Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Mar 19 8 tweets 11 min read Read on X
The most definitive White House statement purporting to justify the Israel-US war on Iran was its March 2, 2026 statement entitled "The Iranian Regime's Decades of Terrorism against American Citizens".
whitehouse.gov/articles/2026/…

After a brief editorial opening, the article lists 44 incidents with a total of 992 US deaths. The source of the data wasn't given. Where did it come from?

Unlike the Iraq war or the Russia collusion allegation, the reporting didn't come from an intelligence assessment, flawed or otherwise.

It turns out that the list was plagiarized by the White House from a June 19, 2025 list (fdd.org/analysis/2025/…) prepared by a former AIPAC employee (Tzvi Kahn) for a think tank (FDD) founded "to provide education to enhance Israel's image in North America". The think tank's original identity was "EMET (Hebrew for 'truth')". The June 19, 2025 publication was literally on the eve of the first US bombing of Iran on June 21, 2025.

In this thread, I'll compare each and every item in the White House statement to the corresponding item in the original list by the former AIPAC employee. The list is virtually identical. Any slight changes are always in the change of ratcheting up the underlying allegation.
2/ Here's the first set of comparisons between the two documents. There are going to be about 7 pages of this. Note the more or less exact match of 5 incidents. Only the two grey outlined boxes don't match. The slight changes in the plagiarized White House version are occasionally in the direction of embellishment.Image
3/ the next six incidents match in both FDD and White House lists. The White House version adds "Iran-backed" in all six lists and made a firm attribution where FDD had noted "claimed responsibility". Image
4/ the next five incidents similarly match up to slight editorial.

Note the ratcheting up of attribution of Khobar Towers incident in Saudi Arabia in 1996. FDD said that Hezbollah al-Hejaz was "deemed responsible", while White House asserted as a fact. Clinton's Defense Secretary William Perry subsequently wondered (along with many others) whether Khobar Towers should have been attributed to Al Qaeda - see upi.com/Defense-News/2…

The attribution of Khobar Towers had a strange connection to Russia collusion hoax. Clinton administration had wrestled for years on attribution. The Saudi government had obtained confessions from Shia prisoners, but the then DC Attorney was skeptical and refused to charge. In the very early days of incoming Bush administration in 2001, while the incoming administration was disorganized, the then Acting Deputy Attorney General (Robert Mueller) transferred the case to EDVA where an ambitious AUSA (James Comey) took over the case and promptly (summer 2001) indicted Saudi Hezbollah operatives.

From time to time, I've wondered whether subsequent history might have unfolded differently if Mueller and Comey had spent as much time on Al Qaeda in their 2001 investigations as on the insubstantial Saudi Hezbollah.

I've also wondered whether Comey's experience with the powers displayed by an Acting Deputy Attorney General in February 2001 influenced his manipulations in February 2017 to recuse Sessions and put an Acting Deputy Attorney General (Dana Boente) in charge of the Russia collusion investigation in March 2017 in Comey's successful operation to institutionalize the investigation by announcing it to the public, thus precipitating the demand for a special counsel.Image
5/ the next five in the White House list correspond to FDD entries. The FDD author (formerly AIPAC) purported to attribute responsibility to Iran for a supposed role in 9/11. The White House didn't follow this.
The attribution of 603 military deaths in Iraq to "Iran-backed militias" is the largest single item (by far) in the entire list, accounting for 60% of the total attributed deaths. This attribution is not made in the State Department annual reports on Global Terrorism/ The attribution is also vigorously disputed by Matthew Hoh and Scott Horton, both of whom have subject matter expertise.Image
6/ picking up this thread, from yesterday, here are the next 8 entries ranging in date from 2003 to 2020, once again an exact match between FDD and the White House. Once again, the plagiarism is more or less total, up to minor changes in grammar and/or occasional further embellishment.

in regard to the August 2006 incident, the White House changed the term "Hezbollah fighters" to "Hezbollah terrorists". The incident pertained to the death of an IDF soldier during an IDF operation in southern Lebanon. Under State Department definitions of "terrorism", this death would be an act of war, not "terrorism". Nor can this death be attributed to an attack on an //American// as an American. It was a death of a soldier fighting for the IDF in Lebanon.
It is also the ONLY death in this list attributed to Hezbollah since the 1980s.

