In February, the Russian monthly net gains in Ukraine turned negative. Over the whole month, the Russians lost 37 km² of territory in Ukraine.
This is the first net loss since November of 2023, and the worst month for Russia in terms of territory since August of 2023.
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This is the first net loss since November of 2023, and the worst month for Russia in terms of territory since August of 2023.
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This is mainly due to the Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Front, which managed to push the Russians out of 213 km² of territory.
Most of these Ukrainian gains were made around Hulijaipole where Russia lost 192 km².
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Most of these Ukrainian gains were made around Hulijaipole where Russia lost 192 km².
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Ukrainian forces have reached the village of Ternuvate and past the village of Verbove, but it's unclear wether or not they have managed to establish solid control.
Situation remains dynamic. Much of the area Russia has lost is currently remains in the grey zone.
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Situation remains dynamic. Much of the area Russia has lost is currently remains in the grey zone.
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Hulijaipole direction has long been a problem for Ukraine, with Russians advancing faster here than on any other front.
It was likely chosen for the counterattack because Ukraine was worried about a further deterioration of the situation on the whole Southern Frontline.
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It was likely chosen for the counterattack because Ukraine was worried about a further deterioration of the situation on the whole Southern Frontline.
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It's highly likely that instead of an operational breakthrough, the Ukrainian goal in the direction was the re-establishment of defensive lines, disruption of Russian tempo and forcing Russia to commit further reinforcements to stop the Ukrainian counterattack.
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The Russians also suffered minor setbacks in other areas. However, these were were likely localized counterattacks more akin to regular frontline dynamics, likely spurred by the blocking of Starlink and disruption of Russian C2.
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With Ukrainian advance slowed down by the second half of the month and it's likely that Russia managed to at least partially adjust to this new reality.
They still continued their advance near Lyman and around Kostyantinivka capturing 176km² of territory in total.
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They still continued their advance near Lyman and around Kostyantinivka capturing 176km² of territory in total.
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Currently, it seems unlikely that the February frontline dynamics continue in March. The situation remains difficult in many parts of the front and Russia continues offensives.
Yet, February gave Ukraine much needed breathing room and raised morale at home and abroad.
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Yet, February gave Ukraine much needed breathing room and raised morale at home and abroad.
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It's likely that Russia will make further gains over the spring, maintaining efforts to capture the city of Kostyantinivka and continuing its advance towards the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Threat to Lyman, and the Siverskiy Donetsk crossings also remain.
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Threat to Lyman, and the Siverskiy Donetsk crossings also remain.
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Lastly, we must issue a correction.
Our assessment of the Russian advance in January has increased from 389 km² to 425 km². This is due to an earlier human error that left the last day of the assessment period out of the calculation.
We are sorry for this error.
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Our assessment of the Russian advance in January has increased from 389 km² to 425 km². This is due to an earlier human error that left the last day of the assessment period out of the calculation.
We are sorry for this error.
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Due to compression issues, here is a better quality version of the image above.
Due to compression issues, here is a better quality version of the image above.
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