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Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
@ackocher
Mar 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Latino voters are not just pushing back on Trump's immigration agenda, they're making it an electoral priority. Here's what the data shows, and why it matters heading into 2026
Trump's immigration enforcement approach is rejected by 86% of Hispanic voters, with only 14% supporting his hardline tactics. One-third of Latino voters specifically say ICE is "out of control." That's not a fringe view it's a supermajority.
According to Equis polling, immigration has surged to the #2 issue for Latino voters up threefold from October 2025 to February 2026. The economy still leads, but the speed of that shift is a serious warning sign for Republicans.
Latino voters reversed Trump's 2024 gains in a decisive way: turnout hit 2.3 million in the Texas Democratic primary (the strongest primary showing this decade) driven largely by Latinos mobilizing against Trump's immigration agenda.
Communities nationwide are also blocking Trump's $45 billion detention expansion. Under community pressure, property owners in Texas, Missouri, Virginia, and Utah canceled warehouse sales. At least 12 facilities have been stopped entirely, blocking nearly 48,000 detention beds.
Even Republicans are breaking ranks. Governor Kelly Ayotte (NH), Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS), & Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) have publicly opposed new detention facilities in their districts. In Wilson County, TN, 24 of 25 commissioners voted against a proposed 16,000-bed mega-center
This is what grassroots accountability looks like at the ballot box and in the county commission chambers. Want deeper analysis on how immigration enforcement is playing out across the country? Follow me on Substack: austinkocher.substack.com

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More from @ackocher

Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Apr 1
New ICE arrest data just dropped via the Deportation Data Project's FOIA lawsuit. I spent hours validating it so you don't have to. Here's what the numbers actually show. 🧵
First, the data now goes back to October 2022 further than the previous release. It covers through March 9, 2026, giving us the most complete picture of ICE enforcement we've had yet.
Despite public safety justifications for mass deportation, monthly ICE arrests have not increased substantially since Spring 2025. In fact, arrests have objectively declined since October 2025.
Read 10 tweets
Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Mar 23
The US government collected over $1 billion in immigration fees then refused to process the applications. No denials. No refunds. Just silence. This is the largest fee fraud in the history of the American immigration system. Here's what's happening. 🧵
Three separate policies (signed by Trump, Secretary Rubio, and USCIS head Edlow) now bar citizens of 92 countries from receiving immigrant visas. That covers roughly half of all legal immigrants entering the US from abroad.
A December 2025 proclamation alone blocks 1 in 5 legal immigrants from entering the US. It covers major origin countries including Cuba, Venezuela, Nigeria, Haiti, and Iran, with no end date and no refunds for fees already paid.
Read 9 tweets
Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Mar 11
ICE isn't just building detention centers. It's engineering an entirely new industrial infrastructure for mass deportation; modeled explicitly on Amazon's supply chain. Here's the full architecture of what's being built. 🧵
ICE calls it the "Detention Reengineering Initiative." The goal: consolidate 300 existing facilities into just 34, while increasing total capacity. Processing centers hold people 3–7 days. Mega centers hold people up to 60 days before deportation. @axios
@axios Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons described the vision publicly at a border security expo: run deportations like Amazon "Like Prime, but with human beings." That quote came from a federal law enforcement official describing a plan now funded with $38 billion of your tax money.
Read 7 tweets
Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Mar 11
Congress gave ICE $45 billion last year in a single bill. Here's where that money is going and who is cashing in on the largest expansion of immigrant detention in American history. 🧵
In July 2025, Congress gave ICE a total of $45 billion for immigration detention more than a decade of normal funding in one lump sum. ICE's annual detention budget had previously been around $3.4 billion. That's a 13x increase. @immcouncil
@immcouncil ICE is now spending $38.3 billion of that to buy 8 "mega centers" (7,000–10,000 beds each), 16 processing centers (1,000–1,500 beds each), and 10 more facilities for a total planned capacity of 92,600 people. @axios
Read 7 tweets
Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Mar 10
ICE has a playbook for buying warehouse detention centers: move fast, tell nobody, and let communities find out from property records or news leaks. It's happened in at least 20 towns across the country. A thread. 🧵
In Socorro, TX a town of 40,000 outside El Paso a deed was filed showing DHS had already inked a $122.8M deal for 826,000 sq ft of warehouse space before the mayor received any communication. "Nobody from the federal government bothered to pick up the phone," the mayor said.
In rural Berks County, PA, a commissioner called the DA, sheriff, jail warden, and emergency services after hearing ICE might be coming. No one knew anything. Days later, land records showed ICE had already bought the building for $87.4M. “There was absolutely no warning.”
Read 7 tweets
Austin Kocher, PhD Profile picture
Mar 10
The Trump administration built Camp East Montana in 2 months, handed a $1.2B contract to a company operating out of a single-family home in Virginia, and called it the model for its new national detention system. Here's how that's going. 🧵
Camp East Montana opened at Fort Bliss in El Paso in August 2025. Within 50 days, ICE’s oversight office documented more than 60 violations of federal detention standards. ACLU called for the facility’s closure following reports of abuse, medical neglect, & coerced deportations.
In a six-week span between December and January, six people died while detained by ICE in Texas, three of them at Camp East Montana. One death was ruled a homicide by the county medical examiner, the first such ruling linked to ICE staff in at least 15 years.
Read 7 tweets

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