🧵Will get lost in geo-political turmoil & its domestic impacts, but the Govt's cohesion plan is imo well pithced & quite bold avoiding usual 'kumbaya' and placing more emphasis on responsibilities/ expectations necessary for a cohesive society than is normal in this type of work
The plan does a good job in identifying the cocktail of factors that have put strain on cohesion - extremism, levels of immigration, foreign actors, but also economic and technological change from deindustrialisation to living/working more online. On top of years of permacrisis
Ditto sections on resetting the social contract i think quite squarely where most of the public are - tolerance/openness to different views and cultures but also some fundamental expectations about integrating into our shared culture, respect for our traditions in values.
The plan recognises lots of people feel they can't speak freely about changes they are seeing in their local communities - our research finds half the public don't feel free to speak about issues like immigration, which in turn often leads to resentment/frustration.
The plan directly ties social cohesion back to pride in place. Again across our research we find one of the biggest drivers of social disconnection and alienation is a sense that people's communities/high streets/parks have been left to decline, without solving that you can't improve cohesion or connection - and there's both real money and levers in the document to address that.
There's also good recognition that because online will often be the easy default you're govt is going to have to be more deliberate about bringing people together - whether through school linking, proper oversight of home education and more support for cultural events/community venues.
And part of the challenging is we been rubbish at teaching our values, we have nothing (in England) like French or American civics teaching, and our sense of national identity is poorer for it.
There's good recognition that integration (using some of our research) is a key expectation of the public and that its a two way street - and that there are real risks of social silos and parallel levels unless there is deliberate government action.
Again I think this section is quite bold/important for a government document, and is where most of the public are: there is space for and should be respect for religious pluralism - but that doesn't mean tolerating attacks on fundamental British values or infringing on hard won rights of others such as gender equality.
The document directly links levels of immigration that have been too high with problems of social cohesion and places greater expectations on integration - when we've polled people we've found the ability to use/understand english is people's top integration expectation
The document focuses on challenging racial/religious discrimination with a particular focus on rising anti-semitism and anti-muslim hostility. Our research at the end of last year found nearly half of Britons think the UK is unsafe for Jewish people and nearly 4 in 10 for Muslims.
On the definition of anti-muslim hostility, which we asked about a definition of islamophobia (a different definition focused more on the religion) Britons were largely indifferent, but on a seperate question about free speech 46% were concerned it would shut down legitimate debate 25% were not.
Much of public reception will depend on implementation - showing how the definition works to protect individuals from hate which most Brits would support, rather than seeming to prevent legitimate criticism of religion or specific practices.
The document concludes with an important section on extremism and the responsibilities of government to keep people safe and rights protected from extreme right wing or islamist extremism. Again the focus is most strong on education, which given some of the stuff from university campuses recently again is clearly a public priority.
It's good that there will be a task force and updates to the plan. Obviously lots depends on implementation and if this is just words without action its meaningless and work to tackle genuine hate will have to avoid becoming further restrictions on speech/expression, something those on right and left increasingly worry about.
But a focus on resilience, shared expectations, place and tackling hate/extremism is most likely to command public support.F ull plan here gov.uk/government/pub…
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🧵Think a Tory message of 'we don't want centrists' is a real risk and a imo a misanalysis of choices. The evidence shows parties rarely succeed when they've told certain groups of voters they don't want them and the danger is the Tories are now doing that in both directions.
The Tories since the election are only being kept at 20% by voters that they have won back from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, it is a high risk strategy to tell these voters you're not interested in them.
But here is where I think misanalysis is - the debate assumes party lurching one way or the other on immigration. But median voter puts themselves between Reform & Tories on borders: suggesting there little path for a centre-right party without control first immigration message
🧵Combination of what's happened to polls in Denmark and Canada (again), along with our UK polling and focus groups over the past few weeks has made me revise upward what I think likelihood and impact of a Trump effect on UK electoral politics could be.
Firstly fair to say Trump has been close to the top of every focus group we've run in the New Year "“I feel he’s pushing us towards world war three" or [asked what the biggest threat to the UK was] "“I think Trump, full stop.”. People are genuinely worried/discombobulated/scared
We also know Trump is unpopular in the UK -40 net approval rating and don't like his domestic or foreign policy, but more than that it's the sense he as countless people have said versions. of in groups "makes me worried for the world my kids will grow up in"
More i think about it, more I think treating a potential break of the pledge not to raise income tax/NI/VAT as 'just another unpopular decision' is a big mistake. The (then) 2 main parties fought a whole election framed by their promises not to do it & implication for political trust of breaking it maybe deep.
This isn't a sin of omission, the promise was explicit. You can argue the promise was misguided (and imo there was always room for Labour to pledge to reverse the Hunt NI cuts and still won with a hefty majority and more room for manoeuvre.) But it was the promise.
The only way to break it without a severe trust penalty is to convince people the situation has changed so dramatically it has to - the Sunak NI rise of 2022 was swallowed because of Covid.
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.
For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more “soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting.
With Labour's struggling in Caerphilly, we conducted a focus group to try and understand why voters were moving away from Labour in a traditionally rock solid seat. By far the biggest driver, typified by the winter fuel allowance decision was a sense the party had lost its way.
To these voters the first year seemed little different to what had come before with the Tories - both in terms of policy and scandal. There was a sense of disappointment that the change people thought they were voting for last July hadn't materialised.
Again that sense that Labour were somehow not for 'working people' anymore and were making the cost of living crisis worse was a driver of frustration for the group - and the sense that the wealthiest were benefiting from it.
A focus group of women in Pontefract last week depressingly captured how the cost of living was driving the mood of miserable Britain. I’ve talked before how it saps the joy out of life, but it’s more than that having to pull your kid out of karate classes is genuinely miserable
I think what people miss is the extent to which is creates anxiety everywhere, no one on moderate incomes feels safe, one bad bill can tip people used to being about fine if not comfortable into a situation where they’re using a food bank.
And while cost of living is treated like a 2022-2024 political issue the reality is most people are still going into supermarkets and being shocked by how much things cost.