Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 15 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Russia is building a digital fortress — North Korea-scale, but nuclear-armed and 15 times larger.

The Kremlin banned Facebook, Instagram, YouTube. Now Telegram is next.

The replacement: MAX, a state-surveillance messenger modeled on China’s WeChat —Politico. 1/ Image
On Feb. 4, SpaceX tightened Starlink authentication. Russian satellite internet traffic in Ukraine dropped 75%.

Battlefield coordination collapsed. Russia started laying fiber-optic cables to the front. 2/
Days later, Roskomnadzor began slowing Telegram across Russia.

April plan: block it entirely.

Anton, a Russian drone repair officer: “All military work goes through Telegram. That would be like shooting the entire Russian army in the head.” 3/
Pro-war volunteer networks use Telegram to fundraise for vehicles, fuel, armor, and evacuation equipment.

Ivan Philippov, who tracks Russian military bloggers: “If you break Telegram inside Russia, you break fundraising.” 4/
Already blocked or restricted: WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, LinkedIn, FaceTime, Snapchat, X, Signal, Discord, Viber.

On March 3 a new law took effect allowing the FSB to order telecom operators to cut cellular and fixed internet. 5/
The Kremlin’s replacement is MAX — launched March 2025, built by VK, integrated with state services and subject to Russian data-retention laws.

Schools and employers are steering users toward it. Elena: “It works badly. Messages are delayed. Notifications don’t come.” 6/
Russia’s censorship system is not China’s Great Firewall. It operates internally — deep packet inspection equipment installed inside every provider, slowing traffic without formally banning it.
7/
Mikhail Klimarev, internet Protection Society: “It’s not one wall. It’s thousands of fences. You climb one, then there’s another.”

In September Russia banned VPN advertising. In February the first case was opened against a media outlet for promoting a VPN service. 8/
Even Kremlin allies are alarmed. Sergei Mironov, leader of Just Russia party, called the regulators behind the Telegram slowdown “idiots” on February 11 — warning the restrictions could cost soldiers’ lives. Pro-war bloggers call the blocking “sabotage of the war effort.” 9/
Alexander Gabuev, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: digital isolation could turn Russia into a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China.

A complete internet shutdown is possible. But if they do that, the internet won’t be the main problem anymore. 10X
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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 15
Kasparov: Putin is not simply fighting Ukraine.

It’s a war against Europe. Might is right — that’s what Putin believes in.

Ukraine is the main obstacle, but the conflict he sees is with Europe and the values of the free world. 1/
Kasparov: Dictators often say exactly what they plan to do.

Putin tested the West repeatedly, and saw limited consequences: Georgia, Crimea, Syria.

For authoritarian leaders, hesitation from democracies is interpreted as weakness and encouragement. 2/
Kasparov: Putin has said openly what he wants.

He called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” and demanded NATO return to its 1997 borders — effectively pushing Eastern Europe and the Baltic states back into Russia’s sphere of influence. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 15
6,000+ foreign firms supplied Russian defense companies between 2024 and 2025. 4,000 of them are Chinese, 61% of the total. Chinese suppliers include drone controllers and batteries.

China calls itself neutral. The US calls it a "decisive enabler" — Newsweek.
1/ Image
Chinese suppliers: Teyni Technology and Telperin — electronic components. Longking International Trade — tracked vehicles. Sky Tech — gas turbine engines.

Turkey supplies 5% of dual-use goods. Hong Kong — 3%. UAE — 2%. China dominates by a factor of 12 to the next largest.

2/
Many Chinese firms operate as shell companies. Shutting them down creates only brief disruptions.

The Insider: if Western authorities sanctioned several thousand suppliers at once, it could inflict serious damage on Russia's military production.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 15
Ukraine is expanding the battlefield without sending more soldiers into it.

A massive drone campaign is choking Russian logistics and tripling the “kill zone” behind the front line, making large areas deadly for Russian troops and equipment, Telegraph. 1/ Image
Ukraine knows it cannot match Russia’s manpower.

Instead of sending troops into costly assaults, Kyiv is relying on precision, patience and technology to slow Russian advances and control the battlefield with drones. 2/
Ukrainian drones now strike up to 93 miles behind the front line.

Just weeks ago the reach was about 31 miles. The “kill zone” — where Russian troops and vehicles can be hit — has expanded threefold in some sectors. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 15
CNN: Kyiv-Washington talks after sanctions easing?

Me: Ukraine is upset about lifting US sanctions on Russian oil. It will give Russia billions that go into missile production and aggression, meaning people will be killed. While the effect on oil prices is minimal or unclear. 1/
Me: At the same time, Ukraine is helping the US allies with drone production, delivery, and training. Specifically interceptor drones that shoot down Iranian Shaheds.

These are the two main lines of discussion now. 2/
CNN: Ukraine supporting Gulf states with drone expertise?

Me: What I heard from partners and colleagues: everyone is in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and across the region offering expertise and trainers. Officers explain how Shahed tactics and deployment can be counteracted. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 15
On March 13, 2022, Russian soldiers shot and killed photojournalist Max Levin.

He had driven through Moshchun — a village under intense fighting — to find a drone with valuable footage he had lost the day before. He was 40 years old. 4 years have passed since that day. 1/ Image
Max Levin covered the war since 2014. He worked for Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, hromadske.

Colleagues said he wanted to be where real history was being written. And real history, in his view, was written at war. 2/
In Donbas he thrived.

He slept with soldiers in dugouts. He would leave colleagues in safer places and go further himself. He never let anyone follow him to the front line. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15
Orban built a parallel intellectual universe for Europe. Websites, think-tanks, conferences, a palace in Brussels — all funded by Budapest, all singing the same song.

The Economist calls it the Budapest Megaphone. 1/ Image
The core is Mathias Corvinus Collegium — endowed with $1bn+ in assets in 2020, including stakes in Hungary’s national oil company, chaired by a close Orban aide.

Its Brussels arm is already among the best-funded think-tanks in the city. 2/
Brussels Signal celebrates every populist gain in Europe. Carries no ads, sells no subscriptions. Created by a former Fidesz adviser.

Hungary House opened in Brussels in 2024, immediately hosted a book launch for French politician Jordan Bardella. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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