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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 9 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1/10 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+8, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,474: The international security architecture continues to experience severe stress. High-intensity multi-domain operations across the Middle East (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar/True Promise IV) and Eastern Europe are beginning to strategically converge.
#IranWar2026 #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #USIranWar #UkraineRussiaWar
2/10 🇮🇷 Strategic Pivot: Iran's Assembly of Experts has officially named 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. This cements IRGC hardline control and marks the first hereditary transfer of supreme power since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. U.S. President Trump immediately condemned the succession, stating the new leader will not "last long" without U.S. approval.

x.com/MonitorX99800/…
3/10 🇺🇸 Operation Epic Fury: CENTCOM's aerospace campaign remains relentless. U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000-lb penetrator munitions specifically targeting deeply buried IRGC ballistic missile launchers. Concurrently, the U.S. military confirmed a 7th American service member died from injuries sustained during an earlier March 1 attack in Saudi Arabia.

x.com/johnkonrad/sta…
4/10 🇮🇱 Operation Lion's Roar: The IDF executed a paradigm-shifting decapitation strike in Lebanon. Israeli munitions hit a suite in the Ramada Hotel located in Beirut's Raouche district—a previously untouched, central commercial area—killing at least four. The confirmed targets were reportedly senior IRGC Quds Force Lebanon Corps commanders.

x.com/JimVandeHei/st…
5/10 🇮🇷 Operation True Promise IV: Tehran's retaliatory framework continues to escalate its focus on Gulf economic and civilian lifelines. An Iranian drone struck a vital water desalination plant in Bahrain. This serves as a coercive signal to U.S. partner nations that host CENTCOM assets: their existential infrastructure is at risk.

x.com/pati_marins64/…
6/10 🇷🇺🤝🇮🇷 The Intelligence Axis: The most concerning geopolitical development of the week. U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that Russia is actively supplying Tehran with high-quality satellite imagery and targeting data on U.S. warships and aircraft operating in the Middle East. The two theaters are now actively linked.
7/10 🇳🇴 Extra-Regional Spillover: At approximately 1:00 AM local time, an explosion targeted the consular section of the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway. Norwegian authorities are investigating the blast as a potential terror attack directly linked to the ongoing Middle East security crisis.
8/10 🇺🇦 Ukrainian TVD (Air): Russia is intensifying a theater-wide battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Ukraine's railway logistics. Overnight, a Russian Lancet drone struck a civilian passenger train carrying 200 people in the Sumy Oblast. Remarkably, no injuries were reported, but it highlights a strategy of logistical paralysis.
9/10 🇺🇦 Ukrainian TVD (Ground): In the Donbas, the Russian Operational Group of Forces (OSV) Tsentr (Center) maintains heavy pressure, now controlling roughly 60% of Hryshyne and advancing on Shevchenko. Conversely, in the south, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully halted a concentrated Russian advance aimed at Zaporizhzhia.
10/10 The Macro Picture: The weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz and active strikes on Gulf energy nodes have pushed global crude oil prices above the $100 a barrel threshold for the first time since 2022. Resource competition between U.S. interceptor stockpiles in the Gulf and Ukraine's defensive needs will dictate the operational tempo in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for more in-depth operational analysis on the operational crossover between the Middle East and Eastern European theaters.

x.com/DavidInglesTV/…

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 8
1/ 🌍 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+7, Russo-Ukraine War D+1,473: The global security architecture is fracturing simultaneously across two primary theaters of war. The US-Israeli Coalition continues its air campaign (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar), while it faces an asymmetric Iranian response (True Promise IV), and the Russo-Ukrainian War sees major multi-domain innovations. A thread 🧵
#IranWar #IranIsraelWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4
2/ 🇮🇷🇦🇪 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: Iran's "True Promise IV" reached a critical inflection point today. An Iranian OWA drone penetrated UAE air defenses, striking Dubai Intl Airport (DXB) near Concourse A. Operations were temporarily suspended, which paralyzed Israeli repatriation airlifts. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the Consulate in Erbil, Iraq, came under drone and rocket attack by Iranian forces.