There is a change in the date attributed to the Robert Levinson death: the White House uses the 2007 date of his disappearance vs FDD date of 2020 when the family announced his death. Levinson is the ONLY death in the entire FDD/White House compendium in which the death is attributed to //Iran// rather than ostensible proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias). Levinson was arrested in Iran while carrying out espionage as an agent for the CIA. There doesn't seem to be any doubt about this. So the classification of this incident as "terrorism" is very questionable. A larger question is why US negotiators failed to obtain Levinson's release. There is also a strange backstory about efforts by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska on behalf of the FBI to obtain Levinson's release. Deripaska apparently spent millions of dollars on this effort. Deripaska was later interviewed by Mueller investigation and sanctioned by US government during Trump administration in April 2018. In his efforts to get the sanctions revoked, Deripaska unwisely hired Charles McGonigal, a retired (crooked) FBI agent who, as an FBI agent, had received cash bribes by Albanian mobsters.

The July 14, 2014 incident involved two Americans serving in the IDF. The underlying newspaper reporting said that the two Americans were members of the "elite Golani brigade" and "were among 13 Israeli soldiers and 65 Palestinians who died during the first major ground battle in two weeks of fighting between Israel and Hamas." This isn't "terrorism" under State Department (or any legal) definition.

The JCPOA was signed in July 2015. The only listed incident between the signing of the JCPOA and its termination by first Trump administration was the murder in the West Bank of an Israeli, a former member of the IDF Golani Brigade, and his wife. The Israeli (born in Jerusalem) was the son of US immigrants. His death does not appear to have been an attack on him as an //American// but as an Israeli who was also a settler in the West Bank.

The next incident (December 2019) cited a contemporary Reuters article reuters.com/article/world/… as authority for the assertion that "Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah terrorists killed an American civilian contractor and wounded several U.S. service members in a rocket attack at K1 Air Base in Kirkuk, Iraq." However, the source article stated that "No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Islamic State militants operating in the area have turned to insurgency-style tactics aimed at bringing down the government in Baghdad ever since it retook all territory and declared victory against them in December 2017. However, a senior U.S. military official said this month that attacks by Iranian-backed groups on bases hosting U.S. forces in Iraq were gathering pace and becoming more sophisticated, pushing all sides closer to an uncontrollable escalation."

This questionably attributed incident was escalated by first Trump administration into the assassination of Qassem Soleimani a few weeks later.

Two days later (Dec 29, 2019), U.S. launched "defensive" airstrikes on five weapons depots and command sites in western Iraq and Syria operated by Kata'ib Hezbollah, serving as units within the Iraqi military in the western Iraqi desert against ISIS (notwithstanding the derogatory FDD and White House description as "Iran-backed"). The attack by US on a supposed ally killed at least 25 militiamen and wounded ~55 more. Previous attacks on Iraqi (or Syrian) military serving in western Iraq and Syria against ISIS had been carried out by Israel, not US.

Needless to say, the surprise US attack on Iraqi troops prompted an enraged reaction from the Iraqi public, who besieged the US embassy in Baghdad within hours of the news. When Qassem Soleimani traveled to Iraq to try to resolve the situation, he was assassinated by US while he was meeting with Iraqi general al-Muhandis.

The notion that US had not sufficiently retaliated for the death of a contractor in Kirkuk is obviously untrue.

In response to the assassination of Soleimani, Iran retaliated with a telegraphed missile attack on the US Ain el-Assad military base, in which no one was killed. Trump immediately announced "I'm pleased to inform you: The American people should be extremely grateful and happy no Americans were harmed in last night's attack by the Iranian regime." "No Americans were harmed in last night's attack." "Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world." Complaints about percussive injuries accumulated over the next month.

The Iranian attack on the Ain el-Assad base (in which no one was killed) is the only direct action by Iranian military in the entire FDD-White House list. It was a direct, limited and apparently choreographed response to the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani, following which the then US president (Trump) pronounced that the matter was settled. The present FDD-White House claim that these were unresolved grievances that warranted a war of revenge is unfounded.Image
7/ the next nine incidents, dating between Sept 2020 and Jan 2024, are plagiarized almost word for word.

Seven of these nine incidents involve incidents attributed to Iraqi factions (described as "Iran-backed "militias") subsequent to the US air attack on Iraqi military (fighting ISIS) in western Iraq in December 2019 and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi general al-Muhandis in January 2020.

The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack is one of the incidents. At the time, then Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated that there was "no 'direct evidence' that Iran was involved in the Hamas attack on Israel".

Not mentioned in the White House statement was the evidence that the largest financial supporter of Hamas was Qatar, under arrangements made by the Netanyahu government as early as 2018.

