1/ Iran's Kharg Island is reportedly under consideration as a target for capture by the Trump Administration. However, declassified US government documents show that the same thing was considered in 1979 but was rejected because it was too difficult and risky. ⬇️
2/ President Jimmy Carter and his National Security Council met in the afternoon of November 6, 1979 to discuss the ongoing Iranian hostage crisis. The discussion involved options for putting pressure on the Khomenei regime, including targeting Kharg Island.
3/ Kharg Island lies 25 km (16 miles) off the coast of Iran at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. It was built up as a deep water oil terminal in the 1960s, providing an ideal oil loading point for supertankers. 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through the island.
4/ The Carter National Security Council discussed the possibility of the US seizing or blockading the island as a bargaining chip to use in demanding the release of the 52 US hostages being held by Iranian revolutionaries in the 1979-1980 Iranian hostage crisis.
5/ In the end, the Carter Administration decided against seizing Kharg. It had significant defences, it was so close to the mainland that it would be vulnerable to attack from the land, and blockading or destroying it would cause a global oil crisis.
6/ According to the official minute of the NSC meeting, "General [David C.] Jones noted that for a retaliatory attack Kharg Island was probably the most critical facility in Iran. Originally they thought it would require very little to seize the island."
7/ "Later today however they had discovered that there were about 250 soldiers, another 250 air defense personnel, and several hundred (up to 500) military personnel involved in a hovercraft program there.
8/ "Our tactics could be to either seize the island or to impose a blockade. We cannot effectively block the entire Persian Gulf since it is impossible to discriminate between ships and their destinations.
9/ "Moreover, Kharg Island is not so easy to blockade; it is very close to the coast and there are many aircraft."
(It should be noted that at this time Iran didn't have the missiles, drones and MLRS that it possesses today.)
10/ Secretary of Defense Harold Brown "noted that Kharg Island provided a bargaining lever. We could show the Iranians that if they take our oil we can block theirs. This is a very dangerous process, however. He wondered whether it would not shut off other oil in the Gulf...
11/ Zbigniew Brzezinski, the National Security Advisor, "said the reaction would depend on circumstances. If we did something like this right now, it would be extremely bad and the reaction around the world would be extremely critical."
12/ "However, later if killings occur they might possibly consider it alright particularly if they saw Iran disintegrating.
The President wondered about an aerial attack on the island.
Secretary Brown said that would be more permanent since it would destroy the installation.
13/ "Dr. Brzezinski noted that seizing the island provided a bargaining lever. We would have land and people in our own custody which permits us to bargain.
14/ "Stan Turner [Director of the CIA] noted that you could not simply count the piers and put the island out of operation for quite a while."
"[White House Chief of Staff] Hamilton Jordan wondered whether Kharg Island was important to Khomeini and his group.
15/ Secretary Brown said that it might not be in the first instance but in fact a whole livelihood and economy depended on the oil exports from Kharg Island.
The President noted that with regard to closing off the oil from Kharg Island we could stand it.
16/ He was not sure, however, that the French, British, Japanese, and others could stand it especially if other oil producing nations closed down their own operations as a sign of sympathy. ...
17/ "Stan Turner wondered about the possibility of simply mining the waters around Kharg Island.
Dr. Brzezinski said the results of that would be to simply punish our friends. He thought that there was more merit in taking the little islands inside Gulf.
18/ "The President said they would probably simply say take them and not worry about it.
Dr. Brzezinski said he thought it would bother them. They have a strong territorial instinct. Going after Kharg Island would create a worldwide oil crisis." /end
1/ Why is Russia so vulnerable to Ukraine's mid-range drone attacks? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says that it's due to an ongoing and unresolved series of Russian failures in developing new interceptor drones and anti-drone capabilities. ⬇️
The balance of the war has shifted significantly in the enemy's favour, not because of any problems on our part at the front—the same positional dragging continues there, essentially."
3/ "Problems have arisen in the rear—due to the exponential increase in the number and capabilities of deep strikes and middle strikes, as well as the focused pressure on our logistics, especially fuel and energy infrastructure.
1/ Russia faces "tectonic events" in the near future due to Ukraine's seizure of the initiative in the war, which presages an "impending disaster", according to a gloomy commentary by Russian journalist and warblogger Maxim Kalashnikov. ⬇️
2/ Kalashnikov draws attention to the convergence of several unfavourable trends for Russia – economic, military and industrial – which he says are seriously threatening a Russian war effort that is faltering and weakened by chronic corruption, inertia, and backward-thinking.
3/ He writes:
"We are on the eve of a new upheaval. Anyone who studied dialectical and historical materialism ... knows that the number of changes always leads to a qualitative leap. Or a collapse.
War in early summer 2026 is the threshold of the latter. What do we have?"
1/ The explosion in Moscow this morning killed Colonel Damir Davydov, head of the procurement department of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, according to VChK-OGPU. ⬇️
"The BMW X3 in which Damir Davydov, head of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate [GRAU] of the Russian Ministry of Defence, was blown up today belongs to Davydov himself. He purchased the used car in 2024 from a businessman in the Vladimir region.
3/ "More than 15 years ago, Davydov headed the Central Testing Technical Bureau at the 51st Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, located in the Vladimir region.
1/ Russian journalist and blogger Anastasia Kashevarova is baffled and upset by Russia's apparent helplessness in the face of Ukraine's drone campaign. "They're fighting us, and we're wanking our limp dicks," she complains. "Guys, what are you doing?" ⬇️
"The enemy is loading UAVs with all sorts of destructive elements. The enemy doesn't care what they use to kill you, as long as it kills you. The enemy is hitting everything that moves on the roads."
3/ "The enemy doesn't give a damn about the elderly, children, women, or Ukrainian politics—the more Russians die, the better.
The enemy is begging other countries for weapons. The enemy is ready to crawl on their knees just to be given weapons to kill Russians.
1/ The Russian Navy is being condemned as "unteachable" by Russian warbloggers following a Ukrainian attack on an ammunition depot, which is said to have destroyed 5,000 tons of ammunition. They say that the Navy has learned nothing from the war. ⬇️
2/ High-resolution satellite images from before the strike show massive amounts of ammunition being stored in the open air at the 15th Arsenal of the Russian Navy in Petergof, Leningrad region. This Soviet-style practice has led to repeated disasters at Russian Army depots.
3/ As 'Alex Parker Returns' comments, "The ammunition was stored outdoors, so triggering a detonation using drones was no problem. Pypa [Putin], here are the results."
1/ Igor 'Strekov' Girkin must die, says another Russian warblogger. His missives of doom are not universally welcomed by Russia's 'angry patriots', who don't always appreciate the ideological commitments which underlie his criticisms of the Russian war strategy. ⬇️
2/ Girkin has repeatedly issued warnings about Russia's failing strategy in Ukraine, and the consequences thereof, along with criticisms of the Russian leadership. He is currently in prison for his criticisms, but this doesn't seem to have deterred him.