert is warning that Tehran’s response to US or Israeli strikes may go far beyond missiles and UAVs and could include ground invasion plans and activation of sleeper terror cells, potentially inside Israel and the United States. Join me as we break it down 👇
The warning comes from Dr. Yossi Mansharof of the Misgav Institute, who has closely tracked Iranian regime messaging for years. His assessment was published in a position paper obtained by Israel Hayom.
According to Mansharof, Iranian-affiliated media and regime-linked figures are openly discussing retaliation options including missile barrages, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and increasingly, a ground invasion of Israel.
🚨 🧵An Iranian activist associated with the opposition with testimony depicting the situation in Iran, as of yesterday, based on conversations with family members and acquaintances living in Iran:
Many are attacked at night in their homes. For example, two nights ago in the Funk area (Chahardavari—Tehran), gunshots were heard. The forces searched for wounded who fled and hid in friends' homes. If a chase occurs, they shoot directly at unprotected civilians. Last night, also in Shiraz (Vasal area), during a night raid on the home of one of the protesters, he was thrown out of the window and killed on the spot.
In southern Iran, the situation is even worse: some have fled to the sea and are hiding on fishing boats, while drones and boats of the Revolutionary Guards are searching for them nonstop. In the cities of the Kurdistan, Mazandaran, Golestan, and West Azerbaijan provinces, people have been forced to live temporarily in the mountains.
🚨 🧵 An Iranian opposition activist reports based on his sources about the general situation in Iran as of last night: A new wave of protests has begun in Marvdasht (Fars Province) and Kuhdasht (Lorestan Province), led by the families of the protesters who were killed.
📌 Throughout Iran, a situation resembling martial law prevails; Iranian security forces (Revolutionary Guards, Basij, and suppression forces) alongside non-Iranian forces (the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade and the Iraqi Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi) roam the streets, demonstrating power and instilling fear.
📌 Trade strikes continue in most cities. In some areas, the regime manages to temporarily break them under threats (business closures, bank account freezes, revocation of business licenses). The situation is volatile.
🧵⭕️Why the US & Israel are not striking IranYET: Many people keep asking when/if the US and Israel will strike Iran given the massive confusion in the media. The short answer is that because neither side is ready, and half-measures would fail. Let's dive into it 👇
Toppling a regime like Iran’s will not be accomplished with one night of airstrikes from the US. It requires sustained pressure, air superiority, broad missile defense, and logistics. These things take time to prepare for and put into place.
Israel learned the hard way during the 12-Day War that defending against large-scale ballistic missile attacks is extremely difficult, even with the world's best air defenses. 34 Israelis were killed and billions of dollars in property damage is nothing to scoff at.
🚨🧵Newly released transcripts reveal interesting private conversations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President George Bush on Iran’s nuclear program from 2001–2008. Let's dive in to what they said
At their first meeting in 2001, Putin surprised Bush when he said: “There’s no doubt Iran wants nuclear weapons.”
He said Russian experts were alarmed by Iranian scientists asking sensitive, weapons-related questions, even though Russia maintained cooperation with Tehran.
Bush warned that an Iranian bomb would destabilize the entire region — and threaten Russia as well.
Putin agreed, but stressed Moscow’s “complex history” with Iran and admitted that financial interests and contractors were hard to fully control inside Russia.