Qatar made monthly transfers to Hamas of up to $360 million annually, with cumulative aid since 2012 estimated to exceed $1.8 billion. It was a larger contributor to Hamas than Iran, but, for some reason, has never been listed by State Department as a "state sponsor" of terror. (Qatar and other Gulf monarchies are also believed to have been major sponsors of the jihadis involved in the Syrian civil war for so many years). : CNN Report: "Qatar sent millions to Gaza for years – with Israel's backing" (December 2023); New York Times: "'Buying Quiet': Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas" (December 2023); Reuters: "Who funds Hamas? A global network of crypto, cash and charities" (October 2023),Image
Image
Image
8/ here is the final slide in which two recent incidents recorded by FDD were excluded by White House.
One exclusion was the trial and execution in Iraon of Jamshid Sharmahd (who wasn't a US citizen). Iran had accused him of masterminding or directing terrorist attacks, most notably the 2008 bombing of a Hosseinieh mosque in Shiraz that killed 14 people and injured over 200. Iranian authorities claimed he worked under direction from Western intelligence agencies, the U.S., and Israel. Even the Trump White House wasn't prepared to include his trial and execution as "terrorism".

The November 2024 charges were against Iranian Farhar Shakeri and two New Yorkers. justice.gov/archives/opa/p…

Shakeri (while in Iran) was subsequently interviewed by FBI by telephone. A Grayzone article on March 6, 2026 thegrayzone.com/2026/03/06/isr… describes the resulting gong show (which I will not attempt to summarize here.)Image
Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stephen McIntyre

Stephen McIntyre Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ClimateAudit

Aug 12, 2025
Here's a listing of Minority HPSCI Staff in early 2017. Most of the redactions in yesterday's release can be identified here. Image
In two of the 302s, WHISTLEB described the HPSCI Democrat system for exfiltrating secret information from a secure room in a three letter agency: presumably FBI, from which copies and notes were prohibited.

As a work-around, three HPSCI Democrat staffers would attend the Secure Room and, after each visit, "would immediately compose summaries" on a standalone computer set up in a back room by "committee's network administrator" for exclusive use by "Russian team" members. After the three Russian team members had completed their visit summaries, they briefed certain other staffers.

All of the names underneath the redactions can be plausibly identified from contemporary HPSCI Democrat staff rosters as shown below.Image
Here is a transcription of each of the two descriptions of the Russian team and secondary briefees, showing character counts.

The Russian Team had two 16s (at least one with LN8) and an 11. (number denotes character count of full name.)

The secondary briefees were a 6+5 (12), two 13s (one a 5+7), an 11, and the communications director (a 14). One of the 13s was a new hire.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 31, 2025
Durham Classified Appendix is almost entirely about "Clinton Plan". Unsurprisingly, nothing about the post-election events during which Russiagate collusion hoax actually metastasized under FBI and CIA into a national flesh-eating disease.
Emails from Lenny Benardo of Soros' Open Society Foundation feature prominently. Note that Benardo was mentioned in a Washington Post article by Demirjan and Devlin Barrett on May 24, 2017 (a few days after Mueller appointment) - archive archive.is/w43O2 reporting that the email had been dismissed by FBI as "unreliable". DWS, Benardo and Renteria said at the time that they had never been interviewed by FBI.Image
Image
Fool_Nelson proposed Julie Smith as Foreign Policy Advisor-2 in Durham report at the time:
Here's a July 27, 2016 email (attributed to Benardo) which contains a detail relevant to the argument against @DNIGabbard's first drop, claiming that Russian interference concern was NEVER about election infrastructure, but always about DNC hack and Buff Bernie memes. Here Benardo talks about how to make Russia "a domestic issue" by raising the spectre of a "critical infrastructure threat for the election". Brennan subsequently did just that: raised concern about "infrastructure threat". ODNI played down that threat in their briefings and ultimately in the proposed post-election PDB of December 8, 2016 which was cancelled by Obama intervention.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22, 2025
the ICA version in the recent DNI documents is a different version (dated January 5, 2017) than the released version (dated January 6, 2017). There were many changes overnight - some substantive.

Before editorializing, I'll laboriously go through comparisons - final version on left, previous day version on right. (I apologize for not marking this on each of the following slides.)Image
The Jan 6, 2017 version contained a preface entitled "Background... The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution", not present in the Jan 5 version (as shown). It has two sections.

The first section entitled "The Analytic Process" stated that these assessments "adhere to tradecraft standards".

