Kasparov: Putin has vast capacity to create chaos in Europe. He wouldn’t even need to cross a border.
A few drones over key hubs, Frankfurt, Schiphol, De Gaulle, Heathrow, could paralyze European air travel. The West hasn’t shown an antidote, and Russian networks are active. 1/
Kasparov: Putin could stage a major provocation this year — I can’t put a percentage on it.
But if you look at his pattern of managing conflicts, a provocation against the Baltics is very likely — drones, “green men,” crossing near Narva or Daugavpils, or both.
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Kasparov: Europe must rebuild its defense around Germany and Poland, with the Baltics and Scandinavia and Ukraine at the core.
Without Ukraine, Europe won’t stand. As long as Ukraine fights and holds Putin back, a Baltic provocation becomes far harder for him.
Applebaum: At the same time the U.S. says it’s stepping back, it’s supporting far-right politicians and think tanks in Europe, movements that are pro-Russian, oppose defense spending, and undermine European unity.
So people ask: which is it? What is U.S. policy really?
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Applebaum: Nobody wants to break the NATO.
Beneath the politics, U.S.–Europe military ties are still strong — joint training, exercises, operations, intelligence cooperation. It’s not as if everything is broken.
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Applebaum: The U.S. is no longer giving real support to Ukraine — beyond some intelligence and weapons sales.
Now 99% of the weapons and money come from Europe. Three years ago that seemed impossible, but Europe’s defense industry has ramped up fast.
Former Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk: If we get a ceasefire, Ukrainians will cast ballots and elect the president. But that’s not on the radar right now.
Russians are playing this game, believing they can embroil Ukraine in domestic infight. The Ukrainian president is legitimate. 1/
Yatsenyuk: I do not see any intention on the side of Putin to cut any kind of peace deal with Ukraine. These so-called talks are a sham, with the idea to drag its feet and to outlast us. 2/
Yatsenyuk: There is no other scenario rather than to fight and to prevail. Putin's goal is to take over an entire Ukraine and annihilate Ukraine as a sovereign and independent nation. Putin is never straight. Putin is a professional KGB liar. 3X
Sullivan: The Chinese leadership says the East is rising, the West is declining. They believe the US is in decline and that democracy can’t succeed in XXI century.
Xi thinks China holds the high cards and America has vulnerabilities. There is real confidence from Beijing. 1/
Sullivan on Iran: If you got a deal, you put the nuclear program in a box, you get verification, and you’re not constantly lining up to take out enriched material or centrifuges or missiles.
I hope Trump would look seriously at the diplomatic option, but it’s likely there’ll be strikes. 2/
Sullivan on Venezuela: This is not a long-term sustainable strategy, but it has worked for a few weeks.
We asked for one big thing, let American oil companies exploit Venezuela’s oil resources. The question is whether there will be a democratic transition or just the status quo. 3X
2025 is the first year of the war in which Russian army losses exceeded recruitment. 418,000 killed or wounded vs 406,000 mobilized.
Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s main offensives — Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi for Le Monde. 1/
Syrskyi says Russia planned a large-scale 2025 offensive to seize all of Donbas, parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson, and create a buffer zone in Kharkiv and Sumy regions — but “it failed.” 2/
He credits two cross-border Ukrainian offensives in Belgorod (March–April) and Kursk (May–June) for forcing Russia to redeploy forces, preventing the planned spring offensive. 3/
Four Russian FPV drones hunted down a married couple as they tried to flee occupation near Sumy.
The man pulled his wounded wife on a sledge across no man’s land. A second strike tore her apart. A fourth killed him as he knelt beside her – The Times. 1/
The couple, Valentyna and Valerii Klochkov, had hidden in their cellar for six weeks after Russian troops captured their village before Christmas.
Hunger and cold forced them out. Their bodies still lie in the snow — no one can retrieve them under drone fire. 2/
In Kyiv, Oksana says anxiety pushes her to take tranquillisers, yet she keeps the dose low.
“I want to feel this. I don’t want to go through it as a vegetable,” she says, while her sister’s body lies unrecovered in the snow in Sumy region. 3/