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Mar 12 18 tweets 6 min read Read on X
🚨The Pentagon’s Armageddon Problem
When Christian Nationalism Runs the U.S. Military

Pete Hegseth's White Christian Nationalist wet dream was to start war in the the Middle East to bring on biblical apocalypse.

And here we are. 🧵Image
As American troops were prepped to attack Iran, some were told something rather chilling.

According to complaints filed with a military watchdog group, soldiers were briefed that the conflict unfolding in the Middle East was part of “God’s divine plan.” Some commanders reportedly referenced the Book of Revelation and framed the war in prophetic terms.

Think about that for a second.

American soldiers — sent halfway around the world with rifles and drones — being told they are participating in biblical prophecy.
This isn’t a fringe sermon happening in a megachurch somewhere. These are the kinds of ideas circulating inside the same political movement that now controls the Pentagon.

And the man currently running it, Pete Hegseth, has spent years promoting exactly the worldview that makes that framing possible.Image
To understand why that matters, you have to step back and look at the ideology behind it.

Because what’s shaping a huge part of the modern Republican right is not simply Christianity.

It’s white Christian nationalism — a political theology that treats the United States as a divinely chosen Christian nation and interprets global politics through a cosmic struggle between Christianity and its religious and secular enemies.

And that worldview is tattooed all over a guy who decided to call himself the the Secretary of War instead of Secretary of Defense.
Why Israel Matters So Much to Christian Nationalists

To outsiders — especially in Europe — American politics around Israel can look baffling.

Why does the American right treat support for Israel as almost sacred?

Why does it override nearly every other foreign policy calculation?

The answer lies in a particular strand of evangelical theology that exploded in influence in the United States during the twentieth century: dispensationalism.
Dispensationalism lays out a prophetic timeline for the end of the world.

According to that framework:

The Jewish people must return to the land of Israel.

Israel must exist as a modern state.

A series of escalating conflicts in the Middle East culminate in a catastrophic war often identified with Armageddon.

Only then does Jesus return to Earth.

In this worldview, Israel isn’t just another country. It’s the stage on which the final act of human history is supposed to unfold. Which means events in Israel — wars, uprisings, regional conflicts — are often interpreted not simply as geopolitical crises, but as signs that prophecy is unfolding.
The Apocalyptic Map

This theology draws heavily from passages in Daniel, Ezekiel, and the Book of Revelation.

For more than a century, American pastors, authors, and televangelists have mapped those passages onto modern geopolitics.

The resulting prophetic storyline usually looks something like this:

Israel becomes the center of global conflict

A massive war engulfs the region

Hostile nations gather against Israel

A final battle unfolds at Armageddon

Christ returns to defeat evil and establish a new kingdom
These ideas entered mainstream American culture through books like Hal Lindsey’s The Late Great Planet Earth in the 1970s and later the massively popular Left Behind Rapture novels.

Millions of Americans grew up absorbing a version of global politics in which the Middle East is not just a region of strategic importance. It’s the setting of the apocalypse and the pathway to the second coming of Jesus.

This is not fringe theology, it has shaped the worldview of tens of millions of voters and increasingly, it has shaped the worldview of Republican politicians.

Which is, I must say, is some batshit crazy stuff. And Dangerous.

Because they all believe in it literally.
Which Brings Us to Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth has spent years speaking in exactly this civilizational language.

He has framed Israel not simply as an ally but as a frontline in a broader struggle between Western civilization and its enemies. He has declared that “if you love America, you should love Israel.” He titled one of his books American Crusade, invoking the medieval wars between Christian Europe and the Muslim world.Image
And in speeches and writing he repeatedly describes modern geopolitics as a civilizational conflict between Christian Nationalism and those who oppose it, domestic or foreign.

That framing matters.

Because once politics is interpreted through a religious lens, war stops looking like a failure of diplomacy and more like a Biblical mandate.
The Temple Mount and the End Times

One of the most revealing moments in Hegseth’s public record came during a speech in Jerusalem.

Standing within sight of the Temple Mount — one of the most contested religious sites on Earth — he suggested that the rebuilding of the Jewish temple there could happen in our lifetime and would be a miracle.

To most people, that might sound like a casual religious comment.

But in end-times theology, the rebuilding of the temple is a major prophetic milestone.

In the dispensationalist framework embraced by many Christian nationalists, the temple’s reconstruction is part of the sequence of events leading to the final confrontation described in Revelation.

