The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Mar 14 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Risk appetite among Gen Z is through the roof:

80% of Gen Z investors say they invest, or plan to invest, in high-risk speculative assets because they feel financially behind, the highest proportion among all generations.

This is followed by 75% of Millennials, 66% of Gen X, and 51% of Boomers and older.

Overall, the average response for US adults is 73%.

This comes as ~33% of Gen Z say they are putting money into, or considering, sports betting to reach financial goals faster.

8 out of 10 think these speculative vehicles can get them to where they want to be more quickly than traditional investment methods.

Just 50% of those surveyed said they feel financially secure.

Financial hardship is forcing record speculation.Image

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Mar 19
Global oil markets are out of control:

As the Iran War closes week 3, US oil prices are trading at $97/barrel, up +76% since December.

Meanwhile, physical oil prices in Oman are up to a RECORD $167/barrel, a +72% PREMIUM.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
This chart compares Brent (global oil) to WTI Crude (US oil).

When the Iran War began on February 28th, US oil prices surged toward $120/barrel while Brent lagged, trading at a ~20% discount to WTI Crude.

However, just two weeks later, and Brent hit a +15% premium to US oil. Image
In fact, Brent's premium over WTI Crude is trading at its widest margin in 11+ years.

And, it gets worse. Oman's oil prices are at $167, Dubai's at $137, and Brent at $113, while WTI Crude sits at $97, per Zerohedge.

Never have we seen such a massive divergence, but why? Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 28
The Strait of Hormuz situation:

Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.

If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

This body of water controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.

In other words, ONE FIFTH of global oil consumption flows through here EVERY DAY. Image
After US strikes on Iran last night, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are now receiving warnings.

As of 12:30 PM ET, the US has recommended ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

In their 2025 analysis, JP Morgan described this as their worst case scenario in an Israel-Iran war. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 20
It's official:

In one of the most anticipated rulings in decades, the US Supreme Court has ruled President Trump's "emergency" tariffs ILLEGAL.

This exposes the Trump Admin to a potential $175+ BILLION in "tariff refunds."

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
After 5+ months, the Supreme Court's ruling was released.

The Court ruled IEEPA does NOT authorize the President to impose tariffs.

IEEPA is the law Trump used to impose tariffs, which gives him "special economic powers" during a national emergency involving foreign threats. Image
The market's initial reaction has been positive, but not that strong.

The S&P 500 rose nearly +1% and silver prices are up +5%, but that's a fairly muted reaction to such a big ruling.

But, why?

As we explain below: there is much more to this ruling than the headline. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 5
What is happening in crypto?

Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.

Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.

Why is it crashing? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As of 8:00 AM ET today, Bitcoin has officially erased its post-election rally.

Yet, over the last 60 days, the fundamental picture for crypto is actually vastly unchanged.

This is why many investors are confused.

Why is crypto crashing if the fundamental picture is unchanged? Image
The answer to this question requires going back to October 10th.

The most recent TOP in crypto came on October 6th, just 4 days before the -$19.5 billion record liquidation.

Something structural appears to have shifted on October 10th.

And, markets never truly recovered. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
This is unprecedented:

If President Trump acquires Greenland and "controls" Venezuela, the US would gain control of 1.2 MILLION square miles of land.

This is ~42% larger than the Louisiana Purchase, the largest US acquisition ever.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
It was an incredibly busy weekend.

On Saturday, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on eight European countries amid his push for Greenland.

Trump says these tariffs rise to 25% on June 1st.

They will remain until a deal is reached for "complete and total purchase of Greenland.” Image
The result was a series of escalations on the trade front and the EU threatening to retaliate.

Now, the EU Parliament is looking to end the 2025 US-EU trade deal.

Trump proceeded to double down, saying US acquiring Greenland is "imperative for national and world security." Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 7
Trump is going after the US housing market:

President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors.

Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For years, investors have been upping purchases of single-family homes in the US.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020, investors saw purchases account for ~14% of transactions.

Now, that share is up to ~27% as the market has become increasingly unaffordable for buyers. Image
As a result, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has surged to a record 40 years old.

This is up from a median age of 33 years old in 2021 and 29 in 1981.

But the question now becomes:

Is this the result of large institutional funds buying houses? Image
Read 12 tweets

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