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Mar 13 28 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ In recent weeks, an entire genre has sprung up on Telegram of Russian bloggers suddenly realising that they live in a repressive dictatorship. They complain bitterly that they were "fools", they are being "enslaved", and forced to endure a "cultural counter-revolution". ⬇️ AI-generated image of weeping people looking at their mobile phones in front of St Basil's Cathedral, Moscow
2/ The forthcoming ban on Telegram – likely to be announced on 1 April – appears to have woken up many Russian bloggers to the way the Russian government is systematically attacking free speech. 'Under the ice' predicts catastrophe:
3/ "In general, the desire to confine all citizens of the country to a sterile information bubble, eliminating the use of inappropriate social networks, books, music, and films, will have the most devastating consequences for the state itself.
4/ "In this sense, Russian authorities resemble a five-year-old child covering his eyes with his hands, hoping the bogeyman will disappear, but the bogeyman never does.
5/ "If you don't talk about airstrikes, the airstrikes won't go away. If you don't sing about drugs, the drugs won't disappear. Even if you ban any mention of sex, those cunning Russians will still manage to get laid somehow.
6/ "Here's what will happen:

1) If bloggers and journalists are replaced by word of mouth, the level of panic and anger among the population will only increase.
7/ "As we know, fear has big eyes. And even the most insignificant negative event will be blown out of proportion.

Total ignorance of the masses always breeds panic and fear.
8/ "2) The degradation of science, culture, and education will accelerate significantly, leading to their almost complete destruction.

And the destruction of science, culture, and education will lead to the general degeneration of society.
9/ "3) Following the degradation of education, the economy will begin to collapse.

We currently lack unskilled specialists. Soon, we will also lack qualified professionals.

And we can't import them from Central Asia.
10/ "4) A complete brain drain (the last ones) from the country.

If scientists, journalists, writers, and artists are unable to work normally in our country, then sooner or later they will leave for wherever they can.
11/ "Not for political reasons, but for survival. This will further accelerate the degradation of the state and society.

5) At the same time, the barbarization and kishlakization [repopulation by Central Asians] of the country will naturally occur.
12/ "A holy place abhors a vacuum. And if Russian culture ends up in a semi-banned position, then another culture will simply take its place.

The risks of this process are also clear to everyone.
13/ "In short, these will be the results of the current cultural counterrevolution in the Russian Federation.

And then all that remains is to wait for the fruit to ripen."

'Larkin' sees the government's policy as being driven by a corrupt, hypocritical cosmopolitan elite:
14/ "So, we're already being controlled by a foreign state. A literal government apparatus of cosmopolitans with accounts in England, children in Europe, and mistresses in the Emirates.
15/ "What's so special about them? They lie to my face as a citizen, fleece me, keep me enslaved at the front, force me to dump all my personal data into some leaky software, forbid me from listening to music and calling my friends through "incorrect" programs…
16/ …that they can't steal money from. They say it's for security, but drones fly every day and I have no security whatsoever. And the officials who justify all this kiss the hands of old Ichkerian [Chechen] women, while all their relatives have foreign citizenship.
17/ "Is this the Russian state or something? Ridiculous.

I have never called and never will call for the overthrow of the government; I am categorically against it. But I won't go to defend it in this state either. It hasn't earned my loyalty.
18/ "Start doing something, face the people, stop blatantly lying. And the country will respond in kind, just like it did in 2022.

Otherwise, you'll be left to feast on each other, and we'll watch from the sidelines without interfering. We'll negotiate with whoever wins."
19/ Mitya Olshansky, writing as 'The Commissar Disappears', laments that Russia's exiled liberals were right after all:
20/ "Just ten years ago, I loved writing about how the current government differs fundamentally (and for the better) from the Soviet era in that it is committed to common sense.
21/ "Sure, it gets into scandals, it steals, it unfairly persecutes certain unfortunate lunatics, fanatics, and fools, but most importantly, it is true to reason and has learned the lessons of the twentieth century: it doesn't pressure the average person, it doesn't ruin…
22/ …their daily routine, it doesn't invent idiotic restrictions, and beyond the world of oligarchs and oil and gas, television and rockets, the upper crust and billions, no one prevents private individuals from living as they please and saying whatever they want.
23/ "It sounds funny now, doesn't it?
24/ "In the new reality of the 2020s, where not only social media but even the internet itself is being shut down, phone calls are blocked, businesses are being bullied, anyone and everyone is being punished and banned in any way they can—all notions of Russia…
25/ …in the first twenty years of this century are rapidly becoming obsolete.

