Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 13 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Bolton: Trump could declare victory over Iran and pull out at any moment — and that’s a problem. The public was never prepared for regime change.

Many leaders since the Cold War assumed history had ended, but the world is still dangerous and requires serious strategy.

1/
Bolton: Trump often looks for an off-ramp. My concern is he may damage Iran but stop before regime change happens.

That would leave the same regime in power — wounded and more desperate for revenge. If he wasn’t ready to finish it, he shouldn’t have started the war.

2/
Bolton: Iran's regime rules by repression despite deep public anger.

The economy is collapsing, most young people want a different future, and many ethnic groups oppose the government.

If the regime can’t defend itself after these attacks, its days may be numbered.

3/
Bolton: I would not have started war with Iran unless the goal was regime change and there was the resolve to see it through.

I would tell Trump to stay the course. Persistence and patience are needed.

4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 13
Russia built a new secret assassination unit after GRU Unit 29155 was burned across Europe.

Center 795 was designed to be harder to trace, more autonomous, able to do from battlefield sabotage in Ukraine to killing abroad.

It was compromised by Google Translate, The Insider. 1/ Image
Center 795 was created in Dec 2022 by Russia’s General Staff as Military Unit 75127.

Unlike Unit 29155, it reported directly to Valery Gerasimov and was built as a “full-cycle” shadow army handling intelligence, surveillance, sabotage, and assassination. 2/
The unit was embedded inside Kalashnikov Concern at Patriot Park outside Moscow. Officers were put on the Kalashnikov payroll.

Training was disguised as “test shooting” linked to arms production. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 13
Petr Ruzavin, Russian journalist, now fights for Ukraine: As a Russian, you exhaust all tools that could have influenced anything.

I worked as a journalist for 15 years. But against the backdrop of war, you question how significant your profession is.

1/
Q: Did you cut off your Russian identity by joining Ukraine's army?

Ruzavin: I am Russian. I never stopped being Russian. This is a new chapter — I was a journalist, now I am military. My answer to responsibility: I fight for Ukraine.

2/
Q: From what I hear, soldiers on both sides often don't physically hate each other and don't want to kill.

Ruzavin: Strange thesis. In the Ukrainian army, people work 24/7 — hold positions, deliver supplies.

Your friends get killed, so most develop hatred.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
Hegseth: Iran has plenty of cameras and voice recorders. So why only a written statement from the new supreme leader?

His father is dead. Mojtaba Khamenei is injured, scared, and on the run. He lacks legitimacy — and no one may even know who is in charge.

1/
Hegseth: Iran has no real air defenses, air force, or navy left. Their missiles, launchers, and drones are being destroyed.

Missile attacks are down about 90%, and one-way attack drones dropped about 95%.

2/
Hegseth: Iran’s military is shrinking. But the key point is they can’t rebuild it.

Missile factories and defense companies across Iran have been destroyed. Their ballistic missile production is effectively gone.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
Bessent: India buying Russian oil was inevitable. That’s why we gave a 30-day waiver.

The oil was already on the water and refineries needed supply. Otherwise it would have gone to China. It’s unfortunate Russia benefits, but we hope only for a short time.

1/
Bessent: Our actions were not about China. They were about U.S. interests. Venezuela had become close to a failed narco-state.

The goal is to protect the Western Hemisphere and support Latin American countries moving toward market economies and closer ties with the U.S.

2/
Bessent: When I flew to Argentina last spring, we had to avoid Bolivia because it had closed its airspace to U.S. military aircraft.

Now Bolivia is becoming an ally again. Chile also shifted back. This is a chance to strengthen economic and security ties with the U.S.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
Petraeus: Iran only needs to attack once or twice a day to scare shipping companies. The risk is people’s lives, not the ships.

Some oil can bypass the Gulf, but only about 5–6 million barrels. Normally about 20 million barrels a day go through the Gulf.

1/
Petraeus: The key question is whether cracks appear inside Iran’s regime as the country is damaged around them.

But the leadership may see survival alone as victory — even if everything else is destroyed.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
Shtilierman, Co-founder of Fire Point, Ukraine’s biggest private drone maker: Russia is a monocentric state — everything revolves around Moscow.

Strikes in remote regions don’t affect the leadership. Real pressure comes from hitting military and industrial targets in Moscow.

1/
Shtilierman: FP-9 ballistic missile could hit targets in Moscow due to extreme speed. Over 10,000 m/s vs 800 m/s for an Iskander.
That makes air defenses far harder to stop, with some still breaking through. Cruise missiles or drones can’t strike major targets in Moscow today.2/
Shtilierman: I saw there was demand for deep strikes inside Russia after drones hit a Moscow business center housing a ministry.

When I saw how much those drones cost, I realized we could build them two or three times cheaper — so we did.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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