1/ Iran's Kharg Island is reportedly under consideration as a target for capture by the Trump Administration. However, declassified US government documents show that the same thing was considered in 1979 but was rejected because it was too difficult and risky. ⬇️
2/ President Jimmy Carter and his National Security Council met in the afternoon of November 6, 1979 to discuss the ongoing Iranian hostage crisis. The discussion involved options for putting pressure on the Khomenei regime, including targeting Kharg Island.
3/ Kharg Island lies 25 km (16 miles) off the coast of Iran at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. It was built up as a deep water oil terminal in the 1960s, providing an ideal oil loading point for supertankers. 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through the island.
4/ The Carter National Security Council discussed the possibility of the US seizing or blockading the island as a bargaining chip to use in demanding the release of the 52 US hostages being held by Iranian revolutionaries in the 1979-1980 Iranian hostage crisis.
5/ In the end, the Carter Administration decided against seizing Kharg. It had significant defences, it was so close to the mainland that it would be vulnerable to attack from the land, and blockading or destroying it would cause a global oil crisis.
6/ According to the official minute of the NSC meeting, "General [David C.] Jones noted that for a retaliatory attack Kharg Island was probably the most critical facility in Iran. Originally they thought it would require very little to seize the island."
7/ "Later today however they had discovered that there were about 250 soldiers, another 250 air defense personnel, and several hundred (up to 500) military personnel involved in a hovercraft program there.
8/ "Our tactics could be to either seize the island or to impose a blockade. We cannot effectively block the entire Persian Gulf since it is impossible to discriminate between ships and their destinations.
9/ "Moreover, Kharg Island is not so easy to blockade; it is very close to the coast and there are many aircraft."
(It should be noted that at this time Iran didn't have the missiles, drones and MLRS that it possesses today.)
10/ Secretary of Defense Harold Brown "noted that Kharg Island provided a bargaining lever. We could show the Iranians that if they take our oil we can block theirs. This is a very dangerous process, however. He wondered whether it would not shut off other oil in the Gulf...
11/ Zbigniew Brzezinski, the National Security Advisor, "said the reaction would depend on circumstances. If we did something like this right now, it would be extremely bad and the reaction around the world would be extremely critical."
12/ "However, later if killings occur they might possibly consider it alright particularly if they saw Iran disintegrating.
The President wondered about an aerial attack on the island.
Secretary Brown said that would be more permanent since it would destroy the installation.
13/ "Dr. Brzezinski noted that seizing the island provided a bargaining lever. We would have land and people in our own custody which permits us to bargain.
14/ "Stan Turner [Director of the CIA] noted that you could not simply count the piers and put the island out of operation for quite a while."
"[White House Chief of Staff] Hamilton Jordan wondered whether Kharg Island was important to Khomeini and his group.
15/ Secretary Brown said that it might not be in the first instance but in fact a whole livelihood and economy depended on the oil exports from Kharg Island.
The President noted that with regard to closing off the oil from Kharg Island we could stand it.
16/ He was not sure, however, that the French, British, Japanese, and others could stand it especially if other oil producing nations closed down their own operations as a sign of sympathy. ...
17/ "Stan Turner wondered about the possibility of simply mining the waters around Kharg Island.
Dr. Brzezinski said the results of that would be to simply punish our friends. He thought that there was more merit in taking the little islands inside Gulf.
18/ "The President said they would probably simply say take them and not worry about it.
Dr. Brzezinski said he thought it would bother them. They have a strong territorial instinct. Going after Kharg Island would create a worldwide oil crisis." /end
1/ A Russian general has been arrested by a military court after being accused of 'selling' nearly 90 soldiers to a mercenary leader who is accused of extortion, kidnapping, arms trafficking, torture, and murder. Lt Gen Alexander Dembitsky denies the accusations. ⬇️
2/ The case involves Alexey Marushchenko, the head of the 'Yastreb' private military company, which fought in Ukraine. Yastreb's recruiters are said to have promised those who wished to enlish for military service that they would fight with Yastreb, rather than the regular army.
3/ The prospective contract soldiers were required to pay up front for this privilege. However, Russian criminal investigators found that Yastreb pocketed the recruits' money and they were sent straight to regular military units without any opportunity to serve with Yastreb.
1/ Soaring fuel prices in Russia are providing an unparalleled opportunity to make a quick profit through price gouging, artificial scarcity, and corruption. A Russian warblogger highlights how gas station owners and operators are exploiting the crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russian 'Kovpak's Detachment' Telegram channel writes:
"In the case of absolutely any shortage, tension in society is created by those who want to make money on it."
3/ "In the case of fuel – gas station owners and various scum, who, with the tacit permission (obviously, not for free) of the gas station management, hang around them.
1/ Russia's deal with India to supply fuel to alleviate the current shortages involves the Indians selling fuel refined from discounted Russian oil back to Russia at full market prices. As warblogger Yuri Baranchik points out, this is extraordinarily bad value for Russia. ⬇️
2/ Baranchik grumbles:
"Well, gentlemen, it's happened: we're witnessing the birth of a new economic reality, which can safely be called "a cycle of enrichment for the Indian oil refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens."
3/ "Look at the elegant business model that's emerging. We're pumping crude oil to India. A lot, a record amount, sometimes as much as 2.7 million barrels per day. Naturally, we're pumping it at that legendary discount that's become the talk of the town.
1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️
2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:
3/ "It's difficult to comment seriously on rumours, but discussions regarding the likelihood of a second mobilisation have long since transcended the realm of speculation.
1/ Russian soldiers are reported to be refusing en masse to attack across the border west of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian army units are said to have run out of fuel amidst the ongoing fuel crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russians are currently trying to link up two pockets on the border in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, to the east and west of the Russian village of Sereda, by attacking to the south. However, Ukrainian drones are reportedly making this unbearably bloody.
3/ 'Northern Channel' reports:
"There's a forest on the approach to Ternova, nicknamed "the Magic Forest"... As you can tell from the introduction, there's nothing good there."
1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:
3/ "If Russia really wanted to defeat Europe or completely disarm and destroy its military industry, Moscow would be able to do so relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success.