Thread by @Maestermagoo

🧵 The Chicago Bears are almost certainly going to Hammond, Indiana. Here's why it's basically done, won't be exactly where you think, and why the deal is smarter than anyone's giving credit for. (Thread)

1/ Indiana signed SB27 into law this week. The Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority exists. The financing framework is signed. Indiana did in one session what Illinois couldn't do in three years.

2/ The site is Wolf Lake in Hammond — right at the Illinois border. On a clear day you frame the Chicago skyline behind the dome. The lake in front. It still *looks* like Chicago. That matters for a 100-year franchise.

3/ The dome isn't just a weather decision. BP Whiting refinery is nearby. A sealed, pressurized, filtered dome means once you're inside you're mentally in Chicago. You don't know or care what's outside.

4/ The business model math is from the Colts' Lucas Oil deal. Bears get all naming rights, all game-day revenue, half of non-Bears event revenue, 3,000 parking spaces. Rent: $250K/year. Property taxes: zero. (Owned by the stadium authority)

5/ Zero. Property. Taxes. The Stadium Authority owns the building. Public entities don't pay property tax in Indiana. Over 40 years that's worth $800M-$1.2B in present value versus Arlington's PILOT deal (should it pass.)

6/ Arlington's Illinois proposal gives property tax relief on the stadium footprint only. The surrounding 280+ acres of campus? Full market-rate assessment which is inflated by the very stadium getting the break. (Still a massive tax bill)

7/ Indiana also put a 12% admissions tax, doubled hotel tax, and food & beverage tax on the district. Almost all of it paid by Illinois residents crossing the border. Indiana built a revenue machine aimed at Chicago.

8/ Infrastructure to get fans there? Largely Illinois's problem. The traffic comes from the north and west through Illinois roads. Indiana captures the tax from the toll road right at the border. Illinois absorbs the congestion cost. Brutal. Smart.

9/ Now the part nobody's talking about: Virginia McCaskey died. The estate tax clock is running on a $6.4B franchise. The family is cash-poor, equity-rich. They must sell share to cover the bill.

10/ A stadium announcement (either location) roughly doubles franchise value to ~$13B. But the McCaskeys don't need more illiquid assets. They need cash flow to stop being cash poor. Hammond's Colts model delivers exactly that.

11/ Arlington asks them to invest more capital at the exact moment they're trying to find liquidity. Real estate they'd own but can't easily sell. Hammond asks for $2B, gives back superior annual operating income.

12/ The Bears' President Kevin Warren delivered the Vikings' US Bank Stadium dome. He knows exactly what this model looks like. He came here to build a dome. Wolf Lake is a dome site. Connect the dots.

13/ The skyline view isn't marketing fluff. It's franchise identity. The Bears aren't the Northwest Indiana Bears. From Wolf Lake they're still the Chicago Bears. Similar view as soldier field of water and you can see the Chicago skyline from the parking lot.

14/ However that view won't be exactly what you think. It won't be exactly at the lake. The secret is right here where there's several empty parcels for what was holding tanks that are now vacant circles of dirt.

15/ These tanks were removed because they leaked and are owned by ECI who has had to pay for environmental remediation already. The ground is compact, being crushed for decades by the weight of fluids, and shovel ready-ish (some additional remediation may be needed).

16/ The Bears will easily be able to put parking garages exiting off cline straight from the toll road right there leading into the stadium which will display the golf course, wolf lake, and the skyline with the large viewing window built into the dome which keeps odors out.

17/ The golf course itself is not feasible. It sits on a mountain of industrial waste, slag, from the steel mills. Establishing a foundation on this would be impossible- although I'm sure the Bears will put it to good use.

18/ Directly adjacent to the lake will be the mixed usage area. The stadium fits poorly there and building that foundation next to the lake is a nightmare. Smaller structures work better there.

19/ I drove the area yesterday and noticed something interesting. I rolled down the window to get a smell and caught a strong pine odor. The issue, there's not a ton of pine there presently. Most likely this was the Bears (or contractor) testing aerial neutralizers on site.

20/ An MOU is coming. The legislative framework is done. The site is identified. The estate pressure is real. The financial model is superior. Illinois is still negotiating. Indiana is waiting with a pen. Tests are ongoing.

21/ The Bears are going to Hammond. And Indiana just built a permanent revenue extraction machine aimed at the Chicago market, giving the bears a stadium paid for largely by Illinois citizens who will drive south to Bear Down.
Enjoy the new stadium!

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