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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 15 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Russia is building a digital fortress — North Korea-scale, but nuclear-armed and 15 times larger.

The Kremlin banned Facebook, Instagram, YouTube. Now Telegram is next.

The replacement: MAX, a state-surveillance messenger modeled on China’s WeChat —Politico. 1/

On Feb. 4, SpaceX tightened Starlink authentication. Russian satellite internet traffic in Ukraine dropped 75%.

Battlefield coordination collapsed. Russia started laying fiber-optic cables to the front. 2/

Days later, Roskomnadzor began slowing Telegram across Russia.

April plan: block it entirely.

Anton, a Russian drone repair officer: “All military work goes through Telegram. That would be like shooting the entire Russian army in the head.” 3/

Pro-war volunteer networks use Telegram to fundraise for vehicles, fuel, armor, and evacuation equipment.

Ivan Philippov, who tracks Russian military bloggers: “If you break Telegram inside Russia, you break fundraising.” 4/

Already blocked or restricted: WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, LinkedIn, FaceTime, Snapchat, X, Signal, Discord, Viber.

On March 3 a new law took effect allowing the FSB to order telecom operators to cut cellular and fixed internet. 5/

The Kremlin’s replacement is MAX — launched March 2025, built by VK, integrated with state services and subject to Russian data-retention laws.

Schools and employers are steering users toward it. Elena: “It works badly. Messages are delayed. Notifications don’t come.” 6/

Russia’s censorship system is not China’s Great Firewall. It operates internally — deep packet inspection equipment installed inside every provider, slowing traffic without formally banning it.
7/

Mikhail Klimarev, internet Protection Society: “It’s not one wall. It’s thousands of fences. You climb one, then there’s another.”

In September Russia banned VPN advertising. In February the first case was opened against a media outlet for promoting a VPN service. 8/

Even Kremlin allies are alarmed. Sergei Mironov, leader of Just Russia party, called the regulators behind the Telegram slowdown “idiots” on February 11 — warning the restrictions could cost soldiers’ lives. Pro-war bloggers call the blocking “sabotage of the war effort.” 9/

Alexander Gabuev, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: digital isolation could turn Russia into a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China.

A complete internet shutdown is possible. But if they do that, the internet won’t be the main problem anymore. 10X

Source: [politico.com/news/2026/03/1…](politico.com/news/2026/03/1…)

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

Fiona Hill: Trump still does not really listen to experts.

In the Iran crisis, he is sending out people with little high-level negotiating experience while believing he knows better than everybody. His gut, not expertise, is what drives decisions. 1/

Hill: Tactically the US campaign has been successful. Strategically it is a blunder because Trump did not understand Iran.

He assumed a top-down system like Russia or China, but Iran is resilient, deeply embedded, and full of people fighting for their lives. 2/

Hill: Hormuz was not unpredictable. Prior leaders knew Iran would do something there.

Trump ignored that risk and has now created something even larger than the 2008 financial crisis. This is not just his own mess. It is a global catastrophe. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

A pastry chef from Bucha spends her days making cakes — and her nights shooting down Russian drones.

Lyudmyla Lysenko joined a volunteer air defense unit after returning to a destroyed city in April 2022. “Bucha looked like a zombie apocalypse,” — UkrPravda. 1/

By day she holds a mixer. By night — a machine gun.

She now commands a mobile fire group in the “Bucha Witches,” a unit created in 2024 to hunt Shahed drones over Kyiv region. 2/

Every shift starts at 8am.

They check weapons, count ammo, inspect vehicles. When the alarm sounds, they deploy fast, set up guns, track drones, and open fire. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

Mood in Russia turns bleak.

Putin’s support is falling as war fatigue, economic decline, and repression converge.

Approval dropped to 65.6%, down 12.2pp this year. Economy shrank 1.8% in 2 months. Interest rates peaked above 20%. Businesses owe $109B in unpaid bills, WP. 1/

“This has been going on longer than World War II… and we can’t even take one region,” a Russian official says.

War enters year 5 with no decisive gains, while talks stall and expectations of quick victory collapse. 2/

439,900 companies owe taxes. Inflation surged 77% since 2015 while GDP growth averaged ~1.5% per year, widening the gap between prices and incomes. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.

Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/

Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.

The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/

Volumes rose, but revenues surged faster.

Oil exports increased ~16%, while seaborne crude revenues jumped ~115% in Mar, as global prices climbed and Urals discounts narrowed. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

Ukrainian combat veterans are now training German troops for a future war with Russia.

Frontline soldiers arrived in Germany before Easter to train Bundeswehr units in drone warfare and modern combat, as Berlin prepares for a possible Russian attack by 2029, Kyiv Post. 1/

Training runs across core combat schools.

Ukrainians teach at tank, engineer, and unmanned systems centers, with artillery schools next. Focus: drone use, protection, and integration into armored and artillery units. 2/

Instructors are not theorists.

“These are not staff officers,” Freuding says — they are soldiers with direct battlefield experience, the only force in Europe with large-scale combat experience against Russia. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 29

Bolton: The US military did sink all Iranian mine-laying ships. But Iran is using fast boats, each carrying one mine and able to swarm tankers with man-portable rockets.

Trump has said for weeks the Iranian navy was destroyed. Except for these boats. 1/

Bolton: I wouldn't have entered into this ceasefire — it purely benefits Iran. They were getting pounded for six weeks.

When the bombing stops, they regroup and reorganize. Military pressure is what moved Iran at all. When you relent — they see American weakness. 2/

Bolton, on Trump's claim of regime change in Iran: It obviously hasn't happened. The Revolutionary Guard holds what they call purification campaigns to ensure no deviations from what the ayatollahs dictated.

That's not regime change. 3/