Thread by @clement_molin

After 10 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, the economical situation is worsening

Here is a new MAP UPDATE with the military situation, the economical situation, some analysis and some prospects :

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️

The war has been going on for now more than 10 days and the repercussion are felt worldwide.

Iran held despite constant strikes which obliterated its navy and airforce and still continues to launch important drone and missile strikes across the region.

The death of Ayatollah Khamenei which was quickly replaced within ten days by his son didn't have the expected results.

The Iranian president and part of the leadership is still alive, while the IRCG individuals now understood that their bases are not safe.

This map made by a professional (better than me for sure) (link ) shows a lot of interesting things (in french however).

From oil to ethnic minorities in Iran, we can also see the military bases, impacts of missiles as well as the closed airspaces. linkedin.com/posts/nato-tar…

I translated the map in english with AI, it is not bad for a better understanding of the situation.

Before taking a look to the military situation, lets analyse the economic deflagration that is coming :

The closure by Iran of the Hormuz strait impacts the whole world. Thousands ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf, while multiple others are waiting on the Arabian and Oman Sea. At the same time, the regional airspace closure is also impacting the Europe-Asia air road.

To give pespective, the Oman strait counts for 30% of the world oil trade and 20% of the gas trade.

The biggest impact is not for Europe (20%), but for Asia, especially China, Japan and India which will be widely impacted as long as the strait remains closed.

The impact is also for the Persian Gulf states. more than 75% of the wheat used in most of these countries is coming from the Homuz strait. It is 100% for Kuwait, Qatar or Bahrain.

Most of these countries oil and gas is exported through the currently closed strait so is their GDP.

Furthermore, in addition to no longer being able to export their resources, the Gulf countries will suffer a historic economic, tourism, and financial blow.

Let's also not forget the issue of water; the seawater desalination plants shown on the map are highly vulnerable.

The first strikes on water desalination plants have caused a stir in countries in the region, which fear the possibility of a large-scale shortage.

The UAE retaliated for the first time against a desalinisation plant in Iran, the opposite would be worrying for the country...

People also often forget the exportations of fertilizers that will be slower for some weeks or month at the exact moment they are the most needed for the world's agriculture.

Everyday with the strait closed is billions of losses.

The gas and oil prices are going up, giving some air to Russia, which will be able to sell its ressources at higher price and thus, finance its war against Ukraine.

Most of the Middle East countries will on the other hand suffer from important economical consequences.

The military situation :

Since the war started, Israel and the US launched more than 4 500 airstrikes across the country.

This is the same map as last time, but the strike dynamics are same. Main targets of these last 2 days :

-Tehran
-Ispahan
-Bandar Abbas
-Shiraz
...

Following major Israeli strikes on Tehran's oil depots, plunging the city into darkness and pollution, initial tensions appear to have emerged between the US and Israel.

Washington does not understand the purpose of this bombing, which risks strengthening support for the regime.

The numerous satellite images reaching us show the impressive precision of the Israeli-American strikes in Iran. All known targets are being hit with great accuracy.

The challenge now is to find the scattered leadership and the remnants of the missile program that hasn't disappeared and probably won't.

For more details, the work done by @SoarAtlas is very interesting. They are compilling tens of georeferenced of satellite images showing US-Israeli airstrikes resuslts in Iran.

https://x.com/SoarAtlas/status/2030980420964422082?s=20

If you need a map with all the geolocated videos and events, you should definitely check @EpicFuryMap for their very interesting map.

I used their work to map Iranian military bases and some of the airstrikes.

What is the American strategy ?

It seems now more and more likely that there is no plan B. Only 50 000 american soldiers are deployed in the Middle East and they will probably not intervene in Iran...

How is the Iranian response ongoing?

The Iranian response continues with a certain consistency. Missiles and drones continue to target and strike the region. Drones are easier to shoot down, and Iran is firing fewer missiles. Gulf countries are the primary targets of this campaign. (Source : @IbrahimJalalYE)

The situation in Lebanon is particularly worrying. The majority of strikes hitting Israel come from Hezbollah, and the war between Israel and Hezbollah has already caused nearly 400 civilian deaths in Lebanon.

Iran remains the country with the biggest civilian casualties.

What about the Naval response?

The Gerard R. Ford Strike Group is waiting for additional escort in the northern Red Sea. It will later head south. For now, the Houthis didn't start any attack but it may soon happen.

The Lincoln CSG is still operating under large destroyer cover in the Arabian Sea.

The French 🇫🇷 aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle arrived from Sweden well before its escort, where it joined ships from allied countries and at least one French frigate.

The French president, who was in Cyprus today, visited the aircraft carrier to show his support for the French navy. In total, 19 of the French Navy's 23 major surface ships are out of port, including a dozen in the region or en route.

The CSG will initially conduct missions in the eastern Mediterranean and will then move to the Strait of Hormuz to open a maritime route, according to the French president.

What are the prospects?

I don't expect the Strait of Hormuz to open anytime soon. I think the current war cannot be won quickly and will therefore last as long as Trump wants it to.

He might announce an end to the conflict once the nuclear program is definitively destroyed, but without regime change. This seems unlikely without an internal rebellion or a civil war.

The Kurdish card, which has been widely discussed, is being taken very seriously by Iran, which is constantly bombing Iraqi Kurdistan to prevent any crossing of the border but seems unlikely, if not supported by other internal and foreign actors to succeed.

Thank you very much for following the situation with me a I'm doing, with OSINT tools since few weeks.

I'm trying to gather the informations, make an analysis and a map for you every two day.

If you feel like it, you can support me here : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

Thank you again, here is the link of the previous thread and 2 videos showing the launch of Iranian missiles to Kuwait and an Emirati F16 launching a missile at an Iranian drone.

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2030429434713448463?s=20