1/ Powerful interests in Russia are milking the war in Ukraine for profit and power, complains a Russian drone developer and blogger. He argues that the interests are indifferent to the loss of Russian lives and are ripping off the state defence procurement system. ⬇️
2/ 'UAV Developer' writes on Telegram: "You see, they couldn't care less about our victory."
3/ "They—a collective group of people in power, one of the towers [factions]—understand that the name of the Lord Special Military Operation can still be used to cover up any nonsense, and to call opponents foreign agents and enemies of the people.
4/ "This window of opportunity, one way or another, will soon slam shut—either we reach an agreement and get a pause for peace, or we don't reach an agreement and we'll have to fight like adults, and then their efforts will fade into the background.
5/ "Therefore, taking advantage of the situation, they've launched a reorganization of a whole host of areas, from the destruction of private livestock in Siberia under the pretext of infections, to the monopolisation of media coverage in the form of Telegram, and even to…
6/ …the private defence industry that's so dear to us.
Everyone in the know understands that payments from the Ministry of Defence are so problematic that the tax authorities are demanding taxes even when no revenue has been received yet (though the contracts have been signed).
7/ "And even if revenue were received, the 7%, or at most 13%, profit margin on state defence orders does not allow for the production of high-quality goods or the development of manufacturing.
8/ "As a result, the military is growing increasingly dissatisfied with the quality of products received from state defence contractors.
Consequently, contractors face economic penalties, and the most zealous are accused of embezzlement and inflating production costs.
9/ "One of the pillars supporting the entire state defence industry is the inflation of production costs, because that’s the only way to turn a profit with a 7% return.
10/ "And instead of doing things the right way (simply copying the American system), the cycle of mutual claims is being deliberately escalated to such an extent that, according to rumors, payments from the Ministry will only be received after full completion of…
11/ …the state defence order, and even then, it is unclear how long these payments will take.
In other words, you’ll have to invest your XXX million rubles in the products, deliver them on time, and then, maybe, get your 7% profit.
12/ "It's not hard to guess what this will lead to: the last remaining lunatics working in this fucked-up procurement system will quit, the most stupid and greedy will be demonstratively jailed, and the field will be cleared for those on the inside who can inflate their costs.
13/ "And the quality of their products will be absolutely satisfactory (read the details on MAX [the state-approved messenger app]). No one really cares how many soldiers we’ll lose as a result of this squabbling—soldiers we could have avoided losing.
14/ "It’s obvious that these guys consider the stream of contract soldiers to be inexhaustible and are eager to freeze the current cash flow as is. Just squeeze the freeloaders out of the system." /end
1/ Goldman Sachs analysts report that the biggest oil crisis in history is about to hit globally, with profound and highly destructive consequences. A new report asks ""Are We Running Out of Oil?", and concludes that the answer is yes. ⬇️
2/ Goldman reports that average daily flows of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 94% from their pre-war levels.
3/ This has led to a 63% collapse in the flow of oil and its refined products from the Middle East. Exports are down from 7.4 million to 2.8 million barrels per day of oil, 39% of which is flowing via a pipeline to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports.
1/ A shortage of drones reportedly means that Russian drone pilots often don't attack Ukrainian vehicles again after disabling them. This, says a serving Russian soldier, means that the Ukrainians are frequently able to retrieve disabled vehicles. ⬇️
2/ Russian forces in Ukraine have been complaining for a long time that they lack drones, with those provided by the Russian MOD being few and often of poor quality.
3/ Instead, they often have to rely on voluntary donations and unofficial drone production by the so-called 'people's military-industrial complex' – an ecosystem of enthusiasts and ex-military personnel who make or import drones for military use.
1/ News of the destruction of yet another US aircraft on the ground is being met with incredulity by Russian Air Force pilots. They ask if the United States has learned nothing from Russia's own very costly experiences. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel run by a group of Russian military helicopter pilots, expresses astonishment at pictures published overnight of a US CH-47 Chinook helicopter that was destroyed on the ground in Kuwait.
3/ "I look at this photo and realize that the Americans, with all their budgets and all, haven't studied or systematized our experience in any way.
1/ Russian army commanders are reportedly refusing to allow stored ZSU-23-4 Shilkas mobile anti-aircraft guns to be refurbished and put back into service, despite Russia's desperate need for more defences against Ukraine's increasingly large-scale drone strikes. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel written by three Russian Aerospace Force pilots, writes:
"I was talking to some guys from one of the repair battalions the other day."
3/ "They were showing us what Category 5 [the lowest condition] equipment they're getting off its knees with their own resources.
BMPs [armoured personnel carriers], BTS [armoured recovery tractors], and so on.
1/ Russia has "shot itself in the dick" with its block on Telegram, according to a scathing commentary. A Russian warblogger notes that pro-Kremlin propagandists have seen huge falls in views of their Telegram channels, but not dissident and pro-Ukraine channels. ⬇️
2/ Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Steshin calls it "a day of celebration for foreign agents, as the audience for pro-Russian channels on Telegram has plummeted."
3/ "Margarita Simonyan saw a 52.3% drop, while propagandist Alexander Sladkov saw a 49.4% drop. Views for ‘RT in Russian’ fell by 42%, whilst those for propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Pavel Zarubin fell by 47.2% and 42.7% respectively.
1/ In a further sign of an economic slump in Russia, the giant vehicle manufacturer AvtoVAZ will shut down production entirely for 17 days due to falling demand and overcrowded warehouses. Its vehicles aren't selling and storage facilities are overflowing. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports that AvtoVAZ will shut down its assembly lines for almost the entire period from 27 April to 17 May, with the workforce sent on mandatory leave.
3/ Workers will be sent to do maintenance work between 27-30 April, 12-13 May will be covered by a postponement of vacation days from December, and staff will be paid at two-thirds their normal salary on 14-15 May.