In other words, it’s another step toward the end of the world.Image
Why This Would Sound Crazy in Europe
In most European democracies, the idea that senior government officials might interpret Middle East wars through the Book of Revelation would be treated as political disqualification.

American evangelical culture — especially since the Cold War — fused biblical prophecy, nationalism, and foreign policy into a single worldview. We alone believe in angels.
Over time, that worldview migrated from churches and televangelists into Republican politics. Today it sits comfortably inside the ideological ecosystem of the MAGA movement and the broader Christian nationalist right. Which means that beliefs that might sound extraordinary elsewhere are increasingly normalized here.

And they control the largest military the world has ever known, including weapons people inclined towards Revelation probably shouldn’t have control of.
The Dangerous Logic

Foreign policy decisions involving nuclear powers, regional war, and the lives of American soldiers are supposed to be made through strategic calculation.

Not biblical prophecy.

But when leaders view the Middle East through an apocalyptic lens, the incentives change. Escalation can start to feel inevitable, even meaningful.

Conflict stops being something to avoid at all costs and instead it becomes a sign that history is moving exactly where it’s supposed to go.
Don’t Fear the Reaper

For most of the post–World War II era, American foreign policy was grounded in realism — alliances, deterrence, economic interests, and strategic balance, but the rise of white Christian nationalism inside the Republican Party has introduced something very different.
A worldview in which:

The United States is a chosen Christian nation that should be run as a theocracy, not a democracy

Israel is the centerpiece of biblical prophecy

War in the Middle East is critical to eventually getting Raptured

When the people running the most powerful military in human history believe that story literally, it stops being a cultural curiosity and becomes a national security issue that should terrify us all.Image
One of the problems of collective action is how to get people to pay for things in the public sphere that they can access for free. You can use incentives, locked access, or guilt. I'm going with guilt this time!

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Omg this what I just wrote about us. The whole world is laughing

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Mar 9
🚨🚨🚨Iran’s Other Leverage: WATER

A couple days ago I wrote about the first lever Iran holds in this war: the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran disrupts shipping through that narrow channel between Iran and Oman, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply gets caught in the crossfire. Oil spikes. Shipping markets panic. The global economy starts sweating. That’s leverage.Image
But Hormuz is only half the story. Because there’s another vulnerability sitting right across the Persian Gulf—one that almost nobody outside the region knows about.

The modern cities of the Gulf are built in the middle of a motherfucking desert. Dubai. Abu Dhabi. Doha. Kuwait City. Manama.

Like this kind of desert!!!Image
Cities like these couldn’t exist before modern infrastructure. They exist because massive industrial plants along the coast turn seawater, the only water there, into drinking water. Take those machines away, and the system holding these cities together starts to break down frighteningly fast. Which means that in a regional war, those machines become something else entirely: targets.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 5
🚨🚨🚨Shit is About to Hit The Fan in the Strait of Hormuz:

For 60 years, Middle East Experts Have Feared Exactly What Trump Just Did

There are a lot of people in the Middle East tonight who are staring at their phones and wondering what tomorrow is going to bring.

Airspace is closing. Flights are being rerouted. Oil markets are jumping. Somewhere right now a tanker captain is trying to figure out whether it is safe to move through the narrow strip of water that carries a fifth of the world’s oil supply.Image
Somewhere else a sailor on an American warship is getting briefed about what it means to enter that same strip of water after Iran has warned that any vessel attempting to pass could be attacked.

For most Americans this still feels distant, abstract, like another foreign policy story unfolding somewhere far away. But the truth is that the next phase of this crisis is likely to unfold in one very specific place.

A place that most Americans had probably never heard of until this week.

The Strait of Hormuz.Image
You see that teeny-tiny spot. That’s just a 21-mile stretch through which world peace has longed hinged.

And the decisions being made around that narrow stretch of water may determine whether this moment becomes a contained geopolitical crisis or something much larger and far more dangerous.

Donald Trump ran for president promising something very simple: no wars.Image
Read 22 tweets
Feb 15
🚨🚨🚨 🧵You Build the Fences First
Infrastructure for Tyranny

In 1933, the Nazis did not hide Dachau.

They invited outsiders to see it.

Foreign correspondents were escorted through the newly opened Dachau Concentration Camp and shown neat barracks, orderly rows of bunks, and prisoners moving through structured routines. Guards stood upright and disciplined. The grounds appeared controlled, even efficient. What visitors saw looked administrative.Image
The violence — already present — was kept out of sight.

