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Mar 1 23 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ Russian commentators are sounding the alarm over America's use of a new kamikaze drone against Iran, the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS). They note that it appears to have an integrated Starlink terminal and warn that it's a serious threat to Russia. ⬇️ Image
2/ The use of LUCAS drones against Iran was announced yesterday by CENTCOM. This is the first time that the drone has been deployed in combat. It is reportedly reverse-engineered from the Iranian Shahed-136, which Russia has also adapted as the Geran-2 to use against Ukraine.
3/ 'Obsessed with war' writes:

"The Americans are showing a photo of their Geran-like LUCAS drones launching at targets in Iran."
4/ "And what do we see? A Starlink receiving antenna, which will allow the drone to be guided precisely to its target, if it's not shot down, remaining in contact until the last split second."
5/ "And if we don't find a solution to this satellite constellation within a year, things will be ugly for us."

'Russian Engineer' calls it "a very serious wake-up call. You could even say it's a warning bell."
6/ "The fact is that the latest Starlink modification, in addition to the communication channel, provides alternative navigation, which, unlike conventional GNSS, has very high interference immunity.
7/ "It also has an extremely narrow communication beam, which is difficult to detect and virtually impossible to jam with conventional electronic warfare systems.
8/ "Moreover, the cost of such a terminal is pennies compared to that of a heavy UAV, meaning the Americans can integrate it into almost all their weapons systems, including Tomahawks, JASSMs, and the new PrSMs.
9/ "In other words, all these long-range strike systems will be able to be controlled anywhere on the planet and achieve the same precision as FPV drones, literally through a window.
10/ "This isn't just an evolution in military affairs; it's a genuine revolution. And it's happening right here and now.
11/ "It's possible that such a small number of Iranian missiles [being launched] in a salvo is due to this innovation; Epstein's coalition is simply knocking out the launchers, no matter how camouflaged and dispersed they are.
12/ "A hyperspectral camera easily detects camouflage nets made from synthetic and cotton materials, and Starlink's fat data pipe allows for immediate attack on any detected launcher.
13/ "It would be good if our leadership understood the threat posed by such a dramatic increase in the effectiveness of the enemy's conventional weapons."
14/ Dmitry Konanykhin says that the development of LUCAS is "the results of laboratory work, conducted under ideal conditions by the US on the territory of the former Ukraine: a Starlink module on a Shahed-like drone."
15/ "And there's no doubt this module will be installed on any drone where aerodynamics allow.
16/ "In other words, by sending Russians, repurposed by the communists as "Ukrainians," to die, the US has gained free infantry that is vulnerable to losses (there are no people on the planet who will endure losses as much as even former Russians) and free bait for gentlemen…
17/ …who, since the Indian genocide, have become accustomed to luring tigers with the cry of a child tied by the leg. Racists—whether Anglo-Saxon or Kyiv Israeli—couldn't care less about the deaths of former Russians.
18/ "Conclusions have been drawn, the drones have been tested: the recent cruise missile flight to the Urals, when the mission was changed en route and the missiles were diverted to the Urals, bypassing our air defence zones, demonstrates the effectiveness of Starlink.
19/ "And, yes, forget the Soviet tales about nails scattered in orbit, destroying satellite constellations. That might have worked against hundreds, but not tens of thousands of satellites.
20/ "As Elon Musk snapped: "The Russians won't have enough anti-missiles to shoot down as many satellites as we launch."

Moreover, nuclear weapons can't destroy such a constellation of thousands.
21/ "You haven't forgotten that the Americans' main emphasis is on a surprise beheading strike?

That's called decapitation.
22/ "Yet our hyper-patriotic, cheerleading propaganda would rather trot out glassy-eyed, cookie-cutter talking heads sporting the Lviv Political Academy badges on their epaulets.
23/ "Well then.

Let's wish our engineers luck and pray for the success of Bureau 1440 [developer of the planned Russian Rassvet satellite constellation]." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/voenacher/90822
🔹 t.me/rusengineer/92…
🔹 t.me/grishkafilippo…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Mar 27
1/ Iran is seeking to establish a pay-to-sail regime in the Strait of Hormuz, under which it could earn over a quarter of a billion dollars a day. A senior member of the Iranian parliament says that vessels seeking to transit the strait will be charged $2 million each time. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Financial Times and Rudaw report that the Iranian government intends to fully monetise the strait by forcing passing ships to pay a fee for each passage. The "new regime" has been announced on state television by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian.
3/ Boroujerdi, a member of the parliament's National Security Committee, said that "For some ships which cross, for whatever reasons, Iran is charging them $2 million for the crossing ... In practice we have established a new regime governing the Strait of Hormuz after 47 years."
Read 13 tweets
Mar 27
1/ Claims by pro-Russians that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports went via Poland and the Baltic states have been met with scepticism by warblogger 'Fighterbomber'. If that's so, why has Russia not protested to those states?, he asks. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Fighterbomber', who has close links with the Russian Air Force, points out what Conan Doyle might have called the dog that didn't bark: the fact that the Russian government has said nothing about Ukrainian drones supposedly being routed over NATO territory: Image
3/ "Well, first of all, the airspace bordering Russia has been closed in countries like Poland and the Baltics for a long time.

Accusations from beauty bloggers that drones are being launched from the territory of these countries have been circulating for several years as well.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 26
1/ With American ground forces building up in the Gulf region, much attention has been paid to Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf. But what about the Iranian-held islands in the Strait of Hormuz? Here's why they might be a higher priority for possible landings. ⬇️ Image
2/ Seven Iranian-controlled islands punctuate the narrow strait between Iran and Oman: from west to east, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak and Hormuz itself. All are part of Iran's Hormozgan province.
3/ Two more Iranian islands, Bani Forur and Sirri, are located further west, in the Persian Gulf proper. They have strategic value as locations for reconnaissance, surveillance of shipping traffic, and possible interdiction. Both have an Iranian military presence.
Read 34 tweets
Mar 26
1/ The Ukraine war is a "dead end" which "could last for a hundred years", according to a gloomy Russian commentary. The transparency of the battlefield and its domination by drones has made large offensives "downright impossible" and is causing vast numbers of casualties. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' has written a long and detailed analysis of the situation at the front lines, following similarly gloomy outlooks by other warbloggers (see the thread below).
3/ "I have repeatedly pointed out that the front in the Ukrainian theatre of military operations is in a stalemate. This situation took shape last year, marked by the Battle of Pokrovsk.
Read 57 tweets
Mar 26
1/ An experiment by Russia's FSB has indicated that thousands of Russians are likely to be willing to carry out sabotage attacks on behalf of Ukraine or other foreign actors. In only three hours, the FSB recruited ten would-be saboteurs via Telegram. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russia has experienced regular sabotage attacks carried out by people who have been recruited by foreign agents over the Internet, usually via Telegram. They are sometimes tricked into thinking they are working for the Russian security forces.
3/ More often, however, saboteurs act purely for money. Russia has used the same methodology to recruit saboteurs in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly concluding that the war in Ukraine is stalemated and cannot be won by military means. Two prominent warbloggers have published gloomy commentaries explaining why. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Fighterbomber', a blogger with links to the Russian Air Force, comments:

"We still have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and then Donbas will be liberated.

In my opinion, we have three main options."
3/ "The first is to continue the creeping offensive with varying success, regardless of losses, which will be, to put it mildly, very heavy.

Judging by the current slow pace, that [needs] at least five years.
Read 25 tweets

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