On March 3 a new law took effect allowing the FSB to order telecom operators to cut cellular and fixed internet. 5/
The Kremlin’s replacement is MAX — launched March 2025, built by VK, integrated with state services and subject to Russian data-retention laws.
Schools and employers are steering users toward it. Elena: “It works badly. Messages are delayed. Notifications don’t come.” 6/
Russia’s censorship system is not China’s Great Firewall. It operates internally — deep packet inspection equipment installed inside every provider, slowing traffic without formally banning it.
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Mikhail Klimarev, internet Protection Society: “It’s not one wall. It’s thousands of fences. You climb one, then there’s another.”
In September Russia banned VPN advertising. In February the first case was opened against a media outlet for promoting a VPN service. 8/
Even Kremlin allies are alarmed. Sergei Mironov, leader of Just Russia party, called the regulators behind the Telegram slowdown “idiots” on February 11 — warning the restrictions could cost soldiers’ lives. Pro-war bloggers call the blocking “sabotage of the war effort.” 9/
Alexander Gabuev, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: digital isolation could turn Russia into a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China.
A complete internet shutdown is possible. But if they do that, the internet won’t be the main problem anymore. 10X
Nixon, 1983: Russians can be trusted only if we make agreements which are in their interest to keep, self-enforcing agreements.
Only if everything we do with them is linked to something that will cost them if they break the agreement. 1/
Nixon: In dealing with Russians, it doesn't mean that we have to lie and cheat, but we must be aware that they will when they can get away with it.
You can deal with them and they will keep a deal if you make it on the basis that will serve their interests and ours. 2/
Nixon: The Marshall Plan was offered to the communist countries as well as to the European countries. The Soviet wouldn't take it and wouldn't let their Eastern European satellites take it.
Eisenhower's Open Skies proposal in 1955, they turned that down. 3Х
Zelenskyy: War has no distance anymore. Drones already fly 3,000–5,000 km, soon up to 10,000.
Ukraine faces 350–500 drone attacks daily. No country could withstand that. There are no safe continents — distance is now a matter of months, not decades.
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Zelenskyy: Drones could become nuclear.
Drones are just carriers and in the hands of nuclear states like Russia, that makes them especially dangerous.
WSJ: Iran blocked Hormuz to force Trump to end the war early. Trump has two choices — back down or escalate. He is signaling escalation.
Five-step plan to reopen the Strait: degrade, surveil, air cover, helicopters, Aegis destroyers. 1/
Step 1: Degrade Iranian missiles, mines, drones and unmanned surface vessels to a “militarily manageable risk.” This is already underway — air defenses and navy infrastructure targeted first. 2/
Step 2: Maintain “an unblinking eye” — surveillance covering 50 miles on either side of the Strait and 100 miles back. No Iranian movement goes undetected. 3/
Bolton: Trump doesn't know the value of what he's trading.
He'll give away something really important to get small item that benefits him in the short term. You're either in an alliance or you're not. Trump doesn't understand the alliance concept. 1/
Bolton: The reality of two wars, one in Ukraine and one in Iran, show that we did not plan ahead adequately.
We did not foresee the enormous drain that wars at this level would cause. We should have had much bigger stockpiles, a bigger navy, a bigger air force. 2/
Bolton: I don't think eliminating the Ayatollah Khamenei was assassination. He was the commander-in-chief and therefore a legitimate military target. But it would defy logic not to think that the Iranian regime wouldn't try to respond. 3/
Snyder: Putin’s version of history is not really about the past.
If someone says how things were in the year 862 and that everything since then is wrong, that is not history. It is a way of talking about ambitions in the present. 1/
Snyder: The ironic thing about the Ukrainian war is that it is basically a world war in which only one country is fighting.
Because Ukraine has been successful in defending itself, the rest of us do not have to get that involved. So we try to deny Ukrainians agency. 2X
Snyder: The war in Ukraine is a global war. It involves all major powers, and how it ends will shape the arrangement of world power.
The war also concerns oil and gas, the ways we power the world, and the language, information and symbols through which we communicate. 1/
Snyder: WWII was indisputably a global war. From Hitler’s point of view, it was about Ukraine.
Like the present war, it reflected a longer history of colonialism. The war in Ukraine animated the analysis of totalitarianism that shaped how many understood the world after 1945. 2/
Snyder: The Holocaust has very much to do with Ukraine. Hitler believed the races living there were inferior and doomed to be starved out.
He also believed Jews ran the Soviet state and much of the world. The war to conquer Ukraine became central to the destruction of Jews. 3/