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Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Mar 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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Latino voters are not just pushing back on Trump's immigration agenda, they're making it an electoral priority. Here's what the data shows, and why it matters heading into 2026

Trump's immigration enforcement approach is rejected by 86% of Hispanic voters, with only 14% supporting his hardline tactics. One-third of Latino voters specifically say ICE is "out of control." That's not a fringe view it's a supermajority.

According to Equis polling, immigration has surged to the #2 issue for Latino voters up threefold from October 2025 to February 2026. The economy still leads, but the speed of that shift is a serious warning sign for Republicans.

Latino voters reversed Trump's 2024 gains in a decisive way: turnout hit 2.3 million in the Texas Democratic primary (the strongest primary showing this decade) driven largely by Latinos mobilizing against Trump's immigration agenda.

Communities nationwide are also blocking Trump's $45 billion detention expansion. Under community pressure, property owners in Texas, Missouri, Virginia, and Utah canceled warehouse sales. At least 12 facilities have been stopped entirely, blocking nearly 48,000 detention beds.

Even Republicans are breaking ranks. Governor Kelly Ayotte (NH), Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS), & Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) have publicly opposed new detention facilities in their districts. In Wilson County, TN, 24 of 25 commissioners voted against a proposed 16,000-bed mega-center

This is what grassroots accountability looks like at the ballot box and in the county commission chambers. Want deeper analysis on how immigration enforcement is playing out across the country? Follow me on Substack: austinkocher.substack.com

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Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Mar 11

ICE isn't just building detention centers. It's engineering an entirely new industrial infrastructure for mass deportation; modeled explicitly on Amazon's supply chain. Here's the full architecture of what's being built. 🧵

ICE calls it the "Detention Reengineering Initiative." The goal: consolidate 300 existing facilities into just 34, while increasing total capacity. Processing centers hold people 3–7 days. Mega centers hold people up to 60 days before deportation. @axios

@axios Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons described the vision publicly at a border security expo: run deportations like Amazon "Like Prime, but with human beings." That quote came from a federal law enforcement official describing a plan now funded with $38 billion of your tax money.

Read 7 tweets

Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Mar 11

Congress gave ICE $45 billion last year in a single bill. Here's where that money is going and who is cashing in on the largest expansion of immigrant detention in American history. 🧵

In July 2025, Congress gave ICE a total of $45 billion for immigration detention more than a decade of normal funding in one lump sum. ICE's annual detention budget had previously been around $3.4 billion. That's a 13x increase. @immcouncil

@immcouncil ICE is now spending $38.3 billion of that to buy 8 "mega centers" (7,000–10,000 beds each), 16 processing centers (1,000–1,500 beds each), and 10 more facilities for a total planned capacity of 92,600 people. @axios

Read 7 tweets

Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Mar 10

ICE has a playbook for buying warehouse detention centers: move fast, tell nobody, and let communities find out from property records or news leaks. It's happened in at least 20 towns across the country. A thread. 🧵

In Socorro, TX a town of 40,000 outside El Paso a deed was filed showing DHS had already inked a $122.8M deal for 826,000 sq ft of warehouse space before the mayor received any communication. "Nobody from the federal government bothered to pick up the phone," the mayor said.

In rural Berks County, PA, a commissioner called the DA, sheriff, jail warden, and emergency services after hearing ICE might be coming. No one knew anything. Days later, land records showed ICE had already bought the building for $87.4M. “There was absolutely no warning.”

Read 7 tweets

Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Mar 10

The Trump administration built Camp East Montana in 2 months, handed a $1.2B contract to a company operating out of a single-family home in Virginia, and called it the model for its new national detention system. Here's how that's going. 🧵

Camp East Montana opened at Fort Bliss in El Paso in August 2025. Within 50 days, ICE’s oversight office documented more than 60 violations of federal detention standards. ACLU called for the facility’s closure following reports of abuse, medical neglect, & coerced deportations.

In a six-week span between December and January, six people died while detained by ICE in Texas, three of them at Camp East Montana. One death was ruled a homicide by the county medical examiner, the first such ruling linked to ICE staff in at least 15 years.

Read 7 tweets

Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Feb 14

The House just passed the SAVE America Act for the third year running. It would require proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. At least 21 million U.S. citizens don't even have driver's licenses, let alone passports or birth certificates. (thread)

The bill targets a problem that barely exists. Noncitizen voting in federal elections is extraordinarily rare. Meanwhile, the ID requirements would create real barriers for low-income and minority communities where these documents are harder to obtain.

Here's the constitutional wrinkle: the Constitution gives states, not Congress, the power to set voter eligibility. The Supreme Court said exactly this in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council (2013). Congress can regulate election procedures, but not who qualifies to vote.

Read 4 tweets

Austin Kocher, PhD

@ackocher

Jan 5

ProPublica reviewed months of Fox News coverage and 700+ social media videos from Portland protests. The found that Fox repeatedly aired 2020 footage and labeled it 2025. Trump watched, announced the National Guard was coming, and said the city looked like "World War II."

Specifically, a Sept. 4 segment showed a Navy veteran being pepper-sprayed and struck with a baton. Fox said it was 2025. The video was posted to social media July 18, 2020. They showed a burning flag from 2020, a mile away from the 2025 protest site.

Fox showed fires in the street from Aug. 19, 2020, the day after a crowd set fires in the Multnomah County headquarters. They aired it in September 2025 while discussing current protests. Trump said afterward: "I didn't know that was still going on."

Read 10 tweets

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