Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 13 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Bessent: India buying Russian oil was inevitable. That’s why we gave a 30-day waiver.

The oil was already on the water and refineries needed supply. Otherwise it would have gone to China. It’s unfortunate Russia benefits, but we hope only for a short time.

1/
Bessent: Our actions were not about China. They were about U.S. interests. Venezuela had become close to a failed narco-state.

The goal is to protect the Western Hemisphere and support Latin American countries moving toward market economies and closer ties with the U.S.

2/
Bessent: When I flew to Argentina last spring, we had to avoid Bolivia because it had closed its airspace to U.S. military aircraft.

Now Bolivia is becoming an ally again. Chile also shifted back. This is a chance to strengthen economic and security ties with the U.S.

3/
Bessent: The military operation was meant to stop Iran from protecting its nuclear program with missiles.

If nothing had been done, in a year or 18 months Iran could have had two or three times more missiles and weapons.

4X
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More from @Mylovanov

May 27
Bolton: Iran is using negotiations to prove it controls the Strait of Hormuz, that everyone must bargain with Tehran before Arab oil and cargoes leave the Gulf.

If Iran can turn Hormuz on and off like a light switch, the precedent is disastrous. 1/
Bolton: Tehran is desperately playing for time.

If Iran gets control of the Strait and resumes oil revenues, it will rebuild the Quds Force, militias, nuclear program, missile program and drone program — then threaten the Gulf even more. 2/
Bolton: Freedom of the seas is the core issue. Hormuz was an international waterway where commercial vessels and even warships had the right of innocent passage.

If Iran can control passage or charge tolls, that right is becoming history. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 27
"If Russia had not invaded Ukraine, nobody would be striking Tuapse or Perm."

Konstantin Sonin, University of Chicago: Russia's recent "growth" came from wartime production. Civilian sectors stagnated — The Insider. 1/ Image
Sonin argues Russian economic statistics don’t match reality.

Official data claims incomes are rising, but Russians are buying fewer cars, traveling less, delaying healthcare spending, and consuming less overall.

“People are objectively living worse.” 2/
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are becoming one of the war’s most sensitive economic pressure points.

According to Sonin, Moscow left nearly 400 billion rubles with oil companies in March to repair damaged refineries and infrastructure. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 27
Russians kidnapped and killed priest Stepan Podolchak from Kherson Oblast because he refused to hold sermons in Russian and transfer his church to the control of the Moscow Patriarchate.

His wife had to identify his body after he was taken from his home — United24. 1/ Image
By 2024 Russians had killed around 50 priests. Russia uses religion as a tool of occupation as systematically as it uses schools, internet and property. 2/
The Russian Orthodox Church under the Moscow Patriarchate is the only one allowed to operate freely in occupied territories. All other denominations are either closed or driven underground. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 26
U.S. is telling Europe to defend itself.
Trump is shrinking the US military footprint in Europe toward pre-2022 levels.

The Pentagon is cutting brigade deployments from 4 to 3 and delaying 4,000 troops bound for Poland — FT. 1/ Image
The White House says this is about “maximising American security.”
Critics inside NATO call it a dangerous signal to Moscow.

Jim Townsend: “If we are pulling troops out willy-nilly, what messages does that send?” 2/
The change in policy hits Eastern Europe hardest.

Poland was blindsided after the US abruptly cancelled a planned troop rotation. JD Vance said the troops “could go elsewhere in Europe” instead. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 26
United24: No European capital can defend itself against Russia's Oreshnik.

Europe lacks reliable defense against ballistic missiles. The US produces only 700 Patriot interceptors per year, Gulf states fired over 800 in just a few days during the Iran war.

1/ Image
On the night of May 24, Russia launched 90 missiles and 600 drones at Kyiv. Ukraine shot down 55 out of 90 missiles — but ballistic missiles remain the main problem.

There are simply too few Patriot interceptors available.

2/
Ukraine proposed a coalition of 13 countries to jointly develop anti-ballistic missiles and build production facilities in Europe.

The concept: participating countries prioritize deliveries for their own defense — making the project independent of political bargaining.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 26
Russia jams Ukrainian drones targeting its Baltic ports and redirects them into NATO airspace.

Baltic officials warn this could gradually erode public support for Ukraine in countries that have been among Kyiv's strongest backers, — Kyiv Independent.
1/ Image
The first major incident: March 2026, several drones crashed in Finland. At least one confirmed Ukrainian.
Kyiv apologized, saying the drones were aimed at military targets inside Russia but sent off course by Russian electronic interference.
2/
Latvia's government collapsed over it. After stray Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace on May 7, the defense minister resigned.
Days later, the prime minister quit after losing her coalition majority.
3/
Read 7 tweets

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