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Ed Finley–Richardson

@ed_fin

Mar 6 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

Scrolly

My proposal for re-establishing US deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz.

1. Iran’s tanker fleet is below, including 38 VLCCs which they depend on for their crude oil exports.

Issue an ultimatum to Iran: Every time you attack a merchant vessel, we torpedo one of your vessels.

2. They will attack a vessel anyway, because they won’t believe you’ll go through with it.

Immediately destroy one of their VLCCs.
Get nice footage.
Repeat.

After the first 5 VLCCs, they will begin to realize that they are going to run out of tankers to ship their oil.

3. After this, Iran will become increasingly dependent on 3rd parties to ship their oil.

US Treasury can exert pressure on these 3rd parties, and <cough> dissuade them from coming to the rescue.

If they don’t listen, seize a couple of vessels.
They’ll stop ballasting in.

4. Fight fire with fire. Make it hurt Iran more to attack commercial vessels than it hurts the global community which depends on ME exports.

This is going to become EVERYONE’S problem very quickly, if you don’t have the balls to show them who’s boss.

5. Will oil spike? Spoiler alert: it is going to spike no matter what, at this point!

Rip off the band-aid.

Afraid Iran will attack Middle Eastern oil infrastructure?

Guess what: they’re gonna do it anyway!
Ras Tanura attacked twice!
Kuwait and Iraq are shutting in fields!

6. Don’t be a pussy, Donnie. Bomb the tankers.
Their AIS is on, they’re near Kharg.

Those 1996 should be scrapped anyway.
You’re doing them a favor.

/rant over

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Ed Finley–Richardson

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Let's connect some dots:🧵

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Ed Finley–Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 25, 2024

CRUDE TANKER SUPPLY (updated)
ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵

VLCC = Very Large Crude Carrier 200,000+ dwt

Suezmax 120,000-199,999 dwt

Aframax 78,000-119,999 dwt

Panamax 60,000-77,999 dwt

$DHT $FRO $ECO $INSW $NAT
$SFL $TNK $TNP $NMM $EURN