Early outside impressions could therefore be framed in bureaucratic language: order, discipline, containment, political detention. The regime understood something essential: if you shape what observers see, you shape how institutions are understood.

And in 1933, Dachau was not yet a symbol of industrialized mass murder. It was a political detention center. Its prisoners were primarily communists, social democrats, trade unionists, journalists, and critics of the new regime.Image
The Nazi’s genocidal machinery came later.

First came the infrastructure.

To understand what that infrastructure meant in practice, it helps to look at one of the men who passed through Dachau in its earliest weeks.

Hans Beimler, a Communist member of the Reichstag, was arrested in April 1933 and taken to Dachau shortly after the camp opened. His experience bore little resemblance to the orderly image shown to visitors.
Read 18 tweets
Feb 4
🧵How Putin Pulled Off The Greatest Intelligence Operation in History:

Putin's Small Investments Have Yielded Large Returns

This is a story about the best investment anyone’s ever made—anytime, anywhere.

Not a company.

Not a weapon.

Not a technology.

An idea. Image
In the early 2010s, Vladimir Putin looked at the United States and saw something most Americans refused to see about themselves. Not weakness in our military or the economy, but a country still strong by nearly every objective measure—and increasingly persuadable that it wasn’t.

By 2016, America had built the most powerful information ecosystem in human history: global reach, instant amplification, frictionless distribution, and no limits on money. And it had paired that system with almost no meaningful guardrails when it came to political speech. You couldn’t lie to sell a product. You couldn’t defraud investors. But lying to sell politics? That lives in a vast gray zone, protected by law, amplified by platforms, and rewarded by attention.
For a former intelligence officer, this wasn’t subtle. It was an open flank.

Putin didn’t need to defeat the United States militarily. He didn’t need to match American power. He just needed Americans to turn on one another inside a system designed to magnify conflict.

Why Misinformation Was the Weapon

Russia could never outspend the United States in conventional power. But modern intelligence operations aren’t about brute force. They’re about shaping environments—especially the information environments in which democratic decisions are made.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 2
My 2026 Midterm Forecast is out

Our Brand is Stopping Chaos:
Negative Partisanship Will Drive a Strong Midterm Effect for Democrats in 2026

Folks,

For those of you that have been on this roller-coaster ride with me from the bananas beginning will appreciate how we’ve come full circle this year.

Once again we have a madman in the White House and an electorate with serious buyer’s remorse.

Now that Republicans control the White House, negative partisanship once again favors Democrats as the party out-of-power (out party).Image
We are now far enough into this shitshow presidency to stop guessing about the 2026 midterms and start measuring them. So I spent this week in deep in data, waiting for the results of an obscure special election for the Texas state senate. There, the Democratic nominee was able to raise $2,000,000 to compete for a long, LONG shot district in Tarrant County (key Republican ground in Texas) that Trump carried by 17pts. This forced the Texas GOP to spend about $200,000 to defend a district they should never have to compete in.

Rehmet gave them a good ole fashioned Texas style ass whoopin’ earning 57% of the vote in that “safe” Trump district against a very attractive Republican nominee.
Not only is Taylor Rehmet’s incredible victory another strong indicator that Republicans will face a Blue Wave of unusual size size in 2026, it also means that deep-pocketed Republicans will have to spend a lot of money on defense this cycle. On that note, it sounds like Elon wants to insert himself into the midterms, which despite flooding the GOP with cash will also allow Democrats to wedge Elon himself, a strategy that worked great for Wisconsin Democrats in 2025.

So, not only did the Democratic candidate manage to win a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, he managed to force open the party’s purse and set a very high bar for potential overperformance in red districts.

It has Ron Desantis pissing his pants.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 10
🧵Dear Diary
Notes from Inside a Collapsing America

January 10, 2026

Dear Diary,

I have be honest, those are words I never expected to write, because I’m way too lazy and uninteresting to keep a diary But as most of you guys know, I’ve been reading and researching the Third Reich for about five years now.Image
I started off pretty wide, with big books about the developments and details of that eleven-year Reich that we mostly only pay attention to during the war years, even though it came into power in 1933. And it wasn’t long into that research before I started to really appreciate how important contemporaneous diary accounts were.
Back in the old days—before the internet —apparently most people kept diaries. That’s why we know so much about our history, our public officials, and what actually happened: because people intentionally wrote things down. All kinds of people:

Allied leaders

Nazi leaders

Resistance leaders

Jews in hiding

Jews in ghettos and camps

Journalists

Professors

Enslaved Workers

Housewives
Read 23 tweets

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