arctotherium Profile picture
Feb 21 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
In 2009, Denmark cut the top marginal tax rate 7%, from 63% to 56%. Thanks to Denmark's population register, we can estimate the effect of this tax cut on the fertility of coupled (married+cohabitation) men and women. More money increased male and reduced female fertility. Image
Specifically: higher wages (increasing the opportunity cost of time) reduced women's fertility and had negligible effects on men, while higher incomes (increased money overall) had negligible effects on women and increased male fertility (ie, children are a normal good).
Many pro-natal policies are effectively transfers from men to women, which is counterproductive.
I don't think there's a good reason why the status quo (men handicapped, women boosted) is morally superior to the reverse.
Source of the paper. Chart comes from column 3 of table 2. harris.uchicago.edu/sites/default/…

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More from @arctotherium42

Mar 27
Master thread on the 2015-2022 closure of the Internet, the process by which every major Internet platform went from broadly open with a few basic guidelines to strict narrative enforcement, often with the collaboration of govts and outsourcing moderation power to NGOs.
YouTube was the most important platform for reaching The Youth and also uniquely compatible with monetization, allowing independent political/intellectual entrepreneurs to make a career. Closed 2015-2019.
Reddit was known for its "anything goes" speech policy in 2015, and was the hub for text-based debate between normal people on opposing sides of issues. Turned into a leftist echo-chamber to spite r/TheDonald.
Read 22 tweets
Mar 24
To make fact-checking work during the closure of the Internet, social media platforms had to know the ground truth of claims. Since this is not precisely knowable, they outsourced determining the truth to a web of news organizations and NGOs. Thread on these. Image
Most official fact-checking organizations were certified by other the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) or the European Fact-Checking Standards Network (EFCSN), which created a chokepoint in the ecosystem. Image
The IFCN was founded by the Poynter Institute, a school of journalism, in 2015, after a $1M foundation grant. They hired an ex-SPLC employee to create a list of 515 orgs to be used in ad blacklists, including mainstream conservative ones like the Washington Examiner. Image
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Read 22 tweets
Mar 24
Canada provides several privileges for officially-recognized media organizations, such as tax refunds up to 35% of labor costs and huge transfers directly from platforms where their content is posted. Australia, UK, South Africa, Brazil, and NZ have similar programs. Image
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France subsidizes officially-recognized journalists to the tune of a billion pounds a year. The Nordics have a similar program. France and Italy also provide recognized journalists with tax credits. Image
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Unsurprisingly (it is basically the UK with good weather and Silicon Valley), California is going down a similar route of state-subsidized media. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
Thread on the role of Western government's in the closure of the Internet. Germany's 2017 NetzDG act, which forced large platforms to hire thousands of moderators or potentially face huge fines for hosting illegal content even outside of Germany, was the first major law. Image
This German law served as the template for similar laws in other authoritarian despotisms, such as Russia, Belarus, Venezuela, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, and India. Image
The EU has also exercised informal pressure, imposing a "Code of conduct on countering illegal hate speech online" on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Microsoft in 2016. Image
Read 19 tweets
Mar 17
This paper's analysis ofsocial science abstracts over time. Economics is slightly left-of-center but has been roughly consistent since 1960. The rest were solidly left of center in 1960, grew dramatically moreso 1960-70, and have continued trending left since then. Image
Between 1960 and 1970 you had physical violent takeovers of many colleges by leftist radicals, who succeeded in creating fake leftist academic fields and thereby institutionally capturing academia over the course of generations.
Because social sciences academia relies on consensus for promotion, without much feedback from reality, once an intolerant clique gains sufficient cohesion and numerical dominance, which happened 1960-70, they can kickstart a positive feedback loop with no self-correction. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
An admin for one of the biggest right-wing Facebook groups DM'd me with his impressions/experience with Facebook moderation and censorship (and gave me permission to post this thread). RW Facebook was big in 2016/17. Image
The big crackdown began in summer 2017; it did not take the form of bans for hate speech but rather all publicly-known admin accounts getting suspended for no reason, leading to the pages disappearing. Image
This included device bans which permanently destroyed most of the pages. Image
Read 5 tweets

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