"On these issues of great importance to US national security, the goal of intelligence analysis is to provide assessments to decisionmakers that are intellectually rigorous, objective, timely, and useful, and that adhere to tradecraft standards."

Now recall the dispute over inclusion of Steele dossier information in the ICA as an appendix and, as we recently learned, as a bullet supporting the assessment that Putin "aspired" to help Trump. Some IC professionals objected to the inclusion of Steele dossier information on the grounds that it did not meet tradecraft standards for inclusion in an ICA. Comey, McCabe and FBI insisted on its inclusion on the grounds that Obama had said to include "everything" - which they interpreted as mandating inclusion of Steele dossier information even though it didn't meet tradecraft standards.

Reasonable people can perhaps disagree on whether this was justified or not. What was not justified was the claim that the inclusion decision complied with "tradecraft standards". It was bad enough to include non-compliant material, but the claim that the included material "adhered to tradecraft standards" was miserably false. The recent Tradecraft Review should have addressed this fault.Image
Image
Image
The preface also included the following assertion:
"The tradecraft standards for analytic products have been refined over the past ten years. These standards include describing sources (including their reliability and access to the information they provide), clearly expressing uncertainty, distinguishing between underlying information and analysts’ judgments and assumptions, exploring alternatives, demonstrating relevance to the customer, using strong and transparent logic, and explaining change or consistency in judgments over time."

The "past ten years" here refers to the period of time since the savage tradecraft review by the WMD Commission, an excellent repot on a previous intelligence failure of similar scale to the Russia collusion hoax as an //intelligence failure// - which it was (even if non-criminal).

They state that "standards include describing sources (including their reliability and access to the information they provide)". Now apply that to the description of the Steele network in the classified appendix (declassified and released in 2020) shown below and transcribed as follows:
"the source is an executive of a private business intelligence firm and a former employee of a friendly foreign intelligence service who has been compensated for previous reporting over the past three years. The source maintains and collects information from a layered network of identified and unidentified subsources, some of which has been corroborated in the past. The source collected this information on behalf of private clients and was not compensated for it by the FBI".

This description does not remotely comply with the warranty in the Preface. We know that Steele (the "source") had told the FBI that his information was funneled through a "Russian-based sub-source" who Steele refused to identify. Steele did however tell the FBI that Sergei Millian was one of the sub-subsources to the "Russian-based sub-source". By mid-December 2016, the FBI had figured out that Steele's "Russian-based sub-source" was Igor Danchenko, an alumnus of U of Louisville, Georgetown and Brookings Institute, who lived in northern Virginia and had an American-born daughter. A fulsome description of sources IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE WARRANTY IN THE PREFACE would have included these details and more.

It would have also stated that the FBI planned to interview the Primary Sub-Source as soon as possible. Given the importance of the document, the obvious question from any sane reviewer of the draft ICA would be: "uh, why don't you interview Steele's Primary Sub-Source right now? Today? " "And, by the way, why are you saying that he is 'Russian-based' when he lives in northern Virginia?"

If the reviewers had known that Steele's Primary Sub-Source had lived in northern Virginia and was available for interview, maybe they would have said: "uh, maybe we should hold off this ICA until we talk to Danchenko. This is a big document, maybe we should do some due diligence". But they weren't given that option, because Danchenko's location in northern Virginia was concealed from them. The warranty in the prefatory Background was false.

Subsequently, a few weeks later, when the FBI interviewed Danchenko and he revealed that there wasn't any "layered network" and that the key allegations were based (at best) on an anonymous phone call and that many of the sourcing claims in the dossier were untrue, the intelligence community had an obligation to fess up. To retract their claims about the Steele dossier, which, by the end of January, had emerged in public consciousness as the driving predicate of the Russia collusion investigation. Once the FBI knew that the sourcing claims were fraudulent, they had an obligation to disclose that to the rest of the IC and to publicly disown the Steele dossier, which had become important to the public precisely because of its endorsement in the ICA.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 14, 2025
Trump's latest tariff venture is a 50% tariff on copper, ostensibly for national security reasons. Copper markets are something that I analysed in the 1970s; so I know the structure of the markets and statistics. I was even been involved as a junior analyst in a trade case about US copper tariffs.

Under the US Defense Production Act, Canada is considered "domestic production" for the purposes of national security, but neither Trump nor the Canadian government seem to have had any interest in this legislation.

