1/ In recent weeks, an entire genre has sprung up on Telegram of Russian bloggers suddenly realising that they live in a repressive dictatorship. They complain bitterly that they were "fools", they are being "enslaved", and forced to endure a "cultural counter-revolution". ⬇️
2/ The forthcoming ban on Telegram – likely to be announced on 1 April – appears to have woken up many Russian bloggers to the way the Russian government is systematically attacking free speech. 'Under the ice' predicts catastrophe:
3/ "In general, the desire to confine all citizens of the country to a sterile information bubble, eliminating the use of inappropriate social networks, books, music, and films, will have the most devastating consequences for the state itself.
4/ "In this sense, Russian authorities resemble a five-year-old child covering his eyes with his hands, hoping the bogeyman will disappear, but the bogeyman never does.
5/ "If you don't talk about airstrikes, the airstrikes won't go away. If you don't sing about drugs, the drugs won't disappear. Even if you ban any mention of sex, those cunning Russians will still manage to get laid somehow.
6/ "Here's what will happen:
1) If bloggers and journalists are replaced by word of mouth, the level of panic and anger among the population will only increase.
7/ "As we know, fear has big eyes. And even the most insignificant negative event will be blown out of proportion.
Total ignorance of the masses always breeds panic and fear.
8/ "2) The degradation of science, culture, and education will accelerate significantly, leading to their almost complete destruction.
And the destruction of science, culture, and education will lead to the general degeneration of society.
9/ "3) Following the degradation of education, the economy will begin to collapse.
We currently lack unskilled specialists. Soon, we will also lack qualified professionals.
And we can't import them from Central Asia.
10/ "4) A complete brain drain (the last ones) from the country.
If scientists, journalists, writers, and artists are unable to work normally in our country, then sooner or later they will leave for wherever they can.
11/ "Not for political reasons, but for survival. This will further accelerate the degradation of the state and society.
5) At the same time, the barbarization and kishlakization [repopulation by Central Asians] of the country will naturally occur.
12/ "A holy place abhors a vacuum. And if Russian culture ends up in a semi-banned position, then another culture will simply take its place.
The risks of this process are also clear to everyone.
13/ "In short, these will be the results of the current cultural counterrevolution in the Russian Federation.
And then all that remains is to wait for the fruit to ripen."
'Larkin' sees the government's policy as being driven by a corrupt, hypocritical cosmopolitan elite:
14/ "So, we're already being controlled by a foreign state. A literal government apparatus of cosmopolitans with accounts in England, children in Europe, and mistresses in the Emirates.
15/ "What's so special about them? They lie to my face as a citizen, fleece me, keep me enslaved at the front, force me to dump all my personal data into some leaky software, forbid me from listening to music and calling my friends through "incorrect" programs…
16/ …that they can't steal money from. They say it's for security, but drones fly every day and I have no security whatsoever. And the officials who justify all this kiss the hands of old Ichkerian [Chechen] women, while all their relatives have foreign citizenship.
17/ "Is this the Russian state or something? Ridiculous.
I have never called and never will call for the overthrow of the government; I am categorically against it. But I won't go to defend it in this state either. It hasn't earned my loyalty.
18/ "Start doing something, face the people, stop blatantly lying. And the country will respond in kind, just like it did in 2022.
Otherwise, you'll be left to feast on each other, and we'll watch from the sidelines without interfering. We'll negotiate with whoever wins."
19/ Mitya Olshansky, writing as 'The Commissar Disappears', laments that Russia's exiled liberals were right after all:
20/ "Just ten years ago, I loved writing about how the current government differs fundamentally (and for the better) from the Soviet era in that it is committed to common sense.
21/ "Sure, it gets into scandals, it steals, it unfairly persecutes certain unfortunate lunatics, fanatics, and fools, but most importantly, it is true to reason and has learned the lessons of the twentieth century: it doesn't pressure the average person, it doesn't ruin…
22/ …their daily routine, it doesn't invent idiotic restrictions, and beyond the world of oligarchs and oil and gas, television and rockets, the upper crust and billions, no one prevents private individuals from living as they please and saying whatever they want.
23/ "It sounds funny now, doesn't it?
24/ "In the new reality of the 2020s, where not only social media but even the internet itself is being shut down, phone calls are blocked, businesses are being bullied, anyone and everyone is being punished and banned in any way they can—all notions of Russia…
25/ …in the first twenty years of this century are rapidly becoming obsolete.
Except, of course, those of the most desperate dissidents and émigrés. They can only gleefully laugh: “We told you so, fools.”
26/ "And indeed. We are the fools now.
Loyal, patriotic fools with no plans to leave the country.
Serves us right, I suppose.
27/ "I think our government has now opened the best school of liberal values in the world.
And it will teach us liberal values in a way no foreign agents or sinister enemy intelligence agencies ever could." /end
1/ Russia has reportedly provided Iran with targeting data on Israel's critical energy infrastructure, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources quoted by the Jerusalem Post. ⬇️
1/ Russia's blocking of Telegram is having a devastating effect on the volunteer communities that support the Russian army in Ukraine. A Russian warblogger posts a despairing account of how the 'humanitarian aid' system has all but collapsed as a result. ⬇️
2/ The Russian army is hugely dependent on volunteer-provided 'humanitarian aid' – which in practice means anything from drones to generators to bulletproof vests – because so little is provided by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Alexander Zaborovsky writes:
3/ "I’m talking about Telegram blocks and specifically what has been drastically affected by them.
I’m referring to volunteer organisations and groups. 99% of them rely on Telegram for communication, including with combat units.
1/ Goldman Sachs analysts report that the biggest oil crisis in history is about to hit globally, with profound and highly destructive consequences. A new report asks ""Are We Running Out of Oil?", and concludes that the answer is yes. ⬇️
2/ Goldman reports that average daily flows of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 94% from their pre-war levels.
3/ This has led to a 63% collapse in the flow of oil and its refined products from the Middle East. Exports are down from 7.4 million to 2.8 million barrels per day of oil, 39% of which is flowing via a pipeline to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports.
1/ A shortage of drones reportedly means that Russian drone pilots often don't attack Ukrainian vehicles again after disabling them. This, says a serving Russian soldier, means that the Ukrainians are frequently able to retrieve disabled vehicles. ⬇️
2/ Russian forces in Ukraine have been complaining for a long time that they lack drones, with those provided by the Russian MOD being few and often of poor quality.
3/ Instead, they often have to rely on voluntary donations and unofficial drone production by the so-called 'people's military-industrial complex' – an ecosystem of enthusiasts and ex-military personnel who make or import drones for military use.
1/ News of the destruction of yet another US aircraft on the ground is being met with incredulity by Russian Air Force pilots. They ask if the United States has learned nothing from Russia's own very costly experiences. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel run by a group of Russian military helicopter pilots, expresses astonishment at pictures published overnight of a US CH-47 Chinook helicopter that was destroyed on the ground in Kuwait.
3/ "I look at this photo and realize that the Americans, with all their budgets and all, haven't studied or systematized our experience in any way.
1/ Russian army commanders are reportedly refusing to allow stored ZSU-23-4 Shilkas mobile anti-aircraft guns to be refurbished and put back into service, despite Russia's desperate need for more defences against Ukraine's increasingly large-scale drone strikes. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel written by three Russian Aerospace Force pilots, writes:
"I was talking to some guys from one of the repair battalions the other day."
3/ "They were showing us what Category 5 [the lowest condition] equipment they're getting off its knees with their own resources.
BMPs [armoured personnel carriers], BTS [armoured recovery tractors], and so on.