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Michael McAteer Profile picture
@Monetarius
Mar 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1980 is a significant date in the Kondratiev model of long waves of economic activity where many economic data broke trend, and so too the chart of mean global temperatures confirms the same about planetary warming.
I have cited numerous times that 2022 is also a year where number of key economic data broke trend in the opposite direction, suggesting to me that we have started a new long wave.
On the trend of global warming, does this chart indicate that our efforts to date to decarbonize world economies are starting to gain traction? If so, we are looking at a good news story. Image
The transition to EVs will have a huge impact. The transportation sector—of which automobiles are the largest component—is the biggest consumer of oil, accounting for more than 60% of global daily oil consumption in 2023.

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More from @Monetarius

Michael McAteer Profile picture
Mar 5
Walter Scheidel's thesis in his new book, The
Great Leveller: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the 21st Century, is that only violent events have significantly lessened inequality.
"For thousands of years, civilisation did not lend itself to peaceful equalisation. Across a wide range of societies anddifferent levels of development, stability favoured economic inequality. This was as true of Pharaonic Egypt as itwas of Victorian England,
...as true of the Roman Empire as of the United States. Violent shocks were of paramount importance in disrupting the established order, in compressing the distribution of income and wealth, in narrowing the gap between rich and poor.
Read 9 tweets
Michael McAteer Profile picture
Feb 22
This observation from Kondratiev's paper in 1927, Long Waves In Economic Life, is one of many that can be attributed to our contemporary experience. The mid-wave crisis peak that announced the recession of the last wave was undoubtedly, for the sake of assigning a single point,
...1980 when gold prices and interest rates hit their highs. It was also the period in which computer and internet technology made its appearance.
I am suggesting, apropos of Kondratiev's comment, that a feature of our place at the start of the new long wave, is the belief that AI will change everything by its adoption at a mass scale.
Read 5 tweets
Michael McAteer Profile picture
Jan 6
The dependency ratio is a demographic measure that compares the number of people typically not in the workforce (dependents) with the number of people who are typically of working age (the productive population).
It is an indicator of the potential economic burden on the working population and helps in planning for social services like healthcare and education. Image
Demographers in Ottawa freaked out when Canada's fertility rate hit an historical low on par with Italy and Japan, two societies statistically on a path to extinction. The hyper immigration between 2022 to 2024 was a policy choice.
Read 4 tweets
Michael McAteer Profile picture
Jan 5
The TMX was in full operation as of May of 2025. The idea that any country can be an "energy powerhouse" in the future based on oil contradicts the trend towards electrification that is the object of the energy transition.
Carney has stated at the release of the MOU with Alberta that he is open to approving a new pipeline to tidewater so long as private capital pays for it.
That is sensible in that this will only happen if the project satisfies the requirement of investors to have a reasonable chance for profits. I sincerely doubt it will.
Read 7 tweets
Michael McAteer Profile picture
Dec 4, 2025
Populist conservatives have lost the plot of value pluralism and are tending to fascism. "There are innumerable differences which obviously add to the interest of life, and without which it would be unendurably dull.
Again, there are differences which can neither be left unsettled nor be settled without a struggle, and a real one, but in regard to which the struggle is rather between inconsistent forms of good than between good and evil.
In cases of this sort no one need see an occasion for anything more than a good-tempered trial of strength and skill, except those narrow-minded fanatics whose minds are incapable of taking in more than one idea at a time,
Read 5 tweets
Michael McAteer Profile picture
Nov 28, 2025
The Arctic amplification is heating the north 2-4X faster than the rest of the planet. The Boreal forests are burning and south of it is in drought. Image
Quebec is currently importing more electricity than usual and is in a net importer position to prudently manage its water reservoirs, which are at low levels due to persistent drought conditions since 2023. 2025 is on track to be a "record year" for imports.
We're in trouble, but the Conservative Party refuses to address the threat of global warming. It is why the CPC forbade its candidates from participating in public debates in the last two federal election. This is political cowardice.
Read 6 tweets

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