In February, the Russian monthly net gains in Ukraine turned negative. Over the whole month, the Russians lost 37 km² of territory in Ukraine.

This is the first net loss since November of 2023, and the worst month for Russia in terms of territory since August of 2023.
1/ This is mainly due to the Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Front, which managed to push the Russians out of 213 km² of territory.

Most of these Ukrainian gains were made around Hulijaipole where Russia lost 192 km².

2/

Trump argues that US security requires “total control” of Greenland.

Read charitably, the concern is understandable, but the claim only holds if Greenland is plausibly vulnerable to Russian military operations.

A look at actual capabilities suggests otherwise. 🧵

1/10 From the United States point of view, Greenland matters for missile warning, North Atlantic control, and Arctic access.

However, the real question for Greenlands security is not intent, but whether Russia can operate there militarily.

2/

In August the Russians occupied 430 sqkm of Ukrainian territory. This is down from the 502 sqkm in July.

However, looking at the numbers alone does not give a full picture of the Russian operations. Over the second half of August the situation became increasingly dynamic. In the area of the Dnipropetrovsk border, the Ukrainians conducted a tactical counterattack, pushing Russia away from ~50sqkm of territory.

The area in orange was our assessment of Russian control on the 15th of August overlaid on current frontline.

We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas.

The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya.

1/ According to Russian sources the Ukrainians had rotated some units out of the salient earlier. It's possible that the Ukrainians were preparing for larger withdrawals.

Recent Russian operations may have started as an pre-emptive attempt to disrupt any Ukrainian withdrawal.

2/

Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread

Why does our @J_JHelin keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?

Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.

1/ What is light infantry?

At its core, light infantry are troops that:
Operate on foot in combat.
Have little to no support from vehicles.
Move organic support (mortars, MGs) on foot or trucks. Rely primarily on infantry weapons to fight.

Pictured: Finnish Jäger Company

2/

Sitrep - War in Gaza

With the news of ceasefire between IDF and Hamas, we're sharing some of our observations. We focus on military situation on the ground in Gaza based on open sources.
This is a short thread about the situation on the ground during the past month. /1 Background in short:
After Oct 7th attack by Hamas, highest casualty terror attack on Israels soil, IDF conscripted a record amount of troops from it's reserve: ~360 000 pax, whom were deployed to directions of Gaza, Blue Line, Golan Heights and West Bank. 2/