The movement of a third carrier from the US East Coast, presumably to the Eastern Mediterranean to replace USS Ford, suggests an air power pivot to the mouth of the Strait of Hormoz to bring more jets in range of Mashad.
4/
The Mullah Regime is also having massive liquidity issues after its most important bank data center was bombed.
Now, right on cue, we are seeing retail drone strikes on Regime Security Force check points in the public urban areas with low collateral damage drone munitions.
Mid-to-low level Regime Security forces being hunted by drones in public whenever they concentrate in check points of columns plus not getting paid leaves the Mullah Regime vulnerable to a rapid collapse in the face of a mass insurrection.
Furthermore, hundreds of separate near simultaneous drone attacks strongly point to a lot of people with cell phone cameras sending targeting information on IRGC & Basij whereabouts in real time, AKA , the mass insurrection is in progress.
While the media concentrates on burning tankers by PTSD merchant mariners. ⬇️
The real schwerpunkt of the Iran War is on the streets of Iran's cities as the IRGC & Basij are hunted by US-Israeli drones, aided by angry Iranians w/cellphone cameras.
>>This is essentially a complete tactical bomber cell in a box, sized for a small mobile drone team operating at brigade level or below. It is not a strategic deep-strike weapon, and it is not pretending to be one.
I've spent the last few hours reposting my 2022 to date take down's of Alex Vershinin's "Truck beer math" (from the Nov. 2021 War on the Rocks article "Feeding the Bear") which I used to review this Tochnyi article⬇️
TLDR: Tochnyi screwed up & used Vershinin's disproven work. 1/
Specifically this bit stating Russian trucks did three trips a day because they spent one hour loading and one hour unloading trucks.
That is, like Alex Vershinin, they assumed mechanized logistics loading times with pallets & forklifts⬇️
2/
This is Alex Vershinin's truck "Beer Math" for comparison.
It assumes 45 miles vice 50 km, but both show the same mirror imaging of Western mechanized logistics on Red/Russian Army non-mechanized logistics.
Deploying lots of anti-tank and anti-personnel land mines with Gator cluster munitions dispensers was one of the major themes of the 1980's Follow On Forces Attack (FOFA) doctrine.
The doctrine was highly effective, hence Ukraine using it in 2026.