Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 13 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Bolton: Trump could declare victory over Iran and pull out at any moment — and that’s a problem. The public was never prepared for regime change.

Many leaders since the Cold War assumed history had ended, but the world is still dangerous and requires serious strategy.

1/
Bolton: Trump often looks for an off-ramp. My concern is he may damage Iran but stop before regime change happens.

That would leave the same regime in power — wounded and more desperate for revenge. If he wasn’t ready to finish it, he shouldn’t have started the war.

2/
Bolton: Iran's regime rules by repression despite deep public anger.

The economy is collapsing, most young people want a different future, and many ethnic groups oppose the government.

If the regime can’t defend itself after these attacks, its days may be numbered.

3/
Bolton: I would not have started war with Iran unless the goal was regime change and there was the resolve to see it through.

I would tell Trump to stay the course. Persistence and patience are needed.

4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 19
Zelenskyy: Lukashenko says he doesn't want to be dragged into this war. He should be honest with his own people.

It's not him being dragged in, it's his entire country, dragged in by Russia. They've been doing this since day one of the full-scale invasion. That is a fact. 1/
Zelenskyy: When the full-scale war began, missiles flew from Belarus — killing children, killing adults.

He called and apologized, said he didn't control it, that Russia acted on his territory. I don't believe that. Now Russia will keep pushing him deeper into this war. 2/
Zelenskyy: Right now on Belarusian towers along our border there are Russian retranslators and equipment correcting fire on Ukrainian civilians.

People are dying every day because of this. Children are being wounded. Can he remove it? If he doesn't — we will do it ourselves. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
Keane: If we can’t go any place we want, when we want, for as long as we want, we don’t have verification.

Any Iran deal must include anywhere, anytime inspections. 1/
Keane: Iran manipulated the IAEA for years. Old protocol let Tehran decide where, when, and how long to inspect.

U.S. and Mossad intelligence must drive inspections. When it pointed to secret sites, enrichment, or centrifuges, Iran said: No deal. That’s not in the protocol. 2/
Keane: The nature of the regime has not changed. They say one thing and do another. We cannot trust them. We have to enforce compliance.

The U.S. could have finished the offensive operation. Now we are on a diplomatic path. We’ve got them on their knees. Let’s finish this. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/
Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/
Fukuyama: It is very unlikely Iran will budge over the next two months. These are precisely the issues that speak to the regime's core identity and survival.

He chose to back down and accept a return to the status quo from before he started the war on February 28th. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: Ukraine will manufacture 7 million drones this year, doubled from last year. They use 10,000 per day.

Software changes every week or two, hardware every three to four weeks. About 60% of battlefield drones now use fiber optic cable extending 30 to 35 kilometers. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine created an entirely new military branch, an Unmanned Systems Force alongside army, navy, and air force.

This organization is inflicting over 90% of all casualties on Russians on the battlefield daily. No other country has done anything like it. 2/
Petraeus: What is coming next: autonomous systems of autonomous systems.

Sensors collecting autonomously, integrated into a common picture, command and control making decisions, issuing orders to autonomous weapons. Coming soon to a theater near us. Ukraine will show it first 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/
Petraeus: They have hit at least 40% of Russia's fuel storage and refineries.

They blew up a fuel depot in St. Petersburg the morning Putin opened his economic forum, then hit again the next day. Russia has taken more killed and wounded than the US did in all of World War II. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: There is a death zone of about 35 kilometers on the front lines in Ukraine. You do not drive a vehicle in it.

Commanders cannot visit their troops. There are no trenches, drones fly through trenches. Only survivability positions underground. You burrow in from the side. 1/
Petraeus: All resupply is done by remotely driven vehicles. Medical evacuation, ammunition, food, batteries — everything.

Soldiers come out at night to collect supplies and get back underground before the enemy can react. That is the reality of this war right now. 2/
Petraeus: I watched engagements in drone operation centers. A Russian soldier appears on screen.

If he is not back into cover very quickly — it is over. They use multiple surveillance drones, 5 to 10 minutes of battery life on station each. Then the suicide drones come. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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