Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 13 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Bolton: Trump could declare victory over Iran and pull out at any moment — and that’s a problem. The public was never prepared for regime change.

Many leaders since the Cold War assumed history had ended, but the world is still dangerous and requires serious strategy.

1/
Bolton: Trump often looks for an off-ramp. My concern is he may damage Iran but stop before regime change happens.

That would leave the same regime in power — wounded and more desperate for revenge. If he wasn’t ready to finish it, he shouldn’t have started the war.

2/
Bolton: Iran's regime rules by repression despite deep public anger.

The economy is collapsing, most young people want a different future, and many ethnic groups oppose the government.

If the regime can’t defend itself after these attacks, its days may be numbered.

3/
Bolton: I would not have started war with Iran unless the goal was regime change and there was the resolve to see it through.

I would tell Trump to stay the course. Persistence and patience are needed.

4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 18
Zelenskyy is considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

He may do so if he finds a successor who can ensure a smooth transfer and hold a stable defense along the 1,200 km front.

He will meet commanders this weekend to assess candidates, FT. 1/ Image
The crisis started after Syrsky gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to remove Fedorov, according to Fedorov.

Zelenskyy said the two men no longer spoke directly without him mediating. 2/
Fedorov said Syrsky blocked defense ministry reforms.

He argued Ukraine needs new senior military leadership to fight Russia asymmetrically, with drones, automation and fewer losses. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 17
A British coder built the world's first network of fully autonomous drones for the Ukrainian army on paternity leave, in his garden shed, with his baby daughter in a papoose.

Gui Wainwright's AI software now kills Russian soldiers without any human interaction, The Times. 1/ Image
Wainwright: "Russia has an asymmetric advantage — its ability to throw men at Ukraine because it doesn't value human life.

Eventually, one man in a bunker with a computer could field 10,000 drones simultaneously and hold 1,000 miles of land."

2/
Ukraine didn't need new drones. It needed its existing drones to be made autonomous.

Wainwright's solution is hardware-agnostic. Rapid to scale, cheap to deploy, and unjammable because the drones receive no signal at all.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
Saam, ex Russian soldier now fighting for Ukraine: In most cases, the task in the Russian army is to die.

There is often no concrete objective — take a height, clear an area, or hold a position. Just go forward. 1/
Saam: Many Russian soldiers receive less than two days of training.

They are taken to units and assigned roles by “buyers”: machine gunner, grenade launcher operator, almost even helicopter pilot — though they may never have seen the weapon they are supposed to use. 2/
Saam: In the Russian army, I saw no brotherhood. Everyone tries to survive by any means.

You cannot go forward because death may be waiting there. You cannot go back because death is certainly waiting behind you. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
Ratcliffe, CIA Director: A Russian recruit’s average life expectancy in Ukraine is estimated at 20–30 minutes.

AI-powered drones have become low-cost killing machines, showing that mastery of technology is now as important as military strength. 1/
Ratcliffe: Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine when I became CIA director 18 months ago. Today it holds 20%.

Ukraine’s mastery of drones and asymmetric warfare has nearly stopped Russia’s advance, showing how emerging technologies can equalize the battlefield. 2X
Source:

Read 4 tweets
Jul 17
I told BBC that people in Kyiv are surprised, annoyed, disappointed with the government reshuffle, but not angry.

The reshuffle won’t affect Zelenskyy’s popularity either way. And student protests are real, but not anti-Zelenskyy. They want Fedorov back.

1/
Me: For students, Fedorov is an icon and a cultural role model. He represents youth and the new generation.

They love him and are really sad he is gone.

2/
Me: There is an open conflict between Syrskyi [Сommander-in-chief] and Fedorov.

The cabinet reshuffle triggered the dismissal of the Ministry of Defense. Some people say the reshuffle was just a pretext to remove Fedorov.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
Kasparov: Putin could launch an incursion into Latvia or Estonia to test NATO after Russia’s September election.

He has always escalated when he felt he was in trouble. The most likely next escalation is a provocation, Politico. 1/ Image
Kasparov: There is no sign in Russian propaganda, government actions or Putin’s speeches that Moscow is preparing for peace: War, war, war, war. 2/
Kasparov: Russia does not need a full-scale invasion to undermine NATO. Moscow could seize a small border town, possibly with a Russian-speaking population, and wait for the response.

If the US failed to help defend it, NATO is no longer there. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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