Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia may be preparing to announce a mass mobilisation, a bad peace deal with the US, or confiscate people's savings to fund the war effort, according to Russian warbloggers. They suspect that the government wants to ban Telegram to block public dissent over such moves. ⬇️

2/ Russian officials have hinted strongly that Telegram, which is currently being slowed down and partly blocked by the government, faces a total ban by 1 April 2026. 'Alex Parker Returns' writes (in a since-deleted post) that the government faces a dilemma:

3/ "Either capitulate in accordance with the renewed spirit of Anchorage—freezing the line of contact, surrendering the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and other whimsical proposals that our esteemed partners will come up with along the way, …

4/ …because it's best to kill the weak, and appetite, as they say, comes with eating. Or remobilise to complete the liberation of Donbas by force.

5/ "The front has long since collapsed, the assault groups are exhausted, and what's more, a negative offensive has even begun at the junction of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. In either scenario, Telegram is a pain in the ass.

6/ "Because the hysterics will be all over the place. So, without thinking twice, the old-timers decided to block everything completely. Live with it now."

7/ Anastasia Kashevarova is thinking along similar lines:

"What will happen in April if Telegram is blocked on April 1st?

What's going on there—sowing season, the draft? Maybe something else very important that will affect everyone?"

8/ "Indicators have been circulating for a long time about spring and an important event for the front.

And here's the question: Telegram is certainly not blocked due to compliance with the law, and VK doesn't block all kinds of extremists either.

9/ "Telegram is being targeted for its informational power. This power is beyond the control of the state, and there are likely to be fateful decisions and global changes ahead.

To prevent Telegram from destabilising an already complex situation, it is easier to shut it down."

10/ 'Two Majors' relays the view of the troops:

"We want to convey to the senior people reading this, the work against Telegram is perceived by volunteers and frontline soldiers as preparation for a deal [with the United States]."

11/ "It's quiet, unspoken, under trumped-up pretexts and within the framework of general agreements to reduce the capabilities of the Russian Army in exchange for reducing Ukraine's military potential.

12/ "So, it's not even a group of our elites that is collecting negativity, but rather, it's generally perceived as [preparation for] a deal with the West.

13/ "The situation at the front is dire. Telegram has always been a release valve for negativity, becoming an organizing link in horizontal connections, an ecosystem.

This whole thing is incredibly inopportune."

14/ 'Archangel Spetsnaz' warns that abandoning Telegram will devastate Russia's soft power internationally:

"There's no country in the world where the Telegram community is as developed as in Russia."

15/ "We were the first to turn this platform into a weapon of information warfare and propaganda. And now we're simply ready to dump it?

Telegram has become a viable means of communication for our servicemen on the battlefield thanks to its speed and convenience.

16/ "No 'Azart' [military radio] app can provide the speed of decision-making that Telegram offers.

Telegram has also become a means of combating the enemy in the information space, where they constantly inject false and misleading information.

17/ "And now they want to remove it, and the question arises: is it even necessary? And why deprive our citizens and servicemen of communication during active combat?

18/ "There's no communication as it is, everything is jammed, all the [online forums] have stopped, everything has stopped...

And meanwhile, the Ukrainians are clapping their hands."

19/ 'When the cannons started singing' heaps scorn on the "elders" responsible for the restrictions on Telegram, pointing out their negative consequences. He asks:

"What kind of idiot would want to completely block Telegram?"

20/ "The logic is astounding: we'll pour billions of rubles into developing our Telegram channels, create our own domestic messenger, which we'll force on the population, releasing it in an extremely crude version with astonishingly crappy and boring functionality,…

21/ …and then ban Telegram, which supposedly connects with the entire world. And into which we've poured megatons of money.

Those old-timers with their heads still full of the 80s are completely nuts; they should get an IV or see a specialist.

22/ "Throwing money around like this and breaking your own leg in the age of information competition—that's something to be learned. Someone explain to them that the age of newspapers is over and there's no need to print out A4 paper and read those fledgling internets these days.

23/ "They're so fucking slow, it's terrifying. Not a single Ukrainian soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has harmed the Russian Federation as much as the elders are doing now."

Maxim Kalashnikov is extremely gloomy about what a Telegram ban portends:

24/ "Why is our elite jamming Telegram? They know full well that this will disrupt communications at the front, especially in combination with the shutdown of Starlink. This means they consider this the lesser evil compared to what could happen next.

25/ "It is obvious to me that some extremely unpopular "difficult decisions" are being prepared that could cause mass protests. To prevent them, we need to cut off the possibility of coordination and horizontal communications via the Internet and instant messengers.

26/ "Even if the troops suffer.

What "difficult decisions" are possible? There are not many.

- A new wave of reservist conscription in the hopes of "crushing" Ukraine with masses.

27/ "- Converting the population's bank deposits into a state war loan.

- Signing an armistice with Ukraine on terms far removed from 9 May 1945.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a deepening systemic crisis, inflation, and impoverishment.

28/ "I believe the Banderites in Kyiv are counting on Russia's implosion from within (as in 1905 and 1917), prolonging the war and not relinquishing the remainder of the Donetsk region. They're digging their heels in over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

29/ "Instead of wiping out Ukraine's elite with an airborne operation (drones, missiles, and aircraft), our leadership is attempting to adopt the methods of World War I. This is extremely dangerous.

30/ "Because if the economy collapses, cutting off the Telegram channel and all communications won't help. Both the "elite" and the security forces will begin to disintegrate. Zelensky's gang is clearly counting on this."

31/ 'Veterans' Notes' is resigned; complaining is futile because the government will do whatever it wants:

32/ "You can dislike and negatively comment as much as you want, but Telegram will be blocked soon. There are major events planned for September, so that's what it will be." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/akashevarova/8…
🔹 t.me/dva_majors/883…
🔹 t.me/rusich_army/28…
🔹 t.me/cs_association…
🔹 t.me/roy_tv_mk/18760
🔹 t.me/notes_veterans…