African states became independent in the post-1945 order, and they've known no other system. It's now broken. The challenge of how to define and defend its people and core interests is existential because Africa was colonized in a world very much like the one emerging in 2026
Imagine, no post-1945 order and inheriting a newly independent state in 1960. Arbitrary borders. Dozens, hundreds, of pre-colonial polities previously suppressed by colonial power. No fiscal base. Cold War gamesmanship funding insurgencies. Unending turmoil and dissolution
Post-1945’s norms and institutions were hugely load-bearing. Non-interference and territorial integrity were scaffolding protecting ruling regimes and held fragile new states together long enough to attempt nation-building. Even demands for change were strictly within its bounds
The world emerging is closer to 1884 than 1945. Don’t imagine predation doesn’t have rules. Berlin 1884 was a conference to set rules. Except enforced only by those with power, for their purposes. Into the breach must come global south leadership pursuing a multilateral vision
Africa isn’t the only region in danger. If a few of its leaders move, they’ll find keen ears from 🇮🇳 to 🇨🇦 to 🇪🇺, on initiatives seeking to secure autonomous supply chains and diversify security partnerships. Just don’t be passengers. This next chapter needs african invention
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