I remember the difficulties of trying to make long-term forecasts of copper supply and demand. Copper is also a market with voluminous statistics maintained consistently for a very long period. US Geological Survey for US consumption and primary production of refined copper for 1950-2024 are shown below. As someone who, in the 1970s, actually thought about what this chart would look like, it was interesting to re-visit.

In the 1920s and 1930s, US copper company were industrial behemoths: Anaconda, Kennecott, Phelps Dodge and Asarco, all now forgotten, were among the top 20 or top 50 US stocks back in the day. In the 1970s, they were still major companies. US accounted for about 25% of world production and consumption.

But, as you can see, since 2000, both US primary production and US refined consumption have declined precipitously. US refined consumption is now at lower levels than in the 1970s and US primary production is less than the early 1950s.

What will be the impact of a 50% tariff on copper imports? In the next post, I'll show how the changes in US market compare to world production.Image
although US copper production has declined since the 1970s, world copper production has almost quadrupled. US share of world copper refined production (here primary plus secondary scrap) has decreased from about 25% to 3%.

US copper production and consumption no longer dominate world markets - despite what the Beltway may imagine. An approximate 3% share doesn't get to dictate prices.

That means that the 50% copper tariff will be borne entirely by US copper consumers (i.e. manufacturers using copper). US producers will almost certainly increase their price to match the price of imports. So the tariff will be a bonanza for US domestic producers (e.g. Freeport McMoran) and a burden for US manufacturers.Image
the copper data also shows a vignette into the remarkable change in world economic geography since 9/11. In 2001, US still produced more copper than China. In 2024, China produced more than 13(!) times as much copper as USA. This isn't just production, but also consumption. Chinese manufacturers consume most of their copper production; their copper consumption is accordingly an order of magnitude greater than US copper consumption.

So when Trump puffs about the importance of USA as a market, this is simply not true of a basic commodity like copper. And I'm skeptical that it is true for other basic commodities.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 9, 2025
on first page: Brennan's lawyer, Robert Litt, was General Counsel at ODNI in 2016 and involved in some key events. Litt published an article in October 2017 lawfaremedia.org/article/irrele… which claimed that "The dossier itself played absolutely no role in the coordinated intelligence assessment that Russia interfered in our election." The recent Tradecraft Review, abysmal as it was, admitted that the dossier was cited in the classified ICA as a bullet support for the claim that Putin "aspired" to help Trump get elected.Image
Image
@15poundstogo very Clintonian here Image
Brennan refers here to two press releases issued by William Evanina in July and August 2020. The Evanina statements were prompted in large part by the release of Biden-Poroshenko tapes by Ukrainian parliamentarian Andrii Derkach (who had previously in October 2016 published receipts showing that Hunter Biden was getting paid $1 million per year by Burisma). Shortly after Evanina's statements, "Trump" administration sanctioned Derkach. As a result of these sanctions, Derkach was de-platformed and the Biden-Poroshenko tapes were deleted from nearly all locations. One of the tapes showed that Poroshenko and Biden gloated in August 2016 about the removal of Manafort as Trump campaign chair as a result of Ukrainian interference (Black Ledger announcement.)Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 13, 2025
New thread on new information from redactions.

I just noticed that the information in Binder on Trump briefing in Aug 2016 was previously published by Grassley in July 2020, a few days after identification of Steele Primary Sub-source (and thus we, in this corner, were otherwise preoccupied).
grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

The new version sheds light on a previous redaction. Katrina, Norm, Ted, John and Amir were mentioned. Just noting this for future reference.Image
something else that I'm noticing in the less redacted documents: Kevin Clinesmith was much more prominent in Crossfire Hurricane operation than we previously realized.

In real time, Hans, myself and others had vehemently and savagely criticized Durham's useless plea agreement with Clinesmith that had failed to use their leverage over Clinesmith to obtain a road map of the Russiagate hoax operation. Compare for example Mueller's use of leverage over Rick Gates to interview him about 20 times, If anything, there was more leverage over Clinesmith.

Durham's failure to lever Clinesmith looks worse and worse as we now see Clinesmith's name in multiple Crossfire documents that had previously been redacted.

For example, here is Clinesmith on August 30, 2016 - early days of Russiagate hoax - approving the reporting of FBI surveillance of Trump and Flynn while they were supposedly providing a counterintelligence briefing.

In this briefing, they failed to give Trump and Flynn the same warning about Turkey that they had previously given Clinton's lawyers.Image
here's an example where the "declassified" Binder contains a redaction not made in the version published by Grassley almost five years ago. the name of Edward (Ted) Gistaro of ODNI Image
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(