Bolton: Trump could declare victory over Iran and pull out at any moment — and that’s a problem. The public was never prepared for regime change.
Many leaders since the Cold War assumed history had ended, but the world is still dangerous and requires serious strategy.
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Bolton: Trump often looks for an off-ramp. My concern is he may damage Iran but stop before regime change happens.
That would leave the same regime in power — wounded and more desperate for revenge. If he wasn’t ready to finish it, he shouldn’t have started the war.
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Bolton: Iran's regime rules by repression despite deep public anger.
The economy is collapsing, most young people want a different future, and many ethnic groups oppose the government.
If the regime can’t defend itself after these attacks, its days may be numbered.
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Bolton: I would not have started war with Iran unless the goal was regime change and there was the resolve to see it through.
I would tell Trump to stay the course. Persistence and patience are needed.
4X
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Historian Niall Ferguson: Magyar’s victory over Orbán is good not because the left defeated the right.
What happened is that a non-corrupt populist who is not a lackey of Putin and Xi defeated one who became both corrupt and a lackey of our adversaries. 1/
Ferguson: This is a great day not just for Hungary. It is a great day for Ukraine and for everybody who believes in liberty.
If populists can lose elections, they are not fascists. There is hope here for Europe and for the wider democratic world. 2X
Petraeus: The [Hormuz] blockade was the right call. Ending this war with Iran militarily wrecked but still controlling Hormuz would leave Tehran strategically stronger.
We cannot let Iran decide who sails the strait or turn it into a private Panama Canal and charge tolls. 1/
Petraeus: The benchmark is not insurance cost. It is whether crews live.
CEOs told me they will not send sailors into that risk, and about eight crew members have already been killed by Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf. That alone is enough to freeze traffic. 2/
Petraeus: Two red lines dominate the talks: Hormuz must be restored as an untaxed international waterway, and Iran must give up the roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium.
That is one turn away from weapons grade. The pressure has to continue. 3X
Bolton: I’m not sure Trump knows where he is, because I’m not sure he knew what his objectives were going in.
If you do not know where you are going, any road will do. He wants this over, but because he does not think strategically, he is at a loss over what to do next. 1/
Bolton: The only long-term answer to Iran threat is regime change. New faces are not a new regime.
The ideology is the same. Trump failed to do what a serious regime-change effort required before hostilities, but he still has time to work with and resource Iran’s opponents. 2/
Bolton: It is impossible for me to believe Trump was not told Iran would try to shut Hormuz. Everybody knew that threat was there.
The danger is not just mines. It is anti-ship missiles, fast boats, and drones. Better late than never, but this should have been hit earlier. 3X
NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/
Zelenskyy has “lost 80% of his illusions” about Trump’s support. Ukrainians believe they are holding their own militarily and that any resolution “will take place on the battlefield, if at all.” 2/
Trump and his team are preoccupied with Iran. Witkoff and Kushner are planning another trip to Moscow — again without stopping in Kyiv. Zelenskyy said this week: “It’s disrespectful to come to Moscow and not Kyiv. It’s just disrespectful.” 3/
Russian soldiers are eating each other — literally. The Sunday Times reports that Ukrainian intelligence documented at least five cases of cannibalism among Russian troops due to starvation and Ukrainian drone strikes on supply lines. 1/
The most detailed documented case: November 2025, Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast. A soldier with the call sign Khromoy from the 95th Regiment of the 5th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade killed two comrades, cut off the leg of one of them and tried to eat it. 2/
When two other soldiers came to check on his absence, he opened fire on them. They shot him dead. A photograph analyzed with AI image detection software showed the severed leg. An independent conflict surgeon confirmed the wound was made with a sharp knife, not an explosion. 3/
Petraeus: Iran is unquestionably much weaker militarily.
The US and Israel have badly damaged its leadership, missile and drone production, navy, air force, air defenses, security headquarters, logistics bases, and further damaged the nuclear program. 1/
Petraeus: Military objectives largely have been met, but Iran could still emerge strategically stronger if Hormuz stays shut.
It cannot be acceptable for Iran to turn the strait into an “Iranian canal” and charge tolls for ships going in and out. 2/
Petraeus: Reopening Hormuz is a very challenging mission.
The defender has to be perfect, while the attacker only has to succeed every few days to destroy confidence. Hit two or three ships, and owners decide they are not taking that risk. 3/