Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 18 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Stubb: The world order is being redrawn in a transition comparable to 1918, 1945 or 1989.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point, pushing the system into disorder where the future balance of power remains unclear. 1/
Stubb: US foreign policy is now shaped by MAGA and America First, making it more ideological and interest-driven.

Washington no longer consults allies as before, and the Iran strike exposed a shift away from coalition-based action. 2/
Stubb: NATO is a defensive alliance, not designed for wars of choice.

The US acted without allies, exposing tensions inside the alliance, while Russia remains the main security threat in Europe. 3/
Stubb: US strategy now ranks Europe below other regions, forcing Europeans to take more responsibility.

Rising oil prices and easing sanctions risk putting more money into Russia’s war machine as global instability deepens. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 18
In March 2022 Defense Minister Shoigu declared all objectives of the “special operation” completed.

In March 2026 Shoigu says no Russian region can feel safe. — GazetaRu

Everything is going according to “plan.” 1/ Image
Image
On March 17 Shoigu — now Security Council Secretary — spoke at a meeting in the Ural Federal District.

His exact words: “The pace of development of strike systems, primarily unmanned systems, and the sophistication of their use are such that no Russian region can feel safe.” 2/
Ukraine’s air attacks on Russian territory grew almost fourfold in one year.

In 2024 — 6,200 attacks. In 2025 — more than 23,000.

Primary targets: military facilities, transport infrastructure, and fuel and energy complexes. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 18
Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba: Trump sees Ukraine as an obstacle, not an asset.

His worldview is that smaller nations should submit to great powers — which is why he is not looking for a strong Ukraine and expects a ceasefire through Ukraine’s concessions. 1/
Kuleba: Ukraine cannot afford to come at odds with Washington, but Washington can with Ukraine.

Kyiv’s strategy is to stay engaged and positive, while refusing steps that cross red lines, because abandoning the U.S. relationship is not an option. 2/
Kuleba: The key to ending the war is not in Washington, but in Europe.

As long as Ukraine and Europe build military strength and stay united, even a deal between Trump and Putin cannot be enforced on them. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 18
Bolton: If Europe says Iran is not its war, Trump could respond that Ukraine is not America’s war.

That rhetoric risks weakening transatlantic support and could shift US commitments at a critical moment for European allies. 1/
Bolton: Trump launched the war without preparing Congress, allies or the public.

He did not build political support or organize opposition inside Iran, and failed to assemble a coalition before acting, weakening NATO coordination. 2/
Bolton: Europe is directly at risk from Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Tehran can already strike European targets and has been behind attacks across the continent, making the conflict a direct security issue for Europe. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18
Ukrainian political analyst Maria Zolkina: Trump is dragged into a longer Iran operation than expected with no results after weeks.

Returning to Ukraine talks is illogical now, and no breakthrough should be expected as previous negotiations brought no success. 1/
Zolkina: Criticism of Zelenskyy raises tensions but will not bring any deal closer.

Negotiations remain stuck with repeating positions, while pressure from Washington suggests a ceasefire should come through Ukraine’s concessions. 2/
Zolkina: Territorial concessions or withdrawal of Ukrainian forces are not on the agenda.

Trump needs visible success, but achieving it requires a weaker Ukraine, and he does not care who controls parts of Ukrainian regions. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 17
Russia’s shadow fleet is a danger for Europe’s security.

A damaged Russian tanker with fuel is a ticking time bomb drifting between Italy and Malta.

The crewless vessel Arctic Metagaz was hit by drones and now threatens environmental disaster, CNN. 1/ Image
The tanker carries a dangerous cargo: around 900 tons of diesel and more than 60,000 tons of liquefied natural gas remain onboard, while the vessel is listing with a large breach in its hull. 2/
The attack happened on Mar 3 in the central Mediterranean.

Russia claims Ukrainian maritime and aerial drones struck the ship in international waters. Ukraine has not commented. The crew abandoned ship after a fire and was evacuated. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 17
Nixon, 1983: Russians can be trusted only if we make agreements which are in their interest to keep, self-enforcing agreements.

Only if everything we do with them is linked to something that will cost them if they break the agreement. 1/
Nixon: In dealing with Russians, it doesn't mean that we have to lie and cheat, but we must be aware that they will when they can get away with it.

You can deal with them and they will keep a deal if you make it on the basis that will serve their interests and ours. 2/
Nixon: The Marshall Plan was offered to the communist countries as well as to the European countries. The Soviet wouldn't take it and wouldn't let their Eastern European satellites take it.

Eisenhower's Open Skies proposal in 1955, they turned that down. 3Х
Read 5 tweets

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