x.com/sentdefender/s…
3/ 🇮🇷 Iranian Command Rupture: Paradoxically, Iranian President Pezeshkian issued a televised "apology" and conditional ceasefire to Gulf states today. In contrast, the IRGC issued a statement calling President Pezeshkian's message a “mistake”, encouraging Pezeshkian's comments to be ignored. The juxtaposition of this diplomatic off-ramp with the DXB strike strongly indicates the Provisional Leadership Council has lost operational control of forward IRGC launch units.

x.com/DrEliDavid/sta…
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 7
1/7 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+6 / Russo-Ukraine War D+ 1,472: We are observing synchronized, high-intensity multi-domain combat operations across two distinct theaters—the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Here is a brief OSINT and strategic rollup of the last 24 hours. 🧵👇 #IranIsraelUSWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromiseIV
2/7 🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 Operations Epic Fury & Lion's Roar: The joint US-Israeli campaign has entered its 7th day. Allied forces have struck a combined 4,500+ targets (over 2,000 US strikes and 2,500 Israeli strikes), establishing near-total air superiority. March 6 kinetic strikes heavily degraded regime infrastructure in Tehran, completely destroying the Diplomatic Police Center and the Azadi Sports Complex.

x.com/shashj/status/…
3/7 🇮🇷 Operation True Promise IV: Iran continues its massive, multi-axis retaliation across the Persian Gulf and the Levant, utilizing ballistic missiles and one-way attack (OWA) drones. The sheer volume of Shahed-class munitions continues to strain regional integrated air defense systems (IADS), highlighting the rapid maturation of aerospace saturation tactics.

x.com/business/statu…
Read 7 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 6
1/ Iran War Update, D+5: Day 6 of the war with Iran has seen continued regional escalation as the US/Israeli joint offensives-Operations Epic Fury & Lion’s Roar- continue to hammer Iranian defenses and critical infrastructure as the Iranians respond with retaliatory strikes throughout the Middle East as part of Operation True Promise IV.
2/ Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) & Lion’s Roar: Israel: CENTCOM reports the first 100 hours decimated the IRGC’s command structure. The joint operation is heavily targeting Iranian missile depots (U.S.) as the Israeli Air Force continues to target and dismantle Iranian military assets and facilities.

3/ Operation True Promise IV: Tehran continues to conduct ballistic missile and drone swarm attacks against Israel, U.S. bases, and the Gulf states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain). Although coalition air defenses maintain high interception rates, the volume of projectiles continues to stress coalition air defense systems.

Read 6 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 3
1/ Daily Tactical Update, Iran War 2026, D+4: No map update today, but will bring you a deep dive soon on tactical and operational developments throughout the region. Concern continues to grow among U.S. lawmakers about the trajectory of the war. Strategic confusion at this critical juncture has the potential to be catastrophic to U.S.-Israeli war aims.
2/ There is a real possibility of the war spiraling out of control if strategic ambiguity persists within the Trump administration.

3/ As the war continues, the Iranians will be able to identify and exploit U.S. and allied defense vulnerabilities, escalating the cost for the United States and placing intense domestic pressure on the Trump administration for a diplomatic off-ramp.

Read 5 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 3
1/ Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+3: Today's brief update focuses on the major events that transpired in the Persian Gulf and the expansion of Iran's Operation True Promise IV.

The Iranian Armed Forces and the remnants of the IRGC continue to expand the scope and scale of Operation True Promise IV. This massive, decentralized retaliatory campaign has fundamentally shifted the conflict from a localized punitive engagement to a macro-regional theater war with global economic implications.

Despite the catastrophic loss of Supreme Leader Khamenei and the near-total eradication of the regime's top-tier political-military leadership, Iran's strategic missile forces continue to demonstrate a highly resilient, pre-programmed, and decentralized decision-making structure.