Except, of course, those of the most desperate dissidents and émigrés. They can only gleefully laugh: “We told you so, fools.”
26/ "And indeed. We are the fools now.

Loyal, patriotic fools with no plans to leave the country.

Serves us right, I suppose.
27/ "I think our government has now opened the best school of liberal values ​​in the world.

And it will teach us liberal values ​​in a way no foreign agents or sinister enemy intelligence agencies ever could." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Mar 15
1/ A superpower invades a small island off the coast of an enemy nation. After a short bombardment, marines seize and hold the island. 126 days later, they stage a humiliating retreat under constant fire from the mainland. This is the story of Ukraine's Snake Island. ⬇️ Image
2/ With reports that the US may be considering seizing Iran's Kharg Island, it's worth reviewing what happened in Russia's disastrous attempt to capture the strategic Ostriv Zmiinyi (Snake Island) off the south-western coast of Ukraine between February and June 2022.
3/ There are of course very important differences between the two islands, but the similarities are also worth discussing.

Snake Island is a small, barren rocky outcrop of some 0.2 km², located in the Black Sea 35 km off the coast of Ukraine. It has no permanent population.
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
1/ Russia's air defences are doing great, according to Russian warbloggers. However, they say that those of Laos (a synecdoche for Russia, to evade censors) are crippled by shortages of manpower and resources, and an inflexible command and control system.
2/ Two popular Russian Telegram warbloggers discuss problems with the Russian air defence system, using carefully worded euphemisms to avoid getting into trouble with the authorities. 'RAG&E' writes:
3/ "The Russian Armed Forces rank second in the world military rankings, but its air defence capabilities are clearly and rightfully ranked first.

I think everyone agrees on this, so let's move on to Laos.
Read 22 tweets
Mar 14
1/ Russian journalist and analyst Yuri Baranchik asks plaintively: "why have they started terrorising the people?" He joins the dots between various recent actions by the Russian government, including the blocking of Telegram, and warns of a "1917 [or] 1989" scenario. ⬇️ Image
2/ Baranchik's lament is the latest in a growing trend of Russian commentators suddenly becoming aware that the repressive power of the state is being turned on 'loyal Russians', rather than just against the despised liberals or anti-war protesters.
3/ He writes:

"Why open a second front – against our own – when the SVO [Special Military Operation] is underway?

I've been analysing processes both domestically and globally for quite some time now – since 1994, that is, for over thirty years."
Read 22 tweets
Mar 13
1/ Muscovites are being locked into an ever-growing 'digital gulag', complain Russian warbloggers, as a still-mysterious mobile Internet shutdown in central Moscow enters its second week. The shutdown is reported to be causing huge commercial losses and inconvenience. ⬇️ AI-generated image of a frustrated man yelling at his mobile phone on Moscow's Nikolskaya Street
2/ Starting March 5th, Internet access in central Moscow was shut down, apparently on the orders of the Russian government. It has even extended to shutting down Wi-Fi on the Moscow Metro and the parliamentary Wi-Fi network in the State Duma.
3/ 'Blue Beard' says the city is being plunged back into the primeval darkness of 2007:

"The only app that works in the city centre in the evening, regardless of mobile internet conditions, is Yandex Music.

Meanwhile, Sberbank and T-Bank's banking apps have crashed."
Read 36 tweets
Mar 12
1/ Russia simply isn't capable of doing in Ukraine what the US and Israeli air forces are doing in Iran, a prominent Russian warblogger admits. He blames the Russian air force's "organisational backwardness, underdeveloped intelligence, and lack of specialised aviation." ⬇️ Image
2/ Ukraine's aviation situation is starkly different to that of Iran's, despite facing a theoretically more powerful opponent. The Ukrainian Air Force is not only still flying in substantial numbers but has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Western aircraft. Image
3/ 'Military Informant' discusses why the Russian Aerospace Forces are still unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine after over four years of full-scale war:
Read 17 tweets
Mar 12
1/ News that the Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected highlights its unusual governing structure as a 'polydictatorship'. In many ways, it was designed from the ground up to resist regime change. ⬇️
2/ The regime comprises a multi-layered set of elected and unelected institutions that shares power across religious bodies bodies, the armed forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), and economic entities. Each provides a separate and distinct power centre. Image
3/ They each have their own institutional bases, resources, coercive capacity, and claims to legitimacy — none of which fully controls the others, but which collectively make the regime more resilient to internal and external shocks.
Read 20 tweets

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