This operational continuity in the face of decapitation highlights a critical evolution in Iranian military doctrine, deliberately engineered to ensure that retaliation is not dependent on a functioning central command.
#Iran #TruePromise #EpicFury #LionsRoarImage
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2/ The targeting matrix for True Promise IV purposefully and aggressively expanded well beyond Israeli territory to encompass critical military, logistical, and economic infrastructure across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the broader Mediterranean.

The economic warfare component of Iran's strategy immediately bore fruit; global financial markets were thrown into a state of extreme high-alert volatility.

The independent, somewhat isolated operation of the Iranian armed forces from civilian government control—as openly admitted by Iran's Foreign Minister—indicates that True Promise IV is being executed by regional IRGC commanders strictly adhering to pre-established contingency protocols.

The campaign leverages a mathematically calculated saturation strategy in which, despite a high interception rate by allied air defenses, the sheer volume of projectiles guarantees that a percentage will penetrate, causing strategic infrastructure degradation and global economic panic.
#UAE #Kuwait #SaudiArab #Qatar #BahrainImage
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3/ The fundamental strategic premise underpinning Operations Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar—that the application of overwhelming kinetic force, massive infrastructural destruction, and absolute leadership decapitation will inevitably yield swift political submission, behavioral modification, or total regime collapse—is vigorously contested by contemporary operations research and the empirical history of coercion theory.

This divergence between tactical military success and strategic political failure is expertly articulated by Dr. Robert A. Pape, a Professor of Political Science and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago.
x.com/AdamJSchwarz/s…
Read 11 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 2
1/ Daily Tactical Update: Today's update is another brief look at the development of Operations Epic Fury, Lion's Roar, and True Promise IV. The rapid, unprecedented escalation of Operation Epic Fury is already the subject of rigorous analysis by analysts, strategists, and operations researchers. Although still only within the initial 48 hours of the onset of hostilities, the current course of operations reveals a stark, alarming divergence between the tactical military successes celebrated by the allied coalition and the campaign's long-term strategic geopolitical viability.

Over the next two weeks, expect extreme volatility and reactive escalations across all four theaters. In the Middle East, Iran’s surviving Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership will likely decentralize command, pressuring its proxy network—specifically Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen—to launch sustained, asymmetric swarm attacks against U.S. and Israeli assets and commercial shipping. #IranWar #Iran #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4Image
2/ Operation Epic Fury, D+1: By 0930 EST 01 MAR, joint operations had reached a staggering operational tempo. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) declared the successful attainment of total air superiority over Iranian airspace, a monumental logistical and tactical achievement that permitted allied aircraft to operate directly above high-value targets in Tehran and beyond without prohibitive interference from Iranian integrated air defense systems (IADS).

This air superiority was likely facilitated by sophisticated, concurrent offensive cyber operations. Operational models suggest that cyber-effects were brought to bear in the initial 48 hours to blind Iranian early-warning radars, disrupt automated launch sequences, and sever the digital connective tissue of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command networks, thereby enabling the kinetic strikes to penetrate unmolested. #EpicFury #IsraeliAirForceImage
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3/ Operation True Promise IV: Despite the catastrophic loss of its Supreme Leader and the decimation of its centralized C2 nodes, the Iranian military and the IRGC Aerospace Force demonstrated a remarkably resilient, albeit degrading, decentralized operational capacity. Executing a pre-planned retaliatory campaign designated "Operation True Promise IV," Iran launched a massive, multi-vector saturation attack encompassing approximately 420 ballistic missiles and loitering munitions (drone swarms) across nine separate nations and maritime domains.

This response highlights the inherent survivability of Iran's deeply buried missile silos and the autonomy granted to localized IRGC commanders in the event of a communications severance with Tehran. The Iranian targeting calculus rapidly evolved from counterforce strikes aimed purely at military installations to expansive counter-value strikes designed to inflict maximum psychological and economic damage upon U.S. allies. #TruePromise4 #uaeattack #IranWar #IranImage
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Read 